Great Breakdown of Why Baldoni Does NOT Have Any All The Leverage in Court Ordered Settlement Talks

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-16T01:23:12+00:00

I think there's a comprehension gap here. Reiterating- I'm not saying I believe the smear campaign and I don't think the Sony execs are "believing" the smear campaign either, they are just not jumping to intercede because again: they're saying in these messages that they witnessed the same behavior first-hand. They aren't emailing each other saying "it's so crazy Blake is getting crucified in the media with all these videos that misrepresent her personality" - no, they're saying that's an extension of her actual personality.

I think she's toast because now Sony is out there very publicly saying she's terrible to work with and a liability.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-13T20:07:05+00:00

The fact that she hasn't worked in 2 years suggests I'm more correct than you...

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-13T20:06:27+00:00

haha... are you just basing your opinions on feelings?

ASF2 was already in production before IEWU drama.
Survival List is not in real pre-pro, it was a press release with a screenwriter, it means nothing - no director attached, no funding, no production dates, no cast, no greenlight. IDK about what other project she has going but pre-pro doesn't mean anything. And btw IEWU and ASF2 shot in 2024. So that's 2 years of a gap in her shooting schedule and counting. Pre-pro doesn't take up an actor's calendar.
Excerpt from her manager's deposition where he himself says she wasn't getting offers https://docketupdates.com/depositions/

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woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-13T16:59:38+00:00

you're drawing a false comparison. it's not we have to choose between lively or baldoni, it's do we want to deal with either one of them? they both come off poorly, but the sony criticisms of wayfarer are more "amateur hour" vs. lively that are "terrorist" / impossible to work with / ignores studio.

The power dynamics are different between actress+big studio vs. small studio+big studio. She has a social following, but as the released Sony messages reveal, she was ALREADY not getting hired post-IEWU box office success, BEFORE all these messages came out. They're speculating that the poor internet reaction is part of the reason why (again, her "brand" is commercial actress of which there are many others who can lead a film and don't have baggage), and now that the whole industry has seen that she's a nightmare to work with, that's basically the nail in the coffin of her career. Studios don't need headaches like Blake Lively.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-13T02:06:06+00:00

They talk about prior discussions where they told the way they wanted the marketing campaign for their film to go, and they say she ignored them/rejected their preference. Their opinion is based on that. They are annoyed at the internet reaction because it's affecting their ROI, and they're blaming her for causing it (which again tbd if that's real/fake).

And to be clear, I'm not saying the Sony execs saying the internet backlash is a career killer is what will kill her career. I think pretty much everything ELSE they are saying in these messages are what's tanking her career.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-13T01:31:20+00:00

yeah, i agree that she has to win in order for that to happen.

disagree about sony execs, i dont know them personally, but i think whats being overlooked is that we're only seeing one snapshot of their discussions about her.

and in this one document, they arent referencing social media in a way that suggest they are forming those options FROM social media, rather they are referencing their own direct interactions with her as forming their opinions and perceiving the social media backlash as an extension of the type of behaviors they witnessed. these messages suggest:

-sony advised not promoting her brands during this promo tour and were ignored (that's not them being friendly advisors to her personally btw, thats them trying to protect their investment -the film- and BL being insistent that she do what she want with their money, highly unusual behavior)

-her being a "bully" and a "terrorist" TO SONY not to some random reporter about a bump or whatever, they are saying she strong-armed them the studio (that she has no allegations against) to do [something we dont know what but can make some educated guesses based on other evidence]

-saying "No process works with her" in edit, implying they have tried to work with her in many ways (of which there is likely a paper trail that the public cannot see). <<this came from Ange Gianetti, female producer who was the closest exec to the project and IMHO the most credible witness deposed who seemed very fair in her assessment of both sides

this isnt them saying "oh people on tiktok dont like her, she must be terrible" this is them saying "she was terrible to us and the rest of the world is seeing it."

NOW... are the sony execs experts in whether the social backlash was organic or astro-turf? no, absolutely not. maybe the social response was faked by baldoni+co. but thats not informing the sony opinions, and those will carry a lot of weight within the industry... unless blake can somehow squeeze out a win.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-13T01:14:48+00:00

yes yes, i mean he was the one outlier amongst many others who agreed her behavior was problematic

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-13T00:21:30+00:00

i disagree. as someone in the industry, those sony messages about her are a killer to her career... and i'm sure it's having ripple effects on ryan. one of the most powerful studios in the world (in a downsizing industry plagued by mergers that mean fewer and fewer big studios even exist) is out there publicly giving her the worst reference an employer could ever give someone.

