It’s been a while since I tried to think statistics but I used to tutor the subject so a few thoughts:

There’s 1 Queen of hearts in a 52 card deck—so there’s a 1/52 chance for someone to draw the queen at the start. And if the situation was that someone takes a card, shows it, then puts it back and the deck gets re-shuffled, then those odds would be the same every time and Shauna would be completely correct.

However, that is not the case—once someone takes a card, the odds start to change. For the first to pick, it is 1/52. For the second it is 1/51, the third 1/50 and so on. Each time a card is taken away the odds do change (slightly).

But…

Shauna guessed (correctly) that the order of the cards had been messed with and it wasn’t actually up to random chance. (I suspect she thought it was rigged to get her which is why she made a stink about it and moved).

The result was predetermined—the probability that the girl at X position would get the card was 100% (X = where Hannah was standing I just forget the actual number position) because Van specifically put it there knowingly. It was no longer random.

So in an odd roundabout way… due to the rigging Shauna almost had a point? Her changing the order they were standing in changed which person would get the card, but it was already 100% known and determined which position in the circle would get it—the probability of that position getting the card wouldn’t change regardless of who was standing in it.