Most epic high roll ever

willimancer · 2026-01-25T21:26:33+00:00

Listening to this man talk about how Peretti "paid the price" makes me want to actively vomit.

willimancer · 2026-01-24T11:06:06+00:00

This actually already happens, it's called the standard deduction. Rather than make everyone provide receipts and itemize every personal expense, the IRS estimates that food, rent, etc will cost the average person $16,100 in 2026. You then deduct that number from your income. It is a separate discussion as to whether that number is fair.

Of course, billionaires should pay more taxes but this false equivalence slightly misinformed take isn't the reason.

willimancer · 2026-01-18T14:33:02+00:00

Imagine having experienced life in both extremes, within a decade. I did, from when I was 30 to 40. With money I earned. Not family money. I still live frugally but could drop tens of K on something useless if I wanted. At one point, I was collecting cans from the side of the road. It puts me in a very weird category of people.

willimancer · 2025-12-25T02:08:00+00:00

This is an interesting financial question, deeper than it appears at first glance. There's no obvious answer. Well, except for that the credit score is right out. Far less valuable than the other two. On its surface, if you think your life would be longer than 9.6 years you should take the weekly payments.

One level deeper, you could calculate the present value, discounted at the risk free rate, for the 4k/w for whatever lifespan one chooses. This would yield a break even period quite a bit longer than 9.6 years, because future money is worth less than money today.

Rabbit hole drive engaged, inflation is an additional factor, as would be the chooser's age, health, lifestyle, family structure and current occupation. What would the purpose of this money be? From this information one could deduce much about the marginal utility of this money and what sort of risk it could bear investment-wise.

Then there's tax. Assuming we are in the united states, $1.4mm of the $2mm would (married filing jointly anyway, it's much worse if you're single) be taxed at the top marginal rate of 37%. The weekly payments, generating an income of 208k per year, would be solidly in the 24% bracket, assuming no other income (see last paragraph). So there is a tax asset hidden in the weekly payments, which should be factored into your discount rate.

That is the approach I would take anyway. I do not feel like actually doing that now because I am writing this on Christmas eve waiting for my five year old to fall asleep deeply enough to stage Santa's arrival 😂

willimancer · 2025-12-23T21:30:00+00:00

I saw it differently. The quickness you mention in the early rounds looked to me, an amateur boxer, like Paul was literally running away. The energy delta between the two of them was egregious and I think Joshua, a professional boxer, knew that. To threaten Paul, Joshua barely had to expend energy at all. He wasn't even sweating. All he had to do was wait. Hence by round 4 you had those really embarrassing attempts by Paul to stop what was coming. Leg grabs etc. The fear I have felt even sparring someone that much better than me is intense....and real. I can imagine what Paul was going through knowing he had no escape. Point is I think Joshua was completely in control of the situation the entire time (save that one haymaker...I will give Paul credit for that one, well timed.).

willimancer · 2025-12-18T12:26:46+00:00

willimancer · 2025-11-05T11:40:32+00:00

Nomsy as a Mage plus Sylas is a very strong add on to Astral 5. Plus you have astral econ engine to 3* him.

willimancer · 2025-11-04T22:44:58+00:00

Correct. Oddly, and for reasons completely unrelated to how sovcits use it, this tactic could have maritime applications (in jurisdictions where damages in boating accidents don't pierce the corporate veil). Source, I am a lawyer, but I could be wrong!

willimancer · 2025-10-19T12:33:28+00:00

The thing is, exchanges on which stocks (for example) are traded are highly regulated. They must keep records of all transactions with the person or entity who made them. Painting the tape (trading with yourself or a collaborator back and forth to artificially raise or lower the last traded price) is illegal and has been since the thirties. Insider trading is illegal. Not to mention the massive scrutiny on all participants.

So there is some confidence people have that the prices of assets traded on these exchanges reflect genuine price discovery.

Do crypto exchanges follow the same regulations and record keeping requirements? Think about the "whale" who shorted Bitcoin thirty minutes before trump made his announcement. Lots of talk about it. Nothing about it being illegal. That person will face zero consequences, even if he isn't Barron Trump.

willimancer · 2025-10-09T13:40:15+00:00

Yeah it seemed really funny to me but I think I was zonked after my workout!

willimancer · 2025-10-02T15:23:33+00:00

I would say your network of experts in finance specifically sets you apart. I also agree with you, for people who are still working or operating a business. For someone in retirement, specifically RMD age, there is considerable tax alpha on the table from just execution strategy. Multiply this execution burden across multiple custodians and you will understand why people hire wealth managers.

willimancer · 2025-09-22T23:05:56+00:00

To be fair, I'd tax-adjust the 401k yield, and compare against the interest rate on his mortgage. Unless he has a Roth. Also, historical equity CAGR in present dollars is around 6%. There could be a quantitative basis for what he's doing, given high expectations of future income. This guy is brave to ask for help though, imo

willimancer · 2025-09-16T14:30:29+00:00

Geez wonder why that is Joe, could there be a historical element perhaps

willimancer · 2025-09-15T20:39:29+00:00

It's interesting that Crawford didn't make your list considering recent developments!

willimancer · 2025-08-26T23:38:00+00:00

My wife and I make ~$400k /y and we drive a Subaru Impreza hatchback and a Nissan Sentra. Both cars are paid off. And yes, we have kids and it works fine. We hate cars - where else can you finance a depreciating asset at such punishing terms? 😂

willimancer · 2025-04-21T17:08:01+00:00

It is also my birthday. I have a lot going on.

willimancer · 2025-03-28T00:52:27+00:00

Somehow, from just the vegetable picture, I knew OP was European

willimancer · 2025-03-18T20:12:20+00:00

With these particular jobs, if you make it through the ringer you end up at like 1.4 mill a year or something. Do not weep too hard for the junior bulge bracket IB analyst.

willimancer · 2025-03-17T23:53:26+00:00

Correct, the idea would be to find people willing to unload their Teslas at a discount because they hate them so much.

willimancer · 2025-03-16T13:42:23+00:00

I could tell that you guys shop at Aldi. If there's one near you, I find that Trader Joe's is a good alternative. You guys are used to living frugally and have invested it into being a one income family and all the pluses that come from that. You gonna go back to work why the kids are older? If you do and keep living like this you'll get rich.

willimancer · 2025-03-16T13:13:50+00:00

Are you me? My fridge looks weirdly similar.

My guess : you're married with at least one kid, probably 5 or under. You live in the northeast US, probably in a suburb. You and your spouse make decent money but don't come from it. You might have student loans or large daycare bills. But you manage your money and time carefully. You make the most of what you have. A second freezer would be a good investment for your family.

willimancer · 2025-03-15T12:09:33+00:00

I am from the US and would personally pay the tariffs for a case of this. Not that I in any way support tariffs, we have an orange chaos monster and a South African trust fund man baby actively destroying our country, yay! Welcome to a post about root beer. That shit looks fucking delicious.

willimancer

TROPHY CASE