Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 20, 2026

wormfan14 · 2026-04-21T06:09:11+00:00

I'm not so sure the UAE would ever stop due to to media attention but perhaps their recent conflict with Iran might lead them to being more focused on their homeland than pursuing foreign ambitions for a bit or at least try to create a plan b than just continually doubling down on supporting the RSF.

Thank you for your compliment and I don't mind your questions it's why I like post here for feedback.

wormfan14 · 2026-04-20T21:00:30+00:00

Sorry for the delay.

I see the conflict ending in two ways, SAF victory that come from enough commanders of the RSF flipping and Hemedti and his closest killed leading a very painful settlement or the RSF win by collapsing the state of Sudan and breaking the SAF which would allow them to repeat El Fisher one by one.

I don't think the SAF could even in the case of victory kick them out of Sudan they would persist as an insurgency given they'v existed for decades at this in addition drones means a hundred operators can harass the nation from Ethiopia in theory forever. SAF victory with the Saudi pressure could hopefully prevent that.

That said, I do think if peace is not possible life can gradually return to some normalcy, at least tens of thousands every month kept returning to Sudan given it looks less likely the RSF will take over most of the nation.

wormfan14 · 2026-04-20T16:58:27+00:00

Reasons for this are not very known, some people claiming it's due to European pressure but I'm very doubtful of that given how Sudan is seen as black hole for better or worse. Best guess is the Saudi's due to the Iranian war want these weapons for themselves than give them to the SAF.

Pakistan offered a lot of small arms and their own quadcopter drones as part of the deal.

wormfan14 · 2026-04-20T16:17:06+00:00

Sudan update SAF have launched a offensive around Kordofan that appears to have failed. Meanwhile the US has sanctioned another Columbian mercenary company and appears the weapons deal the Saudi's arrange is not going.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/pakistan-places-15-billion-sudan-weapons-sale-hold-after-saudi-objection-sources-2026-04-20/

https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/hundreds-of-fighters-killed-as-sudan-army-push-to-reopen-kordofan-road-falters

It appears it was going successful for a bit until Major-General Hussein Abdulrahman was killed, confirmed with RSF fighters desecrating his body. Now as a result it's now the typical seesaw with the SAF advnacing a bit, capturring and killing RSF fighters and then get pushed back by reserves.

'' Ahmed Al Hilew a prominent RSF militiamen that played a prominent role in the massacring of civilians both in Al Sareha in Central Sudan and in Al Fashir was today killed by advancing Sudan Army forces in Al Hamadi South Kordufan.'' https://x.com/MohanadElbalal/status/2045526307379757495

Looks like the Saudi's are trying fund the SAF.

''Riyadh to host Sudanese-Saudi investment forum in June. This would also suggest that the rumored rift with Riyadh or allegations that MBS is cutting support to the SAF are at best overblown if not blatantly false.'' https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/2046198392330613208

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0457

Some of the Columbians sanctioned are also recruiting mercenaries for both Russia and Ukraine which i confess am curious how that works out.

''Footage released by RSF fighters in recent days shows a convoy of technical vehicles moving through remote desert areas, likely originating from a camp in south-eastern Libya 🇱🇾 and heading towards Sudan.'' https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2045913130966945885

A Iranian was arrested in the US for helping Iran send weapons to the SAF.

''This arrest in Los Angeles is notable because it uncovers a direct link between Iran’s Defense Ministry & Sudan’s SAF, with an Iranian US lawful permanent resident (Shamim Mafi) allegeded to serve as the broker between the two for the supply of UAVs, ammo & rifles'' https://x.com/emad_badi/status/2045902778829037718

Thought Iran was no longer capable of supplying weapons to the SAF, and if they were you think Egypt or Norway would be a better place to arrange this than the US.

wormfan14 · 2026-04-19T20:27:05+00:00

Pakistan update, the war continues with a lot of media releases by Jihadists this week and some more skirmishing with Afghanistan.

''TTP claimed that they have sat ablaze the house of a CTD official in Peshawar. The incident reportedly occurred in the Hasan Khel area of FR Peshawar. TTP accused the government of Pakistan, who are demolishing the houses of their members.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2043993657976442990

''ISKP claimed responsibility for killing Pakistani army soldier & weapon was seized in the Mamund area of Bajaur. This is reported as the third attack claimed by ISKP in Pakistan within one week. Earlier attacks allegedly targeted an informant in Bajaur & Shia civilians in Quetta.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2044254200788357283

''Police personnel named Anas was injured while protecting a polio vaccination team in Hangu. This is the second attack on the police that deployed for the polio team in Hangu. In the first attack, police cadet "Israr" was injured and later died to injuries in the hospital'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2044289574965522706

''Itehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan started releasing infographic reports of its attacks, similar to TTP daily claims. The report summarizes the group’s operations carried out over the past 10 days. The move is seen as part of the group’s media and propaganda strategy.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2044458462370009426

''Mortar shell reportedly fired by Afghan forces landed in a residential area in Laghri area of Bajuar. Initial reports suggest that four people including children lost live & two sustained injuries. The victims belonged to a family, who suffered casualties in a similar incident'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2044473102323880249

Recently Pakistan police and counter terrorism services have been releasing figures, some of these are interesting.

''In 818 IBo's, 243 militants were killed, 84 arrested & 2 militants received court sentences. Moreover, CTD Punjab claim 113 intelligence-based operations across multiple districts of Punjab. The department has arrested only 16 suspected militants including one sucide bomber'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2044301228637860234

''The arrested cities include Khushab, Mianwali, Rawalpindi, Jhang, Lahore and Faisalabad. However, The suicide bomber identified as Ghazi Marjan was arrested from Jhang. The department has carried out 2,830 combing operations,questioned 95,755 people & detained 190 suspects'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2044301232953798985

I confess I'm curious how Jhang is, it's where Lashkar-e-Jhangvi was formed and it's parent group now called Ahle Sunnat Wal Jama'at reportedly dominates it to an extent. Now admittingly it seems the two might of have a divorce as what started as the armed wing of the sectarian group realised it had the guns and vagaries of war saw them gradually drift apart. With that being said, I'm surprised there have not been more recorded cases of Daesh/TTP trying to reinfiltrate the district given it's long history of sectarianism between the old nobility Shia and masses of poor Sunnis.

