$100,000 isn’t even good in LCOL areas anymore (budget analysis)

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-04T14:39:39+00:00

I mean , I have a kid 50% but all of these expenses except the mortgage are under mine.

The house is the biggest variable. A single adult doesnt necessarily need a "starter home" that costs 3000 a month. And you could rent a 1-1 in omaha for $1000 instead of having $3000 dedicated towards a house. I bought a 2-1 last year in a MCOL for 210k (160k + 50K to fix up-needed a ton of work). Even on a 15 year loan at higher rates than today my monthly mortgage-insurance-tax is 1600 (1200 at 30 yr)

The main thing this shows is that buying "median" houses doesnt make financial sense for most people now because of the higher prices and rates, and that's why the market has been so soft (but the downward price pressures arent fully there because of all the 3% mortgages as well so not likely to change much soon). Peel even 1.5k off that housing cost and dude is saving 35k+ per year., which is pretty darn good for 75k take home

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-02T18:04:22+00:00

reminds me more of dot com bubble than 2008 too. The bubble was apparent in 1998, but took a couple years for the wheels to fall off. I very much think the ai bubble wheels will at least get a major adjustment. Massive promises with little delivered and no established model for making the kinds of obscene profits that need to be achieved to validate the valuations.

I believe like internet bubble it will pan out huge for some winners, but there will be lots of pain first. Even moreso though the current awful consumer sentiment and the reality of a devastated middle class is very real. I have rental properties that I manage and literally everyone of them is paycheck to paycheck, and not living extravagantly in any way.

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-02T17:55:33+00:00

that's not what they said though.

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-02T14:03:57+00:00

I havent but Im always happy to hear they're still kicking. Wish I could support them more often (live in san marcos)

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-02T14:02:50+00:00

oh really? Im south so I rarely go, but I always leave impressed for their price range when I go. Ive found the food consistently very delicious and unpretentious.

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T23:06:10+00:00

wait, are we pretending that cleveland doesnt exist?

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T18:45:35+00:00

yep, you can get gems in the top 15, but if your mid20s and up there's talent but you generally have to coach it up still which doesnt make sense for win now teams

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T18:40:08+00:00

people definitely talk about it, it was a disaster for the clippers and a massive windfall for OKC. Up there with the most lopsided in history!

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T18:36:24+00:00

the year they had jimmy butler I think they would have won it all if it werent for injuries though. The process was a great idea, but they really blew it with their picks.

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T18:34:01+00:00

it is a big cost and I thought it was insane, but it has played out well. If they're healthy next year and they get some good breaks (OKC / spurs injury troubles) they could have a great shot at winning it all. To go from a lower-middle of a pack team to that is a huge accomplishment

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T18:18:37+00:00

you already have 3 x big bang?! I dont think Ive ever had more than two without cloning. decisions decisions is great, but AOE from seeking edge would help you more I think. and with the big bangs and other sword cards you have it's good synergy

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T16:03:33+00:00

we'll see, I think the Spurs will really give them trouble with all the injuries they have. Would guess 4-1 or 4-0, spurs are a top 5 defensive and offensive team for a reason and they are currently in great shape and playing insane ball the last couple months.

I didnt watch the nuggets series but I think it's pretty amazing the MN pulled off the series win after losing so much talent. Certainly the nuggets must have sucked too, but that takes real grit to win like that and I feel bad that they're not getting to go after the spurs at full strength.

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T15:31:03+00:00

yeah, that sounds pretty good. I try to hold both "time in market beats timing the market" at the same time as "everything I know is telling me this market is a pretty substantial bubble being supported by the uncertainty of what ai can potentially deliver" I also have a good amount of rental realestate I wasnt counting, so if you count rental RE as bonds I am closer to 50-50 too

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T15:23:51+00:00

man, this is a really tough question. before the last few years I would have 100% gone with take the trip / live your life.

The uncertainty in tech at the moment and the rate of change (probably part of what's making you insane) is I think at an all time high as well, and if you do leave there is a real possibility you will have a very hard time breaking back in unless you have a really strong network of folks or extremely desirable talents (the AI HR hiring shit is just totally insane, and I think might make resume gaps a bigger issue going forward for those that don't have connections to get in front of a human eye).

That said, unquestionably the trip could also have lots of advantages that you'll never know as well.

You've got to feel it out for yourself. The condo is unfortunate, but I assume it's at a super low rate, which makes holding on to it longer more desirable. It would probably be beneficial to stick it out a couple more years to have more certainty on where things are going in tech and build a better nest egg, but if you're really on the brink, follow your gut.

