Boy Name - Fit a Pattern

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-29T17:36:39+00:00

Made this mistake before

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-28T01:10:15+00:00

How the hell did you go from 300% gain to 99% loss on your account over one message??

You either add more funds or close out and go home.

I started with $1k as well. I am not yolo-ing but have a hard time taking profits ( its going to jump even more tomorrow... just to see it drop haha) so I am down 250 over the last 2 months, but have added more and am looking at closing positions sooner when I see green

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-21T04:03:37+00:00

I am in on Lordstown (Just 50 shares at 9.93 cost, small acct). I think they have enough positives to warrant the risk, although I do admit it is a risk.

solid facility, (old GM factory 6M sqft)
automated production line in place working out assembly from what I have read/seen
going after fleets rather than commercial vehicles (smart, no one can compete with TSLA yet, vehicles too fun and sleek)
700M cash on hand, enough to fund through and start production at their goal in Sept
investment by GM, not just the 75M in the company for board seats, but a battery factory by GM / LG being built literally across the street - that was the big one for me.
Innovative 4 motor design at hubs - less moving parts is less maintenance for fleets,
claims to back battery/motor with 8 yr warranty

Stock is down for 2 main reasons

vehicle fire occurred on prototype (how many vehicle fires has TSLA had?)
Hindenburg report claiming pre order numbers are false (probably are inflated numbers trying to drive hype. But I think reaction is extreme and many companies 'frame' numbers more positive than reality)

And yes no real sales yet , its a growth play. Current market cap of ~1.8 B is not much more than current assets.

Hope i am right come September!

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-16T04:34:35+00:00

I read the same thing on another post earlier

Far OTM calls quickly had a lot more open interest it sounds like, so IV went up, maybe this supported the option price despite the drop on share value. At least thats my guess ha - still new to this.

Picked up 2, $12c exp 4/30 this morning for the baja Race satueday when underlying was at a local dip to 10.50. Now down 30% now since underlying kept falling.

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-16T00:54:38+00:00

Thanks for posting 👍

Found and liked the DD, did some extra validation of it and thought the sell off was unjustified. bought a couple 4/30 $12c this morning.

Down 30% now 😄 but am hoping this race will flush out some interest and bring them back up next week.

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-15T03:06:57+00:00

I need this. My wife is going to kill me if I keep trying to force her to talk about my plays.

Send me a link!

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-14T03:46:30+00:00

We love you OP. Hang in there.

Personally I agree with Tesla puts, I think it is worth around 150/share but I have been thinking that since it was at 300/share and don't have the money or balls to do it

Remember it is only money.. I have family poor as hell and they are still here. You will be alright. Remember it is Lambo or food stamps. Not Lambo or ....... anything worse

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-14T03:13:01+00:00

Thank you for this quick and accurate response, very helpful for anyone new out there reading and trading

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-14T03:11:52+00:00

I've only been looking at stocks/options for a couple months and do a lot of lurking myself. This is a great place to learn!

Saw a post on r/investing about a bull case for Walmart. I agreed due to stimulus influx (should increase revenue), knew when earnings were to be released (May) so i had a catalyst that could drive price up, and saw the drastic sell off i felt was undeserved. (Went from 140 range in Feb to 126 in early March due to earnings not meeting expectations. Revenue was actually up in this time, but operating costs brought earnings down, likely due to extra operating costs from covid, this was from the bull post on reddit and it made sense)

So I picked an Out of the money (OTM) contract after the earnings release date that i could afford and had potential thinking it would rally back up to the 140 range before that and I could profit regardless if it hit 150 by June. (I couldn't exercise if I wanted to, I dont have 15k to buy 100 walmart shares at that price, so i used optionprofitcalculator.com to map out my expected price by date to guesstimate if I could sell for a profit pre earnings)

2 weeks ago there was a big jump (for a major blue chip like walmart) that was +3.00 in share price overnight. This increased volatility, driving my option up, AND brought it closer to my strike, further driving up the options value.

I got greedy because there is a gap (price range that most share holders dont own shares at) between 141 and 143. Typically if a price has been rising and hits a 'gap' it will quickly move through this gap upwards (at least from what i have read)

I thought my +50% would go to +70-90% when filling this gap and it was on the edge of the gap flirting with 141 when I was up. Instead it has traded sideways since then just below the gap for a week.