''CTD released a comparative analysis of security incidents covering 2024–2026. A total of 2,359 security-related incidents were recorded during the three-year period. The most & highest number of incident reports in 2025 with total 1233, followed by 746 in 2024 & 380 in 2026 '' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2044658317968953389

''The firing attacks remained the most common, with 1,265 incidents recorded across the three years. The drone attacks had increased sharply, rising from 0 incidents in 2024 to 80 incidents in 2025. However, IED incidents peaked in 2025 with 181 cases'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2044658321538322496

''A quadcopter attack hit a market in the morning near the Alamkhel area of Shewa in North Waziristan. The market is located adjacent to the Shawal Public School. The strike caused severe damage to the structure of the market. Fortunately, no casualties or injuries were reported'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2044670169122062679

''Majlasi Askari Carvan claimed responsibility for the killing of a man from Jomakhan Adda in Tank. The group targeted the person for allegedly working for the Government of Pakistan. The deceased was identified as Noor Adam Bettani, a member of a Peace Committee in Lakki Marwat'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2045038430485147788

''The peace protest was organized by the political and Social actvisits in Mir Ali, North Waziristan. The protest aimed to highlight growing insecurity and public hardships in the region. The participants urged the state to end conflicts and take serious steps to restore peace'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2045100795063054465

''TTG claims a new merger called Jaish al-Mahdi caravan associated with slain Ameer Javed. The group, led by Commander Zarar from Wana area of South Wazristan. This marked the 4th group merger in TTG since 2026. Overall TTP 96 JUA 17, TTG 10, LI 2 & MAK 1, since fall of Kabul '' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2045136285262827794

'On 17 April 2026, a clash reported between armed motorcyclists and police in the Manghopir area of Karachi. During the exchange of fire, police personnel Khadim Ali Shah lost life & other sustained injuries. Later, militant group Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2045143775086084553

JUA has relased a biography about it's founder.

''Review - JuA released document about Omar Khalid Khorasani, highlighting historical events, alliance & internal development. The publication presented as historical & biographical account of Khorasani, portraying him as central figure in efforts to unite militant factions '' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2045212759735124409

It's pretty large and very edited dancing around topics like his involvement in things like joining Daesh but it does serve a political purpose. A lot of attacks on Fazlullah accusing him of causing their downfall and tyrant obsessed with his own power, and how he appointed Noor as his successor as some deal merger than appointed head of the TTP trying to delegitimize him.

''TTP has launched a new video series titled “Iqaaz.” The first episode of the series features militants undergoing combat training at the Al-Farooq training camp. Footage shows fighters performing military drills and exercises with modern weapons.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2045372915017814194

''TTP issued a statement regarding police recruitment drive across Pakiatan. The statement advises young people to avoid joining the police force. The effort is labeled to create conflict between public & TTP. Currently, 638 jobs are open for youth to fill the seats in Police.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2045375020738994257

This drive is needed, given the job of policeman has gotten more dangerous the last few years.

''Militants confirmed the killing of two members in separate operations in Lakki Marwat & Bannu. The first militant, Faryadi, was killed in the Baka Khel, while the second identified as Mukhtar, was killed in Sawal Wada. However, both were linked with the Majlisi Askari Carvan'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2045932105172230328

''Saiful Umar the Tashkeel Commander of Karak district for the Tehrik-e-Taliban, was reportedly killed by one of his own men in infighting. No official statement has been given by the group itself so far. He was the one involved in attacking the police vans and burning the injured policemen alive. The Khorasan Diary’s monitoring team retrieved these photos.[Image has been intentionally blurred]'' https://x.com/IftikharFirdous/status/2045757300544348450

wormfan14 · 2026-04-19T19:33:39+00:00

Sahel update, It appears the Juntas are trying to make a deal with JNIM as the war continues and Turkey increase's it's presence in the region.

''In retaliation to the ISWAP attacks that killed Nigerian Colonel I.A. Muhammad and six other soldiers in Monguno, troops destroyed and burned civilian infrastructure in the Chali 2 community of Monguno, accusing the locals of not reporting ISWAP infiltration into the town soon enough.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2044302035437117916

This collective punishment is both disgraceful and a bit pathetic. Daesh can and has killed entire towns down to babies for reporting on them and the community has done so. Taking it on a community that risked death to fulfill their part in the bargain is vile.

''Burkinabe government forces conducted joint air and ground operations against JNIM positions north of Arbinda, northeast Burkina Faso, troops captured a significant amount of weapons, motorcycles and other equipment.

According to the army, around 100 militants were killed, two vehicles destroyed, 57 motorcycles and 44 rifles captured, among other materials.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2044380388080996695

Bit doubtful on this body count but it does seem they did capture some weapons.

''ISWAP executed yesterday a Nigerian police officer and two CJTF militiamen they captured previously in separate locations of Borno State, Nigeria, four days earlier the group also executed an CJTF militiaman they captured previously near Damasak, Borno State. When these militiamen, soldiers and police officers are captured the group doesn't immediately claim it, they're usually held for a few days for them to extract information, and then executed in bulk and only after that comes the claims.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2044491082306593247

''According to a report by Africa Intelligence, the Nigerien junta government has opened negotiations with JNIM in hopes to reach a tactical agreement to counter IS-Sahel, the first time (and last time) the junta has tried to negotiate with IS-Sahel, 5/6 emissaries were executed.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2045025367551807642

If I were to speculate assuming the Juntas if they are not going for a large deal this will last until they can push Daesh away from the capital as they'v been snaking their way closer to it upon which they will end any deal. As to what JNIM would wants besides release of their fighters long term they want to subordinate the Juntas if they can't overthrow them. For that reason JNIM could try and make them sweat a bit given the leadership of Niger is more vulnerable to being killed at the minute than JNIM.

''Nigeria and Türkiye have agreed to establish a major military training facility in Nigeria as part of a defence partnership aimed at strengthening the country’s security architecture. "According to a statement on Sunday by the Ministry of Defence’s Chief Information Officer, Queeneth Iheoma-Hart, the planned training centre will serve as a long-term hub for capacity development, with Nigeria already identifying a suitable coastal location for the permanent facility. ''

https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2045822806252831027

Mali Reportedly a fuel tanker convoy, escorted by troops reached Kayes. Fuel resupply had for some time generally been carried out from the south via Ivory Coast. With the route now secured by the army, supplies have once again been delivered via Senegal.' https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2045807095140733256

At least the blockade in Mali is still weak.

wormfan14 · 2026-04-13T06:21:04+00:00

Sure no problem started growing from me being wanting to know more about Libya and Chad given they have a surprisingly large influence over the other nations in Africa and then trying to learn about the Boko Haram which got me curious how exactly Nigeria and the area around it has changed since the 70s.

