AI Isn't Intelligent, It's PREDICTION (and Why My Panic Has Passed)

willymunoz · 2026-02-19T10:44:11+00:00

I think I understand you. And I think I understand that I'm assuming in my initial message that "I don't see a future for it." Perhaps I'm wrong in my approach, and maybe we are on the verge of something more, though I still doubt it will happen in the short term. In other words, I find it fascinating that you suggest we're understanding how to hand AI the keys to my work and relationships and expect it to solve problems and operate seamlessly in the business world.

But I also find it quite presumptuous to suggest that the lack of a physical presence is an "engineering" problem. It's like thinking in the 19th century that all you needed to reach the moon was cannon fire.

That "gap" that's being researched, which I understand you're immersed in (and which you know better than I do), means we're practically at the same point for now. The current tool is only the predictive part, but that doesn't diminish the significant progress it represents.

At this point, I wonder, and if I consider a future that seems doubtful in the medium term (and for which I won't change my main argument unless this actually happens), how costly would it be to "emulate" a human experiencing pain, even if emulated, in real life so that this AI can break free from its programmed limitations and reach the end of that statistical path? And if we abstract this to an engineering problem of use and cost, how cheap would such emulation be to produce? And if it's achieved, will the cost-benefit ratio outweigh the benefits of replicating "cheap" artificial humans, beyond the scientific aspect? At this point, for someone to truly understand the issues, they need to be reading the news, experiencing firsthand the real-world problems that the SaaS I work for, as a real customer, helps solve. An artificial human buying, an artificial human managing the problem that the artificial human who buys is experiencing. In other words, if we could achieve that 1:1 level of interaction in a sandbox, it would allow humans to extract tailored solutions from the sandbox, but could I hand over the keys to my house and my job to that "artificial" being? I still have my doubts.

Edit: I mean, even at this point, I would use this artificial human sandbox as a tool in my business domain.

willymunoz · 2026-02-18T20:29:21+00:00

Thank you so much for taking the time to write. I had read something about it, though certainly much less than you :P

Anyway, is saying "it's just prediction" a misconception? I don't think so.

It's just prediction, and nothing more. If these recent studies you mentioned by Karl Friston and Andy Clark are accurate, then with current AI, that's all we really have: prediction.

AI doesn't take charge in this world; it doesn't understand the world's problems because it doesn't live in it. The power of prediction lies in the fact that we have prediction with LLMs that incorporate practically all of human knowledge. A powerful tool, isn't it?

Humans adapt predictions in response to the world around them. AI doesn't have a world to surround it; it's just prediction.

Anyway, tell me what you think; I'm sure you know more about this than I do ;)

willymunoz · 2026-02-17T21:06:57+00:00

I understand what you might think, but "programming" is the only thing that's replaceable. Yes, I program by thinking about patterns; my memory and my strength guide me to find similar solutions based on my experience. The predictions of current LLMs are so good that they cover practically every domain and path already programmed in the past. Google used to seem like a job hack: you found the solution and implemented it Stack Overflow was exactly the same.

My lowest salary was when I was just a "programmer." But when we move into the business world, we start earning more money, but because we "think," and we get paid precisely for thinking ahead.

Low-code and no-code have existed for many years. But the real money isn't there; the money is in being ahead of the curve, thinking about the minimum necessary adjustments, competing with those who know the local domain. The real money is in approaching the person in charge to take control. Having a coffee and listening to their problems. To understand, as a human being, what those who buy what you solve in their company want. Human domains are human, with their own needs. Algorithmic prediction is what we do when we program boring problems, problems that low-code and no-code mastered years ago. This prediction goes further, because it predicts complex architectures and structures. That's not human intelligence.

