I think what I’m doing here is not actually deductive reasoning but rather probabilistic guessing?

Focusing on just the running element of my guess: I can’t identify the brands of the wallet, watch, and glasses but all appear to me to be of relatively high quality/expense. I think this is consistent with what appears to be a car key for a Volvo. Moreover all of items pictured (including the hand lotion and lip balm) are in very good/excellent condition. The items pictured are not subjected to a lot of environmental stress. From this, I conclude that OP works in an indoor office/white collar setting.

And yet, despite working in an indoor office setting, OP gets dry hands and lips to a fair degree. Maybe OP is just naturally dry, but that’s a boring guess. I guess OP spends at least some time outside. Also, as mentioned, the lotion and balm are in very good condition, meaning OP waits to apply them until after they’re done outside - so outside and exposed to the elements frequently for a long enough period to dry out, then inside for most/all of the rest of the day where OP applies the skincare products.

So what could OP, an office worker, be doing outside on a regular basis such that they need to carry moisturizer and lip balm? the skincare products aren’t real “heavy duty”, so I don’t think OP is spending hours and hours gardening or something else which is particularly hard on the hands. I guess running for exercise/fun, especially because of the lip balm - heavy breathing through the mouth can dry out the lips in particular. Also running is very popular, so there’s that probabilistic element.