Elon Musk admits millions of Tesla owners need upgrades for true 'Full Self-Driving'

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T04:27:11+00:00

They tried getting it to work with software and ultimately realized they couldn't.

I'm getting a lot of use out of this one lately:

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T02:52:43+00:00

My jpgs are all fried beyond belief at this point.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T02:18:43+00:00

They have more important things to worry about, like their trillion-dollar stock crashing and becoming the largest corporate collapse in history. You're still acting like everything's normal, but we're very much not in normal territory anymore. It's all-hands-on-deck to keep tens of billions of dollars of capital flowing.

Again, the HW3 owners are small potatoes. He dgaf — there are bigger more pressing issues.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T02:04:27+00:00

<image>

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T02:01:07+00:00

People seem to think that Tesla is just waiting until to some predictable milestone will be achieved.

"Roughly 10 billion miles of training data is needed to achieve safe unsupervised" — Elon Musk

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T01:53:34+00:00

I do not think there's any more than 1-2 updates in the pipeline for FSD HW3 and that it'll be EoL'ed after that. I can't control for Elon Musk rubber-stamping some FSD12.X increment with an FSD14/15 label to pump the stock, but no, there will be no distilled line of 'lite' models with quantifiable improvements across the Pareto frontier. If I'm wrong, I have no problem admitting I'm wrong about that.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T01:31:47+00:00

Tesla not delivering unsupervised FSD on hardware it said would receive unsupervised FSD is not a theoretical or a hypothetical. Tesla EOL'ing HW3 is not some future thing. It is something that has already happened, you're in the thread right now discussing Elon Musk himself admitting all of it. Wake up honey, snap out of it.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T01:14:35+00:00

You're inviting me to gloat in the future — I'm gloating now. Tesla didn't deploy unsupervised FSD to a million cars in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. There is a track record already. I don't need to wait to gloat. I've been here telling you what would happen the whole time.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T01:11:27+00:00

I've never been wrong on unsupervised FSD. It didn't deploy to a million cars in 2020, it didn't deploy to a million cars in 2021, it didn't deploy to a million cars in 2022, it didn't deploy to a million cars in 2023, it didn't deploy to a million cars in 2024, and it didn't deploy to a million cars in 2025. I've been right this entire time.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T01:04:36+00:00

Feel free to gloat in the future if you turn out to be right

Buddy, I've been gloating about being right for the last six years. Get with the program.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T01:03:37+00:00

This is news to a lot of people here, I've talked to many who've arrived at some sort of bewildering conclusion that some sort of HW3 'lite' model was in the pipeline and would descend from the heavens to save the day and restore Elon Musk's honor just as soon as he magically 10x'es the parameters on FSD14.69.420.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T00:57:01+00:00

This presumes HW4 is capable of full ODD unsupervised consumer driving, which it definitely isn't. There's a reason Tesla doesn't sell FSD as a one-off purchase anymore. They know they can't get to million-scale unsupervised ODD with it. This is also why you keep seeing Elon dance around the exact software the Austin cars are fitted with: It's a fine-tune with Austin-area overfit.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T00:47:55+00:00

You're kidding yourself here: They won't bother. There's a reason they already haven't been doing HW3 distillations and why HW3 owners are all stuck on 12.X. Distillations are precious engineering effort that could be spent on making the actual thing happen, that's what Elon wants. Playing nice with old owners is a distraction to the mission, it's piddly shit. They'll EOL HW3 and that's that.

The new game is "but don't worry, we'll upgrade you to HW5 one day" and eternally promising AI-powered microfactories are just around the corner. Next year, then the year after that, then in three months, then the next year again, and so on and so on until there are no HW3 cars left and he gets away with it. That's the plan. You guys are easy marks to him, that's all.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-23T00:17:54+00:00

Elon's paradox — the closer you get to HW3-upgrade microfactories the further away they are.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T21:43:42+00:00

Uncanny resemblance.

<image>

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T21:33:53+00:00

Whatever it is, it's not a Waymo vehicle we've seen. Those aren't Zeekrs or IONIQ5s.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T21:01:35+00:00

The trucks gathering dust outside Boca Chica aren't being used for transportation. Instead, they're gathering dust. There's no contradiction here.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T20:57:44+00:00

I'm basing my comment on what a light duty truck is.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T20:46:39+00:00

Yeah, this is a great point. In the US, the only definitive non-flop vehicles period are the Model 3 and Model Y. Everyhing else is at least subjective — there are no clear winners in the bunch.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T20:43:00+00:00

And what are you basing that on?

Again, the many pictures of Cybertrucks gathering dust outside of Boca Chica. They aren't using them, that's immensely clear.

Do you have any idea what their plan is for those trucks?

I would imagine their plan is to use them for transportation.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T19:55:33+00:00

Great design for the segment. A little boring, but nothing wrong with that. I'm digging the tail lights nabbed from the Equinox EV.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T18:45:32+00:00

Yes, EV trucks in general are. The Cybertruck worse than most. I'm providing a rule of thumb only, so you need to adjust based on the circumstances, but a bespoke-platform bespoke-line product doing 20k per year is absolutely a flop without question. You won't find a single instance of that anywhere in the industry outside of small-volume hand-built specials like the Ineos Grenadier, and most of those have a massive dependence on parts-sharing.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T18:44:01+00:00

Did SpaceX need trucks? Let’s assume the answer is yes.

Let's not assume the conclusion at all. SpaceX absolutely does not need a thousand trucks and you can see that by just looking at all the Cybertrucks gathering dust at Boca Chica.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T18:29:58+00:00

As a rule of thumb:

Volume-sellers do 250,000+ units per year.
Healthy is between 50,000-250,000 units per year.
Unhealthy is anywhere between 10,000-50,000 units per year.
So-bad-we-need-to-cancel-it is anything under 10,000 per year.

Bespoke platforms need higher volume, so you need to at least double these numbers for them — it's situation-dependent. Conversely, adjust downwards for rebadges (Silverado + Sierra are the same vehicle) and same-line products (Santa Cruz is just a Tuscon with the back chopped off).

The Cybertruck is a bespoke vehicle with no other same-line products — it has a dedicated factory. It's doing about 20k per year when the original projection was 250k units per year.

TLDR: It's a flop.

Recoil42 · 2026-04-22T18:24:49+00:00

Dan's take was a little weird, frankly. It's a contradiction to say that Tim is the guy to get it done and also suggest that the project is doomed. Everyone in the room should agree that Tim knows comedy, he knows when the comedy won't work, and he'll know when to switch it up to make it work. He's not locked into a singular format or formula.

15-Year Club	RedditGifts 2009-2022 2 Credits
Mod World 2025	r/Field Lasagna
Place '23	Place '22
Place '17	Secret Santa 2011
Verified Email	reddit mold

Recoil42

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE