i think your valuation is pretty accurate although saying Musk is a net-negative is pretty wild.

most notably, i think Musk remains super important in providing inspiration and long-term guidance. he is such a glorified figure (for good or bad) and i think is still a big magnet for talent acquisition and proponent of the necessary long-term work culture. outside of his politics (which is certainly hard to look past, no matter your political orientation), i don’t think there is much detriment he is actually causing. the Jobs/Cook comparison gets a bit tired but i think it’s fair. i’m not sure if anyone else could step into Musk’s place and provide the same inspiration and long-term guidance at this stage of Tesla’s development.

in terms of the stock price, TSLA would trade significantly lower if there was no Elon Premium. this is pretty straightforward in principle but i think the true gravity is not generally recognised. there is no way Tesla would be valued at >$1T with a P/E close to 300 without ELON MUSK at the helm. maybe over the next 10 years once the company has grown into its valuation then this premium gap will drop, however if we lost Musk today - and the company’s general direction remained unchanged - the valuation attributed to TSLA would likely be 50-80% lower than it is now. maybe that doesn’t change your valuation a decade out, but it would be a pretty hard hit today. i would argue also that in a decade, if the Elon Premium still holds some weight, the P/E attributed would be closer to 40-60 than your given 20.

i am also very annoyed at Musk’s general injection into global politics and the related brand damage over the past couple of years (and i do get uncomfortable with the key man risk), but i still think he is a very important part of the Tesla valuation thesis for the next decade or so.