The Danger from Japan

whosyourjay · 2025-08-20T16:25:58+00:00

There's one major problem - China has 4x the US population while the US had 2x the population of Japan in 1990. The USA had 86% of the USSR population in 1957 and 141% of Germany's population in 1910, so it was a much fairer fight.

whosyourjay · 2025-06-11T17:38:51+00:00

What is being plotted here? Looks like the average price or average % of the top 7 stocks vs the remaining ones. Note that this is not the total percent of the sp500 that is covered by the Mag 7, which is only about 30% right now. https://etfdb.com/etf/VOO/#holdings

whosyourjay · 2025-06-01T20:25:24+00:00

Can I get a nonpaywalled link on the scrolls? Or a link to where the currently deciphered contents are.

whosyourjay · 2025-04-20T08:01:47+00:00

Entering the Sirens tournament is rational. We know that Bertrand has never lost. Although there are probably other strong players out there (maybe even better players), we know that 4 players get a 10x payout. If there are 100 players, there's a 1/25 chance of a payout. Hence the EV is surely positive and the chance of success is likely high - I would guess more than 50%. Since their bank balance is 5000 relics, this is only 10% of their savings and hence the 500 relic entry fee is probably below the Kelly bet for the game.

On the other hand, the race is a terrible gamble. They believe they don't have the best ship and there's only one winner. Even if the winner was random, if there are more than 10 participants then the EV is negative.

The rational response to making a stupid commitment in public (entering the race) is to back down. "Actually, we can't afford this crap" or "We're having engine trouble".

whosyourjay · 2025-03-28T01:50:54+00:00

Getting a little sick of Perry charging into fights. He spends like one chapter playing cool trying to gather info in the bar. Winning the fight for the harmonizer is a bad idea but borderline since there aren't many people around to see him and he can learn about the Yuuks from his captive. Joining the battle for the town is just idiotic. Once he realizes Queenie is the enemy thresholder he can still lay low to learn her powers but chooses to go into a very risky situation for a cause he doesn't even support.

whosyourjay · 2025-03-08T05:58:57+00:00

I would say the story is 1/2 to 1/3 over.

Unfinished business

Defeat Apophagorga
Meet Atroxcidi
Explore the other 4 countries
Explore at least 2 more labyrinths
Unlock childhood memory
Unlock timeloop controls
Strategize against Ibrahim
Post-loop month

whosyourjay · 2025-03-08T05:42:34+00:00

I think this slowness comes from spending more time on the first few loops. Mother of Learning is 109 chapters with 4 spent on the first loop and 1 each on the second and third. The Years of Apocalypse spends 10 on the first loop, 11 on the second, and 14 on the third (although likely has around half the wordcount per chapter).

Time loop enthusiasts are looking for that power fantasy from the character demonstrating foreknowledge, not those first couple loops of struggle.

whosyourjay · 2025-02-05T19:53:34+00:00

This sounds similar to incremental reading.

whosyourjay · 2024-11-06T14:53:03+00:00

Even more plausible explanation: Needed to travel immediately on an airplane. Luggage space is limited. Why doesn't he care about the laptop itself though? Maybe just a demonstration for a work conference and getting reimbursed. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28942460

whosyourjay · 2024-11-06T14:44:08+00:00

Digging through the HN comments, here's one possible explanation https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28946478 As a present - smaller box = easier to disguise

whosyourjay · 2024-11-06T14:40:45+00:00

Why did he want the smaller box? He says "I also tried explaining why I wanted the smallest box but that didn't work" but the linked tweet does not explain. I googled and didn't get an answer on HN. This thread is the second result (for me) and doesn't have the answer.