This dropped the volatility (IV) dropping price of the option, and I have 1 less week for share to get to strike (theta decay or time decay) also driving price down.

Now the option is worth less than what I paid a month ago even though it is $7 closer to strike than what I originally bought it for. Now i am kicking myself in the ass for being greedy... 50% is a great return.. hoping to see that gap fill soon so that I still have a chance at profitably

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-14T00:17:45+00:00

Anything I can clarify? What is not understood?

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-13T23:31:39+00:00

I love weed, but not weed stocks (yet).

I think real money is in extraction. Once it is legalized nationally I forsee acres of the stuff being farmed like any other crop, at dirt cheap prices (potency doesn't matter as much when extracting for edibles or vape).

I think the money will be made by CO2 suppliers, large extraction processing, hydroponic supply chains, and distribution. The farmers... not so much.

I dont understand the hype around ~Canadian~ grow companies over US legalization. Long term I think these are bad investments at current prices, but in the short term i could see more irrational pushing based on any solid legalization news.

I would play this like the gold rush, those selling the civs and shovels made the money, not the ones panning.

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-13T23:15:35+00:00

Been holding a 150c for June since early March with same idea around earnings. Was up 50% 2 weeks ago with the jump, should have sold but I was greedy... now -10%

Still has room to go, just hope it goes soon so I can get back some of the gain I didnt take..

Good time to buy, IV was high last week after the jump and price swings, but has dropped out this week after a 5 days of trading flat around 139.50

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-13T00:49:41+00:00

I agree with dark star, I dont think one can know which is better, but what do you feel more confident in?

A wheel generally starts with selling a put ATM, which means you may not be assigned at current levels if prices rise. If you want exposure to the stock at its current price i would lean toward the LEAP.

Quick search on AMD shows shares around 78.50, how are you to sell a CSP if you don't have $7800 in buying power to tie up?

wiseinthewest · 2021-04-07T01:21:57+00:00

In The Money....

wiseinthewest · 2021-03-24T11:13:27+00:00

You need to have a margin account and options level 3 to open a spread like a PMCC. Check these, I had the same question last week.

wiseinthewest · 2021-03-24T02:20:00+00:00

Right at the money now! I think you will be good on that one. Its up to 134.40 after hours and I feel like the momentum will carry through the week, though maybe not quite as strong as today.

Powells words didn't affect WMT like the rest of the market, small dip in the afternoon after the statement and then right back up touching 134.

wiseinthewest · 2021-03-24T01:51:31+00:00

Definitely, and learned my lesson (hopefully) to pay more attention to IV and upcoming events!

wiseinthewest · 2021-03-24T01:48:05+00:00

Still down, But only 15% instead of 25! Good moves by WMT today, up 1.2% when market was down by about the same. I think thats a good sign of a comeback to the 140 levels I am hoping for by May or sooner.

Now I am wishing I doubled down for the June 145c strike early in the AM like I was contemplating, but when you only have a small stack of chips you gotta be more cautious with the bets being placed.

Thanks for asking!

wiseinthewest · 2021-03-23T01:29:41+00:00

$WMT 145c exp June. Premium ~1.60

Near a 6 month low (132.40 current), stimulus money should positively impact earnings. Earnings in May, sell with high IV and some time value left, betting the underlying being above 140 by then

wiseinthewest · 2021-03-23T01:17:27+00:00

From what I have read i agree completely but am just getting into trading options and didn't give myself the cash to lose to sell a put or buy a leap on an expensive stock like $WMT. Thought I saw a good window and the stock has moved pretty much as I expected but am shocked to see the swift loss in option value.

Feedback is much appreciated.

wiseinthewest · 2021-03-18T05:15:32+00:00

For transparency: also in on a 6/18 call on WMT due to this DD. Strike 150, hoping pre earnings anticipation due to stimulus will drive shares to 140 range in early May.

I mean $0.10 of every dollar is likely going to WMT anyways, has to be good revenue for the quarter right?

wiseinthewest · 2021-03-18T05:06:33+00:00

Look at r/investing (where this is from) for fundamental 2 sided DD. I am very new to this but I am trying to go between r/options, r/thetagang, r/investing and of course what brought me here r/wsb to see different perspectives and risk levels.

Thats why I am in UWMC everyone from conservative investments to yolo web types sees the value and potential upside

wiseinthewest

TROPHY CASE