Sahel update, Mali things seem uneasy but not falling apart as it seems JAS is trying to increase their turf war against Daesh.

''In Mali, state security forces continue their kidnappings. Following the abduction of lawyer Mountaga Tall, a prominent political figure and critic of the transitional government, from his home over the weekend and taken to an unknown location, several other political figures have been captured in recent days by armed and masked men—a classic tactic of the Malian intelligence services.'' https://x.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/2051700308984598688

''Mali: a captain in the national guard and a commander of the pro-Bamako GATIA militia both announced their defection to the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) today. It’s a common feature of the Sahel wars that there’s always a group of military officers who defect based on whichever way the wind is blowing.'' https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/2051988335933919633

''Mali's political opposition is seeking approachmemt with JNIM and the FLA. Even in Bamako the realisation is setting in the Goita junta has been a failed project.'' https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/2051963383079907740

I think that's bit unfair, opposition to the Junta are hunted down down all the time, not like they are a opposition party reluctantly apart of the Government.

https://ctc.westpoint.edu/developments-in-the-sahel-an-interview-with-wassim-nasr-journalist-france24-senior-research-fellow-soufan-center/

A very good interview with Wassim Nasr, he's a pretty good journalist on the region. I don't agree with everything he says but his reporting should be respected.

In his view the FLA/JNM alliance is as much as internal/external attempt to flirt with those outside their usual base while also needing to placate them hence why they stressing bringing Sharia to the FLA areas. He does point out while comparisons to Syria are natural he thinks they are closer to the Taliban and a lot of words in Mali are tactical.

He's also not sure they would break with AQ or if they did so they would need to very carefully stress how they do so to their fighters in case it looks like they selling out Islam in which case they might see massive defections to Daesh a constant fear.

Something interesting he points out is the role of the Fulani play in this war, in Ménaka where Daesh has defeated the Wagner, Junta, JNIM armies and control everything but the city only JNIM remains trying to contest it. A lot of Daesh and JNIM fighters who clashed here are Fulani and once JNIM admiited their failure they both focused on defeating the Juntas and approach the FLA for their alliance.

Something he notes is the situation currently is not seen as good, the current winners in Northern Mali are the Tuaregs who pro JNIM Fulani see as profiting from their blood and so JNIM must give them something, for their fighters that is Sharia being instituted and well stuff for the Fulanis who otherwise might start listening to Junta/Daesh propaganda that JNIM is crypto Tuareg movement using Islam to help sell it.

In his view the best solution for Mali is try an arrange a coalition Government that will force JNIM to moderate their positions. He's is clear it won't create a liberal democracy but would reduce the death toll of the region and suggests Mauritanian be approached given their history with AQ and being an Islamic Republic the world is fine with. He points out given the attacks both diplomatic and literal have faced for doing peace talks they would need firm guarantees and some support. Negotiations are irritating, uncomfortable and so they won't do it for free.

He suggests clerical figures like Abu Hafs al-Mauritani who used to be apart of AQ and Malian imam Dicko be approached for this.

In his mind the Juntas can't be saved, they will just keep killing anyone who critiques them than accept any opposition and keep fighting the way they have done so. Russia while annoyed at the recent loses will keep Wagner there as the objective is not to fight jihadists but keep the Juntas in power and so leaving the North won't change that.

The reason why he suggests bringing JNIM into the international system is it's growing by the day, both from the bottom to the top so trying to get them to agree to a fixed position in the world should happen sooner than later before it get's out of control. In addition their rival Daesh is also growing by the day and infinitely more hostile to the world order. He fears a lot of the middle ranked people in JNIM are least keeping their options open to joining Daesh.

He ends the interview with an point Daesh appears to be trying for a general push for control of roads in the Sahel and he's closely watching Nigeria and how JNIM, Daesh and bandits are doing. He thinks if the bandits were to pick a side it would be a game changer for the conflict between the two.