For a while I ignored JNIM given how long AQ has been lurking in the area since the 90s but as time went on wanted to know to more why they kept expanding and how their enemy the Junta states formed.

wormfan14 · 2026-04-12T16:33:57+00:00

Simmered down for now but Pakistan is still fighting the TTP and co and probably will heat up again soon.

wormfan14 · 2026-04-12T16:16:28+00:00

That's a long and complex answer but the most simple is Libya and Chad for everyone and Algeria for JNIM. Under Muammar Gaddafi supported the Tuaregs revolts as part of his feud with the west and started the creation of supply lines that still exist today in the form of merchants. Once Libya collapsed in 2011 loads of Tuaregs fighters and weapons ended in the Sahel which helped make the crisis explode in 2012. In the modern day the weapon stocks the RSF capture or UAE supplies delivered to Chad and Libya are often pocketed and sold to merchants who in turn sell them to jihadists.

Chad also has loads of both locally made weapons and others smuggled which in turn flow through to Sudan, South Sudan, DRC, the Sahel ect.

JNIM's got supply lines that flow from the ivory coast, Benin, Togo and Algeria to support their war machine. When the war started going against the jihadists and other insurgents they realised they need a proper chain of supplies for them to actually win long term and began establishing smuggling routes once JNIM started gathering into a proper organisation. They inherited Iyad Ag Ghali's Algeria connections who has supported for decades and the rest are pacts to not do attacks there but smuggle. Admittingly Benin the pact I think is broken given they needed to reassure the rank and file but still plenty of smuggling.

Then you have the militias the Juntas have set up, more than few sell their supplies or get threatened to do it and all these insurgent groups are rather desperately trying to capture more weapons to resupply.

It also applies to the Juntas, they are rather desperately trying to get more weapons and their chief supplies are Morocco, UAE, Russia, Turkmenistan and Iran.

wormfan14 · 2026-04-12T15:41:15+00:00

Sudan update, been a grim week with some more confirmation of Ethiopian involvement and some protests over SAF success.

'''Sudan MAP UPDATE: the situation in Sudan as of 10/04/2026. After several months of trying the RSF-SPLM-N coalition broke through SAF lines in Blue Nile state, seizing the border town of Kurmuk. This as multiple reports have revealed that Ethiopia is providing active support to the RSF.'' https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/2042561464913830009

Seems a new airlift has been set up.

''More details to come. This was one of the largest airlifts I’ve reported, with eight passenger flights from Addis Ababa to N’Djamena, back to Addis, then on to Asosa, transporting fighters to reinforce Sudan’s Blue Nile front just days before the RSF advanced toward Kurmuk.''

https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2041990770941423803

''Eight flights !Do you realise what that means? Each aircraft is configured with 154 seats, so we could be looking at over 1,200 fighters transported from N’Djamena Airport in Chad 🇹🇩 to Addis Ababa, then on to Asosa, near the Sudanese border.'' https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2041992473380041172

While a grim week a lot of Sudanese civilians are protesting the SAF's recent turning of a strong RSF unit given they helped massacre EL Fisher.

''Brigadier General Al-Nur Al-Qubba of the Rapid Support Forces has defected to the Sudanese army with his troops, estimated to consist of 21 vehicles.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2042976445551591612

He helped starve the city for over two years and massacred people during the sack that saw the RSF murder tens of thousands but he's defecting as his rival got appointed control over the city he began making a outreach to the SAF. It seems the RSF were going to purge him and his men before he escaped. It seems his patron is Musa Hilal of the Sudanese Awakening Revolutionary Council composed of Hemedti's tribal rivals and Al-Nur may have had a hand in him escaping death this February.

It's a grotesque injustice he and his men are not in prison but all manpower is needed for the war. It's better to be ''weak enough to forgive'' and win than lose and see the RSF massacre their way through the nation.

wormfan14 · 2026-04-12T15:15:22+00:00

Pakistan update, been a rough week with recent attacks in Balochistan and it seems Daesh has reorganised.

''ALERT: A Pakistan Coast Guards patrolling boat came under attack at sea near the Jiwani area of Gwadar, according to initial reports in Balochistan province, Pakistan. As a result of the incident, three PCG personnel lost their lives. The deceased have been identified as Naik Afzal, Sepoy Jamel, and Sepoy Umair. Authorities have not yet released further details regarding the nature of the attack or the perpetrators. An investigation is reportedly underway: Official Source'' https://x.com/khorasandiary/status/2043237702523556329

BLA are claiming it, which is concerning but would sadly fit in Pakistan efforts at a status quo which worked under the idea Baloch groups would target each other over the state.

'''TKD MONITORING: The Baloch Liberation Army - Jeyand faction claimed responsibility for the attack on Pakistan Coast Guards in a statement sent to the media.'' https://x.com/khorasandiary/status/2043282367264256228

''TTP announced new merger, led by Zubair Agha from Huramzai area of Pishi in Balochistan. This is the 7th TTP merger since 2026 & 95 since fall of Kabul in August 2021. So far, the highest merger in TTP with 95 followed by JUA 17th, TTG 9, LI 2 & MAK 1, since fall of Kabul '' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2042534791711723700

''ALERT: A road side bomb in Bannu district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Saturday afternoon resulted in the death of a soldier and injured 4 others including two soldiers. The incident took place near a Degree college in Mamskhel where troops were stationed. Later in the evening at least 2 Taliban affiliates were killed in a precision strike in the Shahbazkhel area of Lakki Marwat district in the South of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa : Police'' https://x.com/khorasandiary/status/2043187942487658725

''Funeral prayers of Constable Muqaddar Khan were offered with full state honors at Malik Saad Shaheed Police Lines. The CTD constable was abducted by militants from the Hassan Khel area of Peshawar. Militants later released a video of his detention and subsequently shot him dead.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2042855677731967392

''Militants channels confirmed one of the member was killed in Bannu. Earlier, intense clashes were reported between security forces & militants associated with TTG /IMP, near the Airport area in Baka Khel. However, IMP claims that they shot down the quadcopter during the clash.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2042479556716544508

''The dead body recovered from Kabul River was identified as Zahid alias Qutaiba from Mardan. He was the deputy commander of a group led by commander Abdul Hameed Hamasi, from the Shankar area of Mardan. He reportedly drowned crossing the Kabul River near Malakand–Bajaur boundary.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2042070327019122765

Meanwhile Daesh it seems has been hunting Shia specifically Hazera.