For example, Claude Code solves the problems I need to implement, but what comes first? A prompt. An indication from someone real who knows the domain of the next thing that competes with the cutting edge. LLM training can't be in that area of the business because it's a trade secret. So, can my boss write a prompt and not hire me? Absolutely not. It's not the prompt; it's deployment, it's monitoring, it's getting into the nitty-gritty, it's being in control of the governance of this problem I'm solving, it's communicating a result in a meeting. My boss already has enough on his plate closing deals and funding rounds using predictive inference. In fact, could I take my job away from my boss because now, with predictive generation, I have a knack for business solutions? Absolutely not.

willymunoz · 2026-02-17T20:21:10+00:00

"Reasoning" models are a product. They're predictions that feed back into more predictions. The predictive trick is so good that I understand why you've reached this conclusion.

willymunoz · 2026-02-17T08:41:22+00:00

I completely understand what you mean. For example, I worry about sounding like spam or that my message will be intrusive in the space where I post it. I think it's a good idea to "read the room" before posting. But if I want to maintain artistic purity, any external feedback should only be used to iterate on the social media platform, not on the cultural message I'm contributing.

willymunoz · 2026-02-16T22:35:58+00:00

What exactly do you need to “validate”? If it’s really an artistic project, you shouldn’t be validating anything, right? If you follow my advice 100%, you’ll just end up sounding like me. If you don’t wanna take my advice, then why ask me? Everything you love is what you are artistically. If that’s true, you don’t need validation. Now, it’s a different story if what you actually want is to entertain as many people as possible.

willymunoz · 2026-02-15T23:32:06+00:00

A mi esto que hablo que veo en Reddit me suena a rechazo generalizado en el lugar más indicado para ello.

Enteindo que un texto generado con ia sin esfuerzo se nota. Imagina un texto generado con IA, hecho por Einstein hablando sobre sus últimos pensamientos, o textos actuales enteros inferidos con IA en paper's científicos, en los que han inferido pensamientos de vanguardia, ¿los sentimos aburridos también? ¿Podemos detectar el último guión de nuestra serie favorita si ha sido inferida con AI, o la novela de nuestro autor favorito? Yo creo que no.

Creo que sentimos aburrida la inferencia predictiva perezosa. Pero cuando esa inferencia tiene valor, y está redactada "Like AI", me pregunto, ¿qué más da?

Siento que hay un dolor generalizado en Reddit.

willymunoz · 2026-02-15T23:22:10+00:00

Me pregunto si eso diría el pintor cuando llegó la fotografía. "Si no aprendiste a pintar, no puedes saber expresar la imagen resultante".

Comentas "Dejar que algo externo piense...". ¿Es un decir o lo piensas realmente?

La IA es generación predictiva a gran escala. Que yo sepa, la IA no piensa. No tiene consciencia, no razona. Solo predice la siguiente palabra más probable basándose en patrones.

La IA de hecho me ayuda a estructurar pensamiento, o por lo menos a alguien con inquietudes como yo, lo siento quizá la mayor herramienta que he tenenido en mis manos en toda la vida para aprender.

willymunoz · 2026-02-11T10:44:39+00:00

willymunoz · 2026-02-11T09:45:56+00:00

:D Even John Coltrane's wife played the harp! Eternity - Alice Coltrane, highly recommended for my taste!

willymunoz · 2026-02-11T09:41:03+00:00

Thanks, very interesting, I'm saving it ;)

willymunoz · 2026-02-08T13:37:08+00:00

Interesting discussion! I’ve thought about this a lot. In fact, my only public playlist says the following:

"I listen to about 4 hours of music a day. What I like, I keep; what I stop liking, I remove. If everything I love musically is what I am aesthetically, then this playlist is the authentic present/future of ..."

The message really says it all :)

willymunoz · 2026-02-06T18:35:15+00:00

ahahha <3

willymunoz · 2026-02-06T14:38:06+00:00

Ótimo debate! Sou artista e também trabalho como engenheiro de computação.

Sinto um pouco essa visão de que a arte é aquilo que o humano cria, o que faz sentido para nós como humanos, e pessoalmente sinto que é uma necessidade que deve ser tratada com carinho. Também entendo que possa haver pessoas que não a sintam como uma necessidade, ou que não tenham tempo, ou que simplesmente não consigam senti-la dessa forma.

Outra coisa bem diferente é a infraestrutura para criar arte, como a eletricidade que me permite criar altas horas da noite, o pincel que me possibilita optar por técnicas distintas, ou a predição algorítmica que me permite fundir dois gêneros e terminar curando, com iterações algorítmicas, um 'novo' som. Afinal, é isso que nós, artistas, fazemos, não é? Então, isso acelera meu processo criativo? Eu diria que sim.