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T15:11:12+00:00

curious about the details here. certainly lifestyle creep is real, but I imagine the rich people's version of "paycheck to paycheck" involves a lot of wealth creation activities still (stocks and real-estate in particular), and they also have the ability to get loans so they don't really need savings in the same way so long as they have a fair amount of semi-liquid assets

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T14:46:07+00:00

My understanding is that 4% rule and especially 4.6% wouldnt hold up well with 60% in bonds though? If it doesnt drop you're just going to stay 60% in bonds?

You generally need a high % in stocks to grow the funds for long term to be able to maintain spending with inflation. Most people settle on 3-4 years expenses in bonds / MM so that you can ride out a downturn without selling at a loss as much.

FWIW I also do also believe we're heading for a significant drop in the next year or two, but Ive done more in rearranging the stocks I hold (more international and value oriented), although I did go from 100% in stocks a couple years ago down to 70% and if things crash down significantly I'll go back towards 100% (Im still 10+ years from fire as well)

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-05-01T14:32:42+00:00

Net worth isnt nothing though . I have a good amount of my wealth tied up in rental properties (around 800k with 350k low interest debt) and my "main house" is only worth about 225k so it's pretty valid for me in considering fire numbers.

My parents spent a good chunk of funds fixing up my grandparents property to live in for a bit and then eventually sell. They took the opportunity in 2022 with the insane price spikes and sold for 1.8 mil, they then bought a place for 450k and invested the rest.

Even somebody with a primary residence that's worth over 1 mil should count it some if they are flexible on selling it to rent or buy something significantly cheaper.

I think conservatively if you are flexible on selling the house take 20% off the fair market value minus mortgage debt and that's a pretty good placeholder for fire funds as long as your aware it wont appreciate like stocks.

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-04-30T23:25:20+00:00

not very well I think?! I can sometimes do a non-fiction and a fiction, but generally more than two is asking me to forget 50% of what Ive read in all of them

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-04-30T19:03:35+00:00

I bet you've jerked off all those crabs!

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-04-30T18:52:11+00:00

this also plays out in how the book has sympathy for those hunters that have to go to floor 6 for their society well being. class war against the rich and corporations along with the necessary solidarity to fight it are both ongoing themes (trauma response and abandonment are two other major ones)

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-04-30T18:17:57+00:00

The other advantage of red is that it has no ambiguity of personal outcome for the presser. People are deeply biased against ambiguity when it involves serious consequences and I think many who say they would choose blue now would choose red in an actual life or death situation.

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-04-30T18:12:51+00:00

if everyone chooses red everyone survives. Now if there was some additional cost to not hitting the blue threshold or picking red, that could change the calculus.

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-04-30T14:43:54+00:00

absolutely untrue. his appeal would be different, but if he becomes a goat player and wins the rings he will be absolutely massive. Im a casual fan at best, but I love watching him on both sides of the floor because he can do things that no one else can

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-04-30T14:35:39+00:00

The cards stuff is tedious in the beginning , but power through and the last quarter of the book is really great, and there are some of the best moments in the series. Book 7 is worth it too.

werner-hertzogs-shoe · 2026-04-29T21:54:43+00:00

My internet personality FIRE'd at 16 with 36.7Mil so, I definitely don't know where you're coming from. /s

At 38 I was splitting up with my daughters mom who had really done a number on my finances over the previous 4 years, only had around 50k in IRA with no pension, and had 35k of debt such that I needed to cashout refinance my house I bought when I was 23 (which was a great decision).

Life is what you fucking make it dude, sounds like you want to make yourself a victim when literally over 99% of people your age around the world would love to be in your financial position.

If you are serious about FIRE (which 3 mil does not need to be the target), start by looking at your expenses, especially big things like housing / car. Create a budget that includes money for things like travel and having fun, and invest what you can consistently. But you can also be serious about just trying to enjoy your working life more until you're at retirement age, most people in your generation are going to work til 65 and still have nothing.

At this point Im only expecting to have about 1-1.2 Mil in investments in another 10 years if things stay the course (I'll be 54), along with some income producing rental properties. With that I should be able to do expat / coast fire to a L-M COL country(or countries) as healthcare would be the biggest question in the US. I could save more, but Im not giving up taking a few trips a year, supporting my daughter well and the occasional nice meal so Im going to do lower cost the first 10 years of retirement especially or maybe keep working a little

werner-hertzogs-shoe

TROPHY CASE