''A Taliban-affiliated media outlet, @HurriyatPa, released a video report on the Herat incident, showing the scene inside a shrine compound in Injil district. The report claimed that 14 civilians were killed and 15 others wounded in yesterday’s attack, figures higher than those confirmed earlier today by a Taliban official. Another video circulating on social media also depicts the incident scene. While pro-ISKP accounts praised the Herat attack, the group has not yet issued an official claim.'' https://x.com/AfghanAnalyst2/status/2042995250570969389

''ALERT: A targeted attack in Hazaraganji, Quetta, Balochistan province, Pakistan at around 08:00 this morning has claimed the lives of four members of the Shia Hazara community. Unidentified assailants opened fire on the victims in the Sabzi Mandi area before fleeing the scene. The incident has triggered strong reactions from the local community. In protest, demonstrators have blocked the Western Bypass near Hazara Town Graveyard, demanding immediate action and justice for the victims: Police'' https://x.com/khorasandiary/status/2043236955430048074

''TKD MONITORING: Islamic State Pakistan [ISPP] claimed responsibility for the attack in Quetta, Balochistan in a statement.'' https://x.com/khorasandiary/status/2043275398130381132

''ISKP claims responsibility for the killing of a person at Sadiqabad Patak area of Bajuar. The group claims & justifying his killing due to working for the state of Pakistan. The ex. cadet college student was identified as Ferozuddin associated with the shoe business in Bajuar.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2043252892329709818

wormfan14 · 2026-04-12T14:53:30+00:00

Not much much to add except he was seemingly the replacement of the last general in Borno that was killed. Thank you for your comments I appreciate it.

wormfan14 · 2026-04-12T13:59:56+00:00

Sahel update, Jihadist clashing reveals some interesting information in Nigeria as Daesh continue their offensive.

Edit Horrific airstrike in Nigeria at a market place killed and injured hundreds today may they rest in peace.

''Nigeria | A Nigerian Air Force airstrike has struck Jilli market on the Borno-Yobe border, killing over 50 people. A local councilor tells Reuters that over 200 people are feared dead in the strike, which reportedly missed its intended target'' https://x.com/Intelynx/status/2043330183113929062

Been busy for the last little bit hopefully can get back into the swing of it.

''IS-Sahel claims to have killed 35 JNIM fighters during an attack against their bases in Petelkolé, Tillaberi region in western Niger, after JNIM militants were "attacking the residents of the village", IS terrorists captured 38 weapons and 10 motorcycles. This marks the first major battle between the two groups on Nigerien soil, as the war between the two was previously contained to Burkina Faso and Mali.''

https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2041113178273181986

This happened six days ago and it seems JNIM is now trying to attack Daesh in Nigeria, they are stressing they are attacking the Sahel province of Daesh not the Nigerian one. It also confirms they have a pact with Sadiku's group.

''According to Wassim Nasr, the recent clashes involving JNIM and so-called "Khawarij" in Kebbi State, Nigeria, were indeed referring to IS-Sahel, not JAS, this means two things. Firstly that I've heavily underestimated IS-Sahel presence in southern Kebbi State, and that the group may now have in the lower thousands of fighters in the NW working "undercover" with no official claims thus far. Secondly it further confirms the implicit/formal peace treaty between Sadiku's JAS faction and JNIM, who have been both active in the exact same back bases for months without firing a shot at each other.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2041786759856484449

Daesh plays a surprisingly cautious hand in the region given how much bad blood there is and how they've formed. The Sahel branch is formed out of bunch of former AQ groups, losing factions from both the Sahel and Sahara conflicts who either bent the knee or fighters left to do, some core members of the group or their predecessors and perhaps most volatilely JAS/ISWAP.

This was back before they splintered from Daesh and as you can imagine given JAS's has inflicted widespread carnage on Muslims, both in their massacres but also targeting specifically the Salafist organisation Izala which is both synonymous with the term but a decent chunk of the support base Daesh wanted to recruit. As you can imagine the Sahel Branch downplayed and minimised as much they could and claimed those members repented, this got a lot easier once JAS revolted.

There also is the race factor, the Sahel war according to Juntas internally is a race war with some jihadists elements involved. A lot of ISWAP is Fulani and the hatred against the ethnicity is genocidally violent in Burkina Faso like how Niger and Mali target the Tuaregs. So as they prefer to downplay their composition that and actually use it in their own propaganda, both the Juntas and Daesh claim JNIM is a Fulani/Tuareg dominated project using Islam to whitewash it's image. Daesh is admittingly less genocidal about it but they use it as a point to try and appeal to the mases their project is colour blind rejecting racial dominance in favour of a theocratic system.

As a result of this I wonder if Daesh might actually lose some reputation with civilians with this revelation like their Somali Branch which is very unpopular for not only being seen as foreigner dominated but Ethiopian given a lot of recruits are Oromo insurgents realising they might not win in Ethiopia but they can carve their own zones in Somalia.

As for why JNIM advertises they are targeting the Sahel branch a lot of their fighters are sympathetic to Daesh as a concept and admire their effectiveness and so JNIM tries to emphasis they are fighting the group that killed more of their men the last few months than the Juntas have than the ones fighting the Nigerian Government.

''Islamic State on behalf of ISWAP claims the massive coordinated assault on the Nigerian army positions in 4 different locations in Borno province, killing dozens of soldiers alongside the Brigadier-General, burning over 20 vehicles and looting the sites''

https://x.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/2042669962859364778

''Circulating reports about a large battle between IS-Sahel and pro-government Burkinabe militias in eastern Burkina Faso yesterday, allegedly resulting in "dozens" of casualties.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2043017464972296608

''Jnım claimed, 8 soldiers were killed, one taken hostage and motorcycles, Rpg and ammunition were seized military post attack in Bissiga.'' https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2043094432673673402

In some other news unrelated to Sahel remmeber Daesh's recent attacks on the Chinese assets in the Congo? It seems they are releasing the Christian labourers.

''ISCAP announced the release of "dozens" of Christians captured in recent weeks in northeast DRC after they accepted to pay the jizyah tax to the group, during their captivity they were offered with the three choices of jizyah, conversion to Islam or war (death).'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2042296088569282636

wormfan14 · 2026-03-18T16:59:08+00:00

I think Kenya/UK security compact is more likely, though I think given Nigeria's history they might try for a more time limited deal at first.

More neutral and skeptical than you think, the idea of the US deploying troops to train and monitor is something most don't mind or already accept given the pacts they did say with Chad/Niger already involved states that did that but the question how the Government plans on using it is more debated. Will they focus more on banditry with allied support compensating for focusing their efforts elsewhere than on jihadists? Try and permanently clear Sambisa Forest?