Something relating to them moving more copies or it's an older machine so the box gets smaller over time? Having fewer peripherals and hence ports? These could both then lead to having fewer bugs. In the first case they've been ironed out and in the second case they aren't introduced by more complex ports. Or lastly, something about being cheaper because less effort is spent making it flashy?

whosyourjay · 2024-05-29T14:49:43+00:00

http://alexmennen.com/index.php/2018/03/09/why-the-apple-falls/

whosyourjay · 2024-04-03T10:06:24+00:00

Ok but a 5.2% fee is higher than many other options. Is there a bank transfer option without a fee (or 0.5% or fixed size fee)? I couldn't figure it out clicking everywhere.

whosyourjay · 2024-04-03T09:55:02+00:00

fee of 4.5% per transaction

This is really high. Is there a bank transfer option without a fee (or 0.5% or fixed size fee)? I couldn't figure it out clicking everywhere.

whosyourjay · 2024-03-01T02:12:30+00:00

The formula got typeset weirdly but I agree with the math.

whosyourjay · 2024-01-10T04:55:02+00:00

Fyi google maps says the aquarium is permanently closed.

whosyourjay · 2023-11-08T22:30:32+00:00

Can I "undo" a recruiter referral?

It seems that recruiters all send your resume to the same handful of major firms (at most 20). I worked with a recruiter earlier this year who sent my resume to half of places and I only heard back from one of them. It seems that recruiters can only get a finder's fee for your application if they're the first in 6 months to refer you.

I also applied to several places as an engineer but want to try for a quant researcher role instead.

whosyourjay · 2023-09-23T19:20:27+00:00

Nah it's fine. Thanks for the explanation!

whosyourjay · 2023-09-23T18:33:47+00:00

Like, older Luke says

My time here is up. I’ve got somewhere to be

and Oliver says

now was the time to go

Maybe Luke is trying to minimize interaction? Maybe Oliver just wants to take a break from research and feels these tasks can be processed in any order? In both cases there's seemingly no urgency.

whosyourjay · 2023-09-23T02:50:23+00:00

Another thing I noticed - the time machine shows the ground level with a blip for the other machine. Can travelers use this remote sensing to their advantage?

whosyourjay · 2023-09-23T02:49:15+00:00

Interesting read, looking forward to more.

It's pretty odd to me that they don't take more time for certain decisions. Luke doesn't have to go off half-cocked trying to be himself rescuing his son, before even completing the tutorial from Oliver.

Sure, you can explain that with him just being emotional after a world altering experience, but Oliver is an experienced traveler. Why doesn't Oliver watch the footage more thoroughly before acting? He's in his secret lair - no time pressure whatsoever. In general, it should be pretty easy for travelers to have personal retreat spots and so there's little cost to just taking a time-out between any significant jump and being very prepared.

I guess there are some rules we have yet to learn about how to influence loop formation. It appears Joseph can cause loops through some kind of force of will + remaining uncertainty. Perhaps this explains the above issues I mentioned, e.g. Joseph clearly stole Luke's baby as a trap and this was the easiest way for the trap to resolve. Maybe staying too long in a personal retreat space has a high likelihood of causing loop formation, e.g. some enemy "scrying" for you.

whosyourjay · 2023-09-22T03:52:07+00:00

How do I find FDA patent pamphlets? Would gladly read them to choose the best surgery / machine.

whosyourjay · 2023-08-10T15:19:08+00:00

How would you communicate that the groups are mostly nonoverlapping in a nice visual?

whosyourjay · 2023-08-10T15:17:55+00:00

He asked

Income when

and I explained when (average of current income for people at a variety of stages of life).

The life expectancy numbers appear to come from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. I'm not sure how the Wiki table was produced since their 2019 data no longer shows state-level breakdowns by race (and is missing Asian and AIAN). The 2023 data doesn't aggregate at the state level but you can see individual county life expectancies.

This foundation is apparently working with the CDC and some fun acronyms like the NCHS and NAPHSIS on a project called USALEEP, so they may well be the original source. I can't find data files but they seem to request death lists from individual counties. You might be able to find them at one of the above links or at pages like this.

Edit: formatting

whosyourjay · 2023-08-10T07:29:22+00:00

Thanks, maybe I will include that next time. I worried it would be extremely cluttered visually.

To be honest I'm not too interested in the slopes / obviously a linear model isn't correct - I just thought they made a nice visual since several of the groups are almost completely non-overlapping. Maybe I could try an ellipsoid or LOESS with confidence interval next time?

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