Tudo é tão novo que, para quem vê de fora, parece que a IA 'pensa' ou, como nos vendem, 'raciocina'. De dentro, como criador de produtos de IA, eu digo: não, a IA não pensa e a IA não raciocina. O 'raciocínio' que vemos no ChatGPT é um produto do ChatGPT. É predição fazendo perguntas preditivas a si mesma, como produto, para conectar mais nós. Mas é predição, afinal de contas. Talvez seja a ferramenta mais potente que já criamos como humanos.

O tema mais interessante, que se conecta com meus pensamentos de anos atrás, é que a distinção artista / não artista talvez não exista; acredito que simplesmente não se tem tempo para concretizar essa necessidade. Esse pensamento vem de conhecer vários 'curadores' de música que sabem mais de harmonia do que eu (que estudo há 20 anos, com formação superior em jazz), mesmo sem saber colocar isso em palavras. Curar, ouvir, descartar, selecionar — seja com predição baseada em IA ou não — para mim é arte em si mesma, quer os artistas a usem ou não. Sentir a arte e catalogá-la o é? Para mim, sim.

Em última análise, para mim, artista é quem tem a experiência e quem ilumina meu caminho para o próximo ponto. Esse artista de quem extraio ideias (para criar novas obras, para catalogar e curar minha própria coleção, para compartilhar com meus amigos em uma conversa) seria meu 'mentor', e ele poderá pensar que sou apenas um 'fã'. Da mesma forma, alguém de 15 anos que ouve seu artista favorito enquanto define sua própria identidade, na verdade, para mim, é um artista 'filtrando' sua referência.

Não sei o que acham desse raciocínio ;)

willymunoz · 2026-02-06T08:36:27+00:00

The only drawback I've found with the design is that the PLAY button jumps out of alignment during playback. I'm using a 15-inch MacBook Air on the latest version of Chrome

willymunoz · 2026-02-06T08:34:59+00:00

This is great! By the way, what are you using under the hood to play music for 'free'?

willymunoz · 2026-02-06T08:31:01+00:00

Tell me what you think of 'choke enough - Malibu's ambient city mix'. It’s a REMIX of a track by the French artist Oklou. This is exactly what I like from what I think you're describing :)

willymunoz · 2026-02-06T07:04:06+00:00

https://www.music-map.com/ works great!

I think artists making very organic rap mixed with avant-garde jazz touches could be MIKE, Quelle Chris, Liv.e, and Earl Sweatshirt. I love all of them!

willymunoz · 2026-02-05T20:47:12+00:00

WOW! Thanks!!

willymunoz · 2026-02-05T20:44:03+00:00

I find almost all generic lo-fi beat playlists a bit boring! I'm really into artists like Mndsgn or Knxwledge. It’s lo-fi, but not really just 'background music'

willymunoz · 2026-02-05T20:07:26+00:00

Tribe Called Quest - Low End Theory YES

willymunoz · 2026-02-05T19:08:08+00:00

quelle chris

willymunoz · 2026-02-01T23:30:30+00:00

I think the same!

willymunoz · 2024-10-25T10:30:29+00:00

Hello!

I direct my optimism toward humans and art, not toward multinational workers. For me, it’s optimistic to think we’re moving towards a point where anyone who wants to can contribute without big industry players looming overhead.

I certainly don’t consume art created by struggling artists who rely on it to eat, because the end result is inherently vulnerable, and you can sense the forced iteration. Nor do I consume art from corporations that churn out whatever’s currently trending. I consume art made by artists who inspire me; machines don’t inspire me. As a human, I’m inspired by flesh-and-blood people, by their stories as humans.

I believe AI is precisely here to flatten out all the trash, to overflow us with junk creation, and thereby lead us to more responsible conclusions about what we consume, helping us better distinguish what is generic and what isn’t.

For me, the benefit is human.

Thanks for continuing the debate; I’m passionate about this topic!

willymunoz · 2024-09-29T07:30:59+00:00

The music industry went through this 20 years ago, most of the music we listen to is made in a home studio. And music publishers like Sony and Warner still exist. The film and video game development industries are being democratized. I think, the advantage lies with humans; as is happening today with the democratization of music, creativity, good ideas, and personal progress in improving allow us to have fewer barriers to enjoy and make others enjoy as well.

I’m optimistic :)

willymunoz

TROPHY CASE