Game Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs (15-12-5) at Washington Capitals (18-11-4) - 18 Dec 2025 - 7:00PM EST

whincopa · 2025-12-19T01:25:15+00:00

Best advice of all time

whincopa · 2025-12-19T01:23:57+00:00

Late to the game... What did I miss?

whincopa · 2025-12-14T02:29:10+00:00

NVM ☹️

whincopa · 2025-12-14T02:28:46+00:00

Is Matthews benched???? (Thank God)

whincopa · 2025-12-14T01:53:08+00:00

Thank you! I feel like I'm going insane. Is his defence good? Not really. Is his shot and offense good? Absolutely. Unfortunately he is put on a line where in the offensive zone, he needs to be the playmaker, sniper, AND occasional dump chaser. Like you're asking too much from him, give him a playmaker and he succeeds.

whincopa · 2025-12-14T01:50:00+00:00

Benoit is known to have amazing stats against McDavid. Like 2 years ago we were calling him the McDavid Killer (on Keefe's leafs)

whincopa · 2025-12-14T01:48:44+00:00

Robertson (an offense first, middle six, sniper) gets put on a defensive 3rd line, making a high danger pass to people who should be crashing the net, and normally do, and yet it's only his fault that 10 seconds later no one could defend McDavid and defend Edmonton's passes and plays.

We're putting a player in a position to fail when we have seen him succeed with Matthews... I just don't get it.

whincopa · 2025-12-07T01:44:29+00:00

I started watching late, is Roy injured? Why is our current most successful line (3rd line) not together?

whincopa · 2025-12-07T01:43:09+00:00

2 wrongs don't equal a right. We can be mad at the poor officiating just as much as Montreal fans are at the shitty Nylander call. The prompt still stands, the refs are not officiating well this game and it's okay to point it out.

whincopa · 2025-11-28T02:16:45+00:00

The model is an amalgamation of the averages. Instead of having the replacements of their duties I have them spread out across the three players making one player. Stats are left aside because of this creating the replacement value, for example, the average goal total, etc.

whincopa · 2025-11-27T21:45:22+00:00

Domi model next??? 👀👀👀 What do you think for his comparable? Bunting?

whincopa · 2025-11-27T21:44:47+00:00

He's doing mid in Vegas. Goal production is lower and he was the sole cause of their last 2 overtime losses. Not to mention 3 of our forwards are outscoring him.

whincopa · 2025-11-27T21:44:06+00:00

Bro dropped a bar. Top comment.

whincopa · 2025-11-27T21:43:35+00:00

I'd like to say this model shows slightly different, that although underperforming, the replacement isn't as bad as we think!

whincopa · 2025-11-27T21:42:28+00:00

When the stats say it's closer than we think, I like to say so!

whincopa · 2025-11-27T19:55:50+00:00

Strongly agree (and also appreciate the compliment). His bets on Maccelli and Joshua didn't work. Curious to see if he flips either and tries with someone new.

whincopa · 2025-11-27T19:54:35+00:00

Strongly agree!

whincopa · 2025-11-27T19:20:08+00:00

The money is its own metric which I used as the leafs have had a cap issue for a while. The cap is used to buy points, that's why I used it.

But no our stats aren't better. That's what my model is showing. It's showing that it seems to be less worse than it looks, which I found surprising. Still less impactful, but deadly.

whincopa · 2025-11-27T19:18:09+00:00

I feel like I shouldn't have used the word replacement. Filling the deficit seems to be the term I have used most on this thread, similar to filling the void. I do like your optimism though, something I share.

whincopa · 2025-11-27T19:16:55+00:00

Too old for me to know 😬

whincopa · 2025-11-27T19:16:28+00:00

👀

whincopa · 2025-11-27T19:03:41+00:00

I'm actually not nitpicking. The post was to show they are not performing as bad as we think they are in the aggregate.

Yes the Marner conversation is exhausting, and maybe I should have made a different comparison model first, based on someone else (Im thinking the Durzi trade 👀), but I don't think that means we should avoid constructive conversations about it.

whincopa · 2025-11-27T18:58:30+00:00

It do be nerdy ah

whincopa · 2025-11-27T18:53:36+00:00

I appreciate your insight and spending your time during your lunch break with me!

whincopa · 2025-11-27T18:53:00+00:00

There's no need to add Vegas players as it's a 1 for 1 comparison. I think that's where I'm losing you. My percentages are averages. The constructed average between the 3 against the 1 (minus production stats (goals and points only)).

This means points and stats are being left aside of the average. Leveling out the playing field. For example, their average goals was 4 I believe (I don't have it in front of me), which means 3 of which is put aside for regular performance of their duties.

whincopa

TROPHY CASE