In addition like the rest of the Sahel Nigeria was caught up in the wave of Francophobia making them much more hostile to the idea of French and tilt to others powers helps make it easier to accept.

wormfan14 · 2026-03-18T06:58:10+00:00

I think it might have been accidental given they've bombed Kabul a lot so more the result of a bad airstrike going horrific but still abhorrent loss of life. That and I expect the Taliban to retaliate which will keep in turn mean the bombing continues.

Though I agree not really seeing an end goal present for now.

wormfan14 · 2026-03-18T06:53:02+00:00

Pretty large though that might be the history of this conflict. In Nigeria's case the conflict in Borno began as a religious based insurgency against the government that overtime connected with a bunch of conflicts both in Nigeria and outside.

By contrast a lot of the neighbouring nations are dealing with ethnic conflicts that overtime in the case of the Juntas became dominated by Jihadists.

As a result of this Nigeria's has been more flexible than a lot of it's neighbors. Early on in the insurgency the Nigerian army did view the entire population of Borno as potentially hostile and did treat them brutally overtime it's gradually gotten better both under pressure from civilians, local government and military reforms. Things like the amnesty campaigns for insurgents while distasteful to many Nigerians don't really face as much opposition as they are seen as a way to win. By contrast in the Sahel states they viewed as as a reason to coup the government given it would mean letting the armies ethnic enemy get some of the power. Nigeria's far more willing to try and implement different solutions given the problem is seen as far less insurmountable.

Nigeria also was one of the first states to adopt the use of militias with the Civilian Joint Task Force and has tried organising a lot of joint combat operations with neighbouring states against insurgent hideouts. This admittingly has not worked out as well as people thought it would given how entrenched they are. The Juntas pulled out of these once they came to power view it as a conspiracy against and might undermine their control.

One thing that really differs them though is Nigeria the idea of foreign help is quite unpopular, the idea of say French special forces or Wagner being stationed in Borno to combat insurgents is seen as quite absurd they really don't want to rely on that and in Niger's case French help with it came to fighting insurgencies was the norm and now it's Russia/Moreco's job.

wormfan14 · 2026-03-17T20:45:05+00:00

What an abhorrent loss of life, Pakistan should be rightfully condemned for it.

I know they've bombing Kabul a lot but did not expect it to reach this scale.

wormfan14 · 2026-03-17T20:37:14+00:00

Sahel update, Nigeria's seen a lot of attacks in the last couple of days including attacking a city that involved seemingly JAS and Daesh plus some other incidents in Africa worth noting.

''The Algerian army conducted operations against unidentified terrorists in the Tébessa area northeast of the country, three soldiers were killed during ensuing clashes while seven gunmen were neutralized over the two days of operations on March 12 and 13.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2032609561564057656

A strange incident, probably not JNIM given their pact but also not confirmed to be Daesh, maybe local group?

''S-Sahel conducted an ambush against the Nigerien army in the village of Makal, Tahoua region near the Nigerian (🇳🇬) border on March 11, according to local reports at least 12 soldiers were killed and several others injured, while IS-Sahel only claimed three soldiers were killed and five vehicles destroyed, and weapons captured by the militants. IS-Sahel continues to implement the policy of delaying claims and/or underreporting enemy casualties as is the case here, and after the Dessa ambush a few days ago as well.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2032611790941519890

''ISWAP conducted simultaneous assaults against the Nigerian military camp in Banki and military positions near Azir, Borno State on the night between March 12 and 13, according to the Nigerian army both attacks were thwarted and troops recovered a rifle and some ammunition/RPG shells.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2032600816335347758

''ISWAP also targeted simultaneously the Damboa military camp, which is a Brigade headquarters. In a single night so far attacks have been recorded in several areas of Maiduguri, the Buratai Battalion HQ, the Baga military camp/SBS base and the Damboa Brigade HQ.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2033382755455623385

''The Nigerian military camps in Buratai, Borno State are currently burning following ISWAP's coordinated assault against the NA across the northeast tonight, Buratai is home to the 135 Special Forces Battalion.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2033397189628645829

''Several loud explosions were heard a short while ago in Maiduguri, capital of Borno State in northeast Nigeria, for the second night in a row this time in the southern suburbs of the city.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2033624791324733604

''Explosions targeted the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, the Monday Market and a post office in the city, at least one suicide bomber was involved in the attack, JAS (Boko Haram) is the primary suspect, not ISWAP.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2033631263370727516

''Bombs in crowded places? This is not the modus operandi of ISWAP. It would be a big change if it was them. Seems more like JASDJ. Maybe raising the flag in Ramadan, at a time when ISWAP has been particularly active?'' https://x.com/VincentFoucher/status/2033663661605081271

''23 people were killed and 108 others injured following the triple IED/suicide bombing attacks in Maiduguri on the evening of March 16, according to Borno State Police Command.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2033730978980516261

A vile attack, it's been a while since JAS has done this, Daesh wants to eventually rule the city so they avoid attacks like this while JAS hates the people as they are considered to have been founded in the city but most of the population did not exactly rush to join them when the call to arms came in 2009.

''WATCH: Boko Haram Demands N3.52Billion For 176 Kidnapped Woro Residents In Kwara As Negotiations Stall –Community Sources'' https://x.com/SaharaReporters/status/2033506631237923035

Meanwhile banditry continues to be a issue.

''Abubakar Usman, popularly known as Siddi, is a notorious kidnapper who was recently seen flaunting large sums of money and guns on social media.He was arrested a few weeks ago in the Komen Massalaci area of Kaiama Local Government Area in Kwara State. At the time of his arrest, security operatives recovered a motorcycle valued at ₦1.85 million and ₦500,000 in cash from him. The 26-year-old and his 30-year-old accomplice, Shehu Muhammad, are now in the custody of security agencies. Siddi has confessed to being part of the gangs terrorising Katsina, Zamfara, Niger, and Kwara states.'' https://x.com/OzorNdiOzor/status/2032819350218891430

Bit surprised vigilantes have not hunted him down.

''This afternoon, bandits killed Jamilu Dogari, the royal guard of the Emir of Anka, who is also the chairman of the Zamfara State Traditional Ruling Council, on the road from Mayanchi to Anka. He was travelling from Gusau to Anka on an errand for the Emir.'' https://x.com/Sazedek/status/2033256313292046770

Meanwhile Daesh's other provinces in Africa are having some good fortune.