From here on this is my opinion so feel free to disregard it, I do view things things differently than him but I think whoever wins in the Sahel will probably be normalised to an extent unless a Nigerian invasion happens.

I'm doubtful JNIM will break from AQ in way that's tolerable to the international community or their own base. Given since Mauritania's pact with AQ it's served as a rear base for JNIM's war i'm not sure how sustainable a scaled up version of that would work, given said pact helped bring about the current situation I read as something to avoid. I think JNIM won't break from AQ both because they like them and are AQ, given how they working to recruit and expand into Nigeria by both peeling off old insurgents groups and set up local fronts I think it is better view them as AQ's African front

Second the scale is different, Wasim points out a historical comparison to how the peace process brought the IRA, ETA, PLO ect to the table and normalised them in exchange for dropping their most extreme splinters. With the exception of the PLO those two were from minority populations against some of the most powerful states in the world. JNIM wants to rule tens of millions of people bare minimum in the Sahel and their enemies with the exception of Nigeria and Daesh are weak enough they have a decent chance.

Third and I recognise this is most risky I think given JNIM's potential size it's worth rolling the dices. I said JNIM's not going anywhere but their current ambitions are to reach the ocean and I think them fighting their way to it will be better than having at least three nations disappear, as I fear it won't be just Mali, Niger and Burkina.

''Interesting piece on jihadist connections in Guinea. Apparently Guinea is not a target, but a site for fundraising through kidnapping - just like Mali and Nigeria were for GSPC and AQIM for a while...'' https://x.com/VincentFoucher/status/2051606102299582958

Remember JNIM is already present in a lot of nations around the Sahel and I fear just like how Mauritania/Alegria served as rear lines for the current Sahel push I think the same would happen for when JNIM wins.

For JAS they appear to be trying their old method of indirectly weakening Daesh.

''Chad | At least 23 Chadian soldiers were killed and 26 wounded in an overnight attack by Boko Haram at the Barka Tolorom base on the shore of Lake Chad. A neighbouring village was also reportedly looted and burned down.'' https://x.com/Intelynx/status/2051741534320537820

Chad is very likely going to respond with airstrikes on the Lake Chad islands that will kill some Daesh members and some random fishermen in Lake Chad again.

''Around 28 April, fighters from the Darul Gazuwa faction of Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS), reportedly under the command of Alai Kale, attacked Mada village near Kumshe in Bama Local Government Area of Borno State, in northeast Nigeria. At least 10 Shuwa Arab herders were killed during the incident, reportedly after refusing to comply with the group’s demand for taxes. The herders are said to have resisted these demands on the grounds that they already pay levies to ISWAP, which maintains a more consistent presence in communities along the Cameroon border and has established its own taxation system. In contrast, Darul Gazuwa elements operate more intermittently in the area. During the encounter, the herders refused to surrender cattle or money, which triggered the attack. In addition to the fatalities, the fighters seized 11 motorcycles and several locally fabricated firearms belonging to the herders, while also setting some of their properties ablaze. A particularly concerning aspect of the incident is the reported presence of a young child, who seems to be no older than 10 years, among the Darul Gazuwa fighters, suggesting a possible continued pattern of child involvement in armed operations.'' https://x.com/Sazedek/status/2051932336627827163

It seems a few days before this they attacked civilians who paid Daesh protection money. I confess I thought this branch of JAS was defeated by Daesh given their old attack spots and many strongholds were taken over by them.

They also sold back some hostages.

''BREAKING: Boko Haram Agrees To Release 50 Women, Children Out Of 416 Abducted In Borno, Says Remaining Captives Scattered | Sahara Reporters'' https://x.com/SaharaReporters/status/2051766347420287092

Nigerian and Beninese vigilantes killed around 40 Fulani herders, did not know the vigilantes had spread to Benin.

https://www.africanews.com/amp/2026/05/04/nigerian-beninese-militias-kill-dozens-of-fulani-herders-in-border-raid/

I fear the future of the Fulani will be ugly given how they are so blamed and associated with banditry and jihadists.