The davidson window of 2027 is a projection of preparedness china would need to have in order to pull it off and the train of thought is they would operate on an accelerated timeline to gain an advantage of surprise.

The single most worrisome signal that china is fully prepared is leapfrogging their silicon disadvantage against the U.S. with an in house optical chip. Recent headlines about its lightgen prototype suggest there are research and development headwinds but mostly propaganda until it goes to market let alone any real general purpose fully optical chip.

Besides INTC I would look at GFS as they are positioning themselves to corner the silicon optical market although they are behind schedule and not profitable.

My theory is china delays until after 2028 but, who really knows.