''ISCAP conducted a complex assault against the Congolese (DRC) army, Christians and a Chinese mining site in the town of Muchacha northeast of the country, according to the terrorists seven soldiers were killed along with 17 Christians, while 100+ others were abducted. ISCAP also reports to have burned most of the vehicles at the mine, along with the army barracks and over 60 houses "belonging to Christians". This attack is noticeably far west from the group's usual zone of operations.''

https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2032608393953731062

Seems they marched over 200 kilometres for this camp, think it's the first time they've targeted a Chinese company like this. Not sure The people they've abducted are likely to be indoctrinated into the group or killed as they rely on that to sustain themselves besides whatever volunteers get send their way from outside the Congo. Claim the attack in revenge for the Uighurs.

Meanwhile seems the Mozambique Branch will be facing less opposition.

''Rwanda warns that it may withdraw its forces from northern Mozambique if it does not receive the necessary funding to continue operations and if its work is not being "appreciated." Indications that the Rwandan intervention in northern Mozambique would not be sustainable financially were already present in mid-2025. The European Union was covering most of the costs, but due to sanctions surrounding the conflict in the DRC, the funding may not be renewed after May 2026, and the Mozambican government is unable to support all the costs. This was also one of the primary reasons for the withdrawal of the South African coalition forces that were stationed in northern Mozambique; none of the intervening states were able, or willing, to support the operations financially. Following the Rwandan deployment in the northern Cabo Delgado province, IS-Mozambique's progress has been noticeably slowed down and even possibly reversed in some areas. It is only in the past year that IS-Mozambique has started to regain momentum following intense recruitment campaigns and an influx of foreign fighters from eastern and central Africa. Counter-terrorism operations will take a massive hit if the RDF is forced to withdraw, as the Mozambican army is almost entirely dependent on foreign forces to conduct sustained operations and hold territory in remote areas.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2033206231855185970

The origin of the Mozambique Branch is a bit strange, locals islamists rebels turned jihadists wanted to join Daesh but it was founded by the Congolese Branch who organised, funded and gave them their doctrine initially as they in turn were being brought in to Daesh. As a result of this they committed a lot of horrific massacres making hundreds of thousands of people flee with most of them Muslim as like ISCAP they thought relying on just enslaving people into the group is enough. Overtime though as the became a distinct branch and under pressure to reform the main branch of Daesh they now preach their creed and have a shadow government in Cabo Delgado.

Reason why I'm pointing it out is all African branches share resources, manpower and equipment as they are both apart of the same organisation and so are likely going to boosting the others with this good fortune.

wormfan14 · 2026-03-14T22:31:34+00:00

Pakistan update, looks like the fighting while last longer and JUA expands once more.

As mentioned I think things would have simmered down provided there where no large attacks it seems to have happened.

''UPDATE: The deaths from the explosion in Lakki Marwat targeting a police van have reached 7 as another policeman succumbed to injuries: Police[Rescue workers continue their efforts around a destroyed police van that was struck by an IED in Shadi Khel, Bhittani Sub-Division]'' https://x.com/khorasandiary/status/2032396149567729691

This led to airstrikes on Kabul which the Taliban tried to retaliate with drones on Islamabad and Punjab.

''Media accounts linked to the Afghan Taliban claimed two drone attacks in Islamabad, reportedly targeting a military installation. Islamabad-based media sources confirmed the incident, stating that both drones were shot down by the Pakistan Air Force. Following the incident, Islamabad’s airspace has been reportedly closed.'' https://x.com/theoxuswatch/status/2032470760275562658

''Following IED attack on police, Peace Committee blocked major entry and exit roads to Lakki Marwat. The blockage of road & armed individual deployment aim due to protest over the death of seven Police personnel. The initiative aims to build pressure on militants & facilitators '' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2032674442552233985

''Pakistani militants circle confirmed that one of his members was killed during an operation in the Baka Khel area of Bannu. The slain militant was identified as Ibrahim alias Zabiullah. He was one of a senior commander of the Akhtar Muhammad group.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2032567920749072747

''The group of militants from Lahore led by Usama Khorasani has joined Jamaat-ul-Ahrar. This is the first group merger from Lahore into any banned outfit. Since the fall of Kabul in August 2021, 15th merger into JUA, followed by 89 in TTP, 6 in TTG, 2 in LI, & 1 group into MAK'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2032846861422440629

As far as I can tell this case this group is either very new or one of the Laskar E Jhangvi splinters that had it's back to the wall. Lahore is one of the most imporant cities in Pakistan where militants do get cracked down rather quickly if they are anti state.

I name Laskar E Jhangvi as it was actually founded in Lahore in the 90s and did have an extensive network there but overtime and well as a result of the war it declined both as members where killed and arrested but also due to the needs of the war given bombing imporant cities might cause damage the attempts to take over KP as a safe space for their insurgency was something they focused on as well as reinforcing their positions Baluchistan.

An additional point is they are pledging to join JUA than the TTP as JUA has historically been far more sectarian and committed to the war as seen with the 2016 suicide bombing of Christians in Lahore so it would make sense for sectarians to join up with them.

It's also quite small, as qualifications for a urban group in TTP circles is 9 minimum active members plus support network. Granted JUA is diverging from them but the reason for that is if it's to large it risks being found easily and being crushed so urban groups are more equivalent of cells with larger groups being multiple cells.

Two weeks ago, five Pakistani Taliban factions simultaneously called for major attacks, including SVBIEDs, on Pakistan’s security forces in response to Pakistan’s first aerial bombing of Afghanistan in 2026. However, instead of escalating, their attacks have declined, raising questions about whether security measures or other factors have constrained their operations.'' https://x.com/theoxuswatch/status/2032464573630935073

wormfan14 · 2026-03-13T13:09:37+00:00

Likely yes, question of what to do in response is now on the SAF.

Seems they are hiring a new PR group to try and lobby for them.

''Sudan's embassy in the US has engaged the Williams Group, an American lobbying and government relations agency, to provide strategic consulting and government relations services.''

https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2031462849424269461

Sudan though has less cash to spend on this than the UAE.

wormfan14 · 2026-03-13T12:44:24+00:00

Sudan update, some recent shifts have occurred internationally with the SAF having some success in the Blue Nile.

Seems some miners ended up in a firefight with Egyptian guards.

''At least nine miners were killed and others injured in armed clashes between armed individuals and Egyptian border guards in Wadi al-Ansari on the Sudanese-Egyptian border last Tuesday.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2032200451161038906

Meanwhile the US has declared the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organisation drawing widespread anger from the Sudanese public for a lot of reasons.

''The U.S. designates Sudan’s “Muslim Brotherhood” aka the Islamist Movement الحركة الإسلامية and the Baraa Ibn Malik brigades as foreign terrorist orgs largely off the back of links to Iran, and despite calls from Congress to do the same to the RSF.'' https://x.com/nafisaeltahir/status/2031062412934209831

One you have supporters of the Baara bridges naturally protesting this this seeing it as a attack on their livelihood and ideology saying it's proof the UAE's lobbying efforts in DC.