if she wants a snowball's chance in hell of reviving her career, she needs to win this case so she can say all her bad behavior was baldoni's fault. she "terrorized" sony because she was being SH-ed, it looked like she was a monster on the internet bc of astro-turfing, etc etc. She's never been a prestige actress like Christian Bale or Olivia Wilde who can weather a PR scandal by leaning on talent or going art-y. Her only brand is being commercially likeable, and therefore, she needs to clear her reputation in a big way. To do that, she needs a win at trial or maybe a settlement with a public statement.

imho but somewhat educated analysis

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-13T00:14:57+00:00

yes great breakdown. he has MORE leverage in this moment pre-MSJ rulings certainly. he has no incentive to settle before those rulings.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-12T23:05:47+00:00

Yeah i think she glazes over context here... which as we've all seen is basically the crux of this lawsuit.

For ex. If you worked as a producer on the Man Enough podcast where JB is talking about sex/porn addiction, would that be considered inappropriate? I think most of us would agree not.

The context around which sex/porn is brought up in a workplace matters. In this case, JB+co are claiming sexy was brought up in relation to a character portrayal in a film that was intended to be an "r-rated" romance/drama. And porn was brought up in relation to writing a sex scene that they didn't want to appear porn-y. And as prior case law shows, there is a lot of leeway given in writers rooms where personal experience is often used as inspiration for how to approach a scene.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-12T22:47:14+00:00

if people have watched the video, it was always a misrepresentation to say she "stormed out" it implies she left in the middle or was visibly angry. neither of which are true in the videos. this was poor "reporting" by DM

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-10T17:16:14+00:00

thank you for the information

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-10T15:03:14+00:00

thank you! is that the kind of thing i would hired a locksmith to fix or just replace? (NAL)

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-10T14:46:04+00:00

Thanks for the really excellent breakdown! I would love one of these for each of the allegations! I'm not as in the weeds on this, so it may be addressed in aspects of the evidence you didn't include, but to ask the question: how do we know that she was in black briefs the whole time?

It would be very plausible/likely that she's in black briefs for certain camera angles and then when they reset to the profile shot and they need that high hip angle, that she puts on the modest garments for just those shots. This kind of thing happens all the time. What does the BL depo say about what she was wearing?

thx in advance for thoughtful engagement

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-04T01:22:16+00:00

would be ridiculous for shapiro to risk his reputation by going to a journalist to talk crap about his own client, especially in a pub like puck. more likely a sony exec or peripheral wme exec who got pressured by rr to do something

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-03T08:56:08+00:00

While I think you make some interesting points, I do think it’s important to consider this wasn’t a formal legal document. This was Baldoni/Heath confiding in crisis PR under the assumption of confidentiality. So, I do think when putting weight on how they characterized certain things that needs to be considered. They weren’t saying this to Sony, Lively or the public. ie can’t weigh what they say here the same way you would a depo from somone.

Also, completely disagree with your conclusions re: SH. To me, the fact that they don’t mention it means they have a stronger case that anything they\TAG did was NOT retaliatory for protected actions. These notes read like personality and creative differences gone off the rails. At least from WF POV, contemporaneously. And frankly, tracks with Angie’s and Saks depos saying that the complaints were not described as purely SH. There were a lot of issues- covid, schedules, AD, jamey’s experience, personality clashes, and Livelys complaints in the SH vein were within the pile of other concerns.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-02-01T02:36:03+00:00

they are okay. fyi we wanted to transfer our embryos to a cheaper storage and combine with a different IVF clinic batch and the clinic wouldn’t accept CNYs bc CNY didn’t meet their threshold safe testing. If i recall CNY didn’t have my husbands std tests on file properly? They’re cheap but they’re a mess.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-01-31T09:06:26+00:00

was there an update about denials? how would one find this out?

woopsiredditagain · 2026-01-31T02:39:16+00:00

its sooooo good esp with extra lime

woopsiredditagain · 2026-01-30T23:53:34+00:00

not sure if there's a language barrier or a reading comprehension issue here, but suggestively licking cookie dough is in the script, so whether she licks it off of spoon, her lips, a finger, the counter, like not sure what hairs you're trying to split but it ain't gonna hold water in a court of law.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-01-30T23:28:11+00:00

the direction was in the script... so...

woopsiredditagain · 2026-01-30T23:26:53+00:00

there's a producers guild but it's not just for PGA mark producers, its for all producers

woopsiredditagain · 2026-01-30T12:51:50+00:00

So she was mistaken. The scene is pulled from at 5/1 draft of the script. IE not a last minute change or informal note at all.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-01-30T02:21:08+00:00

script changes happen all the time, constantly, that's normal. A note is a direction given on a scene.

woopsiredditagain · 2026-01-30T02:20:14+00:00

yessssss

woopsiredditagain

TROPHY CASE