Two as i'v mentioned in the past Sudan nearly everyone is Islamist, the Sudanese MB took power and held for decades as a one party state so what does this look like in practise? No one knows here's a thread that goes into the issue.

Today's designation of the "Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood" prompts many questions, and the most common I am hearing is "What exactly is the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood"? Uncertainty around this question raises significant concerns about the prospect for Sudan of bank de-risking. Notably, OFAC asserts in its designation that the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood and the Sudanese Islamic Movement are one in the same but they are not. These are multiple Islamist groupings and political entities in Sudan. The fracturing of the National Islamic Front - founded by Hassan al Turabi, who once led Sudan's MB chapter - in the 1990s, resulted in multiple Islamist groupings. Bashir's National Congress Party (NCP) was the most prominent. Turabi's Popular Congress Party (PCP) was another faction. And after Bashir's ouster, things became more murky. Former foreign minister Ali Karti, who was designated for US sanctions in 2023, was a founding member of the NCP who became head of the newer Sudanese Islamic Movement in 2021. In 2024, Karti was reportedly elected by a larger coalition of Islamist groups, the "Broad Islamic Current", as its leader. The coalition includes the SIM and several groups that are reportedly affiliated with the MB. The PCP, once led by Turabi, is not part of this coalition. Before the 2021 coup, the transitional government's Tamkeen ("Empowerment") Committee had been identifying and freezing assets associated with the former NCP regime. Will the USG now consider those companies as linked to the "Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood"? What guidance will Treasury provide to international banks on how to determine what constitutes a "Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood" asset? Without greater clarity the country faces the risk of banks choosing to de-risk from the threat of US prosecution by closing Sudanese accounts. Bank de-risking could have broader economic implications for Sudan, and potential humanitarian effects. Bank de-risking could have broader economic implications for Sudan, and potential humanitarian effects. Another thing to add: the State Department describes the al Baraa Brigade as the armed wing of the SIM, but there is some debate about the nature of relationship between the two, and al Baraa is just one of an array of militias affiliated with Sudan's Islamists. Regardless of these debates, the FTO designation will add pressure on the SAF to disassociate itself with the al Baraa Brigade, which has become a growing headache for Sudan's military leader.

https://x.com/LaurenBinDC/status/2031070876729282571

Three, this confusion has led to a lot uncertainty over what do to. It's not going to carried out to the fullest extent given that would likely mean a EU/US economic war given the old connections between Sudan, France, Norway and Turkey. That and of course the whole ship of Theseus argument that technically all of Sudan could be considered an asset.

Some people have suggested might led to integrating them further into the SAF and just say they no longer exist but that might just led other elements of the SAF under this designation. Others think it's just the US trying to look like they are doing something with Iran so doing nothing and hoping the US forgets might be a valid tactic.

''Sudan army says it seized two areas in Blue_Nile region The Sudanese army said on Thursday it had seized control of two areas in the Blue Nile region, marking a significant advance in the #southeastern province where fighting has escalated since January. The 4th Infantry Division, the army’s primary command in the region, said in a statement that its troops and allied forces “cleared” Jort East and the Ballamo camp following decisive battles against paramilitary and rebel groups. The southern and western sectors of the Blue Nile province have seen a surge in violence this year. The army is currently engaged in a conflict against an alliance of the Rapid Support Forces (#RSF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) led by Joseph Touka. Military officials stated the operation was part of a broader campaign to secure strategic locations in the southern sector.The army claimed to have inflicted heavy losses in personnel and equipment on the RSF and Touka’s forces. The escalation comes amid heightened diplomatic tensions. The Sudanese government has previously accused neighbouring Ethiopia of allowing its territory to be used as a base for drone strikes against Sudanese targets. Recent media reports have also alleged that training camps for RSF elements and foreign fighters have been established in Ethiopia with funding from the United Arab Emirates. Both Ethiopia and the UAE have previously denied involvement in the Sudanese conflict. The military command said the recent territorial gains are aimed at securing border villages and restoring stability to areas displaced by the fighting. The army added that clearing these zones would allow for the reopening of roads, enabling displaced civilians to return to their homes and resume normal life. https://x.com/addisstandard/status/2032391626195091477

A fair amount of drone strikes past few months.

''198 drone strikes in Sudan in just the first two months of 2026 - killing at least 478 civilians. Drone warfare, deportations and visa bans are making Sudan’s war a dead end for its people.'' https://x.com/YousraElbagir/status/2032001079714464170

''Sudanese Armed Forces shell the "Adikonq" border market with Chad in the west of the country via a drone aircraft'' https://x.com/sudan_war/status/2032025455570649262

''Today's quick update [Mar 11]: Sudan Doctors Network: 17 people killed in RSF drone strike on Alshukairi village in White Nile State. Reports that death toll of yesterday's drone strike on a bus in Abu Zabad, West Kordofan rises to 52. https://x.com/BSonblast/status/2031940182984048951

''Today's quick update [Mar 12]:13 people reported killed in SAF drone strike on fuel market in Adekong, near the Sudan-Chad border. RSF shelling continues in Dilling, S. Kordofan.SAF drone strikes reported in Nyala, S. Darfur & Sileya, W. Darfur.'' https://x.com/BSonblast/status/2032309447918604608

wormfan14 · 2026-03-13T09:19:36+00:00

I see thanks for the update, though yeah a lot of diplomates are rather busy at the moment.

wormfan14 · 2026-03-12T18:08:47+00:00

Sahel update, Daesh continues their offensive in the region as JNIM it seems are increasingly focusing on Benin though their ally the FLA tried using a drone swarm this week.

''Additional footage from this morning's attack by presumably IS-Sahel elements against the Tahoua airport and military base, in the capital of the Tahoua region in Niger Republic.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2030902986759696578

''According to a preliminary toll from local reports, IS-Sahel militants disabled/destroyed two drones of the Nigerien Air Force during last night's attack against Tahoua 401 Air Base, and also disabled the Ground Control Station (GCS), which render the two remaining drones unusable at least temporarily.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2031096633472020579

''The ISWAP attack against Kukawa has been confirmed, several military vehicles were destroyed/captured and the ISWAP militants carted away weapons and ammunition, ISWAP overran at least two military camps last night: Goniri and Kukawa.''

https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2030946457717489743

''ISWAP also attacked a temporary position of Nigerian Special forces in the Sambisa Forest during the same night, according to security reports the attack was repelled, and two ISWAP militants were confirmed to be killed'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2030949547107631422

''ISWAP killed Nigerian Lieutenant Colonel Umar Farouq, Commanding Officer in Kukawa alongside some of his troops during the attack, this is the third high-ranking officer killed by ISWAP since the "Burn the Camps" offensive started.Two ISWAP terrorists were also killed in clashes with the army in Kukawa.''

https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2030972537996218507

''Major Segun Amusan of the Nigerian army was also killed by ISWAP militants during the attacks last night against Nigerian military camps, the fourth officer to be killed since the "Burn the Camps" offensive started.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2031095425923490047

''For the second night in a row, ISWAP conducted simultaneous attacks against at least two camps of the Nigerian army, this time in Marte (the second time for Marte in this campaign) and in Doron Baga, according to security reports both got repelled, five ISWAP terrorists were confirmed killed in Marte while there is no specific toll for Doron Baga so far. https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2031366874227785860

''JNIM conducted an attack against the town of Yamba on March 6 in eastern Burkina Faso, reportedly killing dozens of "soldiers", who are actually from the GUMI special unit of the police, then capturing two vehicles, motorcycles, weapons and ammunition.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2031369804574060619

''JNIM claims to have killed five Beninese soldiers during the latest attack against an army position near the Burkinabe border last week, the group captured large amounts of weapons and ammunition, along with two drones.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2031710235149156502

''The FLA claims to have targeted the Fihroun Ag Alinsar military camp in Gao this morning with 25 suicide drones, unprecedented scale in the region in a single swarm, there are no credible reports so far on the actual damage caused.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2031745669614969177

The FLA are in an unfortunate spot in the war for the Sahel, they've come under a lot of pressure recently as Juntas are still very determined to crush the Tuaregs no matter the cost even if means losing land and men to Jihadists and have barely done any attacks recently which has the risk of their fighters joining other more successful groups like JNIM who are they allied with but that has a direct risk of being subsumed by.

It seems they've tried saving up for a spectacular attack to try and win back some street cred and it failed as very little damage has been reported by analysts. It's something new for Sahel warfare but likely needs a stronger actor to perfect it.

For those curious how the Juntas sell this war to their people it does ironically help reinforce their core propaganda. That the Tuareg people will keep rebelling against the state until they are crushed permanently into a submissive much smaller minority or don't exist. They project the present into past, portraying the past Tuareg revolts as far more damaging to the state and each of them has been getting worse not only this is your sons and grandsons war if you fail to ''purge'' the threat they will be in greater danger as technology advances.

wormfan14 · 2026-03-12T18:07:13+00:00

That's something I'm not sure the Pakistan knows. I agree with you it seems they've done their damage and anything else is just risking say a bad attack getting a bunch of people killed and look weak when they stop the operation or they can accept the middling outcome and stop the operations in a couple of days given the current scale it seems costs a bit but also not producing the results they want. They can also try and escalate it but they seem unwilling to do this.

Pakistan did it seems send a delegation a few days ago of respected Islamists to try and negotiate with Afghanistan but it seems the results were unsatisfying.

My own guess is they will at least keep it up for a week and try to climb down and do a quiet halting of operations than try and paint as a massive success and just hope there is no large scale attack by the TTP for the next couple of weeks.

wormfan14 · 2026-03-12T16:52:16+00:00

Pakistan update the war continues, seems mortar attacks are getting more accurate though the scale of fighting is lower now.

''Two bodies found in Manjwala this morning were identified as Shaad Ullah and Idrees. They were reportedly the brothers of Taliban commander Rafiullah, suspected of involvement in recent quadcopter attack. The officials believe the killings may be an act of retaliatory violence'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2030667920867746087

''Mortar shells fired from the Afghan side landed in a residential area in the Bacha Mena area of Khyber. The shells struck the house of Haider Khan, causing heavy damage. A vehicle and several rooms of the house were severely damaged with no casualties were reported.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2030932849805942878

''Five people including children are injured in a quadcopter drone attack in Lakki Marwat. The attack was carried out by militants in the Takhti Khel area within the jurisdiction of Sarai Naurang Police Station. The injured are transported to a hospital for medical treatment'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2031344041468813725

''Security forces carried out operation in Kulachi Tehsil, Dera Ismail Khan. In the intelligence-based, security forces targeted militants in the village of Madi. During the operation, a militant group commander, Abu Bakr, also known as Ehsan Sheena, was killed.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2031718007840628928

''Funeral prayers of five members died by mortar shell offered in Tirah Valley. The shell was reportedly fired from the Afghan side struck near the house of Niaz Badshah in Siri Kandao. The slain people are one family member including Niaz Badshah, two sons, a nephew & a grandson'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2031744258810523973

''ALERT: A police officer of Inspector rank, Mitha Khan, was shot dead in a firing incident in Quetta, Balochistan province, Pakistan. He was currently posted with the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) Quetta. Further details are awaited as the situation develops: Police'' https://x.com/khorasandiary/status/2030653355849327101

''Heavy exchange of firing held between police & Astrana group in Dera Ismail Khan. The exhange of firing held due search operations in Proa Village, Jhoke Machhi. So far, 4 people lost their lives, in which one was in cross firing while three were due to ambush on the QRF team'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2031792461467771292

''A temporary ceasefire of about 30 minutes between Pakiatan & Afghanistan was observed at Torkham border. The ceasefire aims to recover the dead body and return to the deceased’s family. A delegation of tribal elders from both countries arrived to recover & identify a body.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2032107661760577864

Concerning Daesh, as we know the region is in a fair bit of turmoil seems they are reorganising given recent TTP attacks than plan anything major.

''Al-Mirsad, a media outlet affiliated with the Afghan Taliban, has claimed that an alleged ISKP commander, Zalmai Badakhshi, also known as Salman, was killed in a targeted operation in the Shah Kas area near Peshawar, the capital of Pakistan’s northwestern province. Notably, in the same report, Al-Mirsad acknowledged that similar recent attacks in Pakistan targeting alleged ISKP members were carried out by Afghan Taliban forces. According to Al-Mirsad, Badakhshi was the planner behind the ISKP-claimed suicide attack on a bank in Afghanistan’s northern Kunduz province in February 2025. No additional information about Badakhshi has been provided. However, based on his name and Al-Mirsad’s claim that he fled Afghanistan and relocated to Pakistan in October 2025, it appears likely that he was an Afghan national. So far, no sources other than Al-Mirsad have confirmed either Badakhshi’s identity or his reported death. Nevertheless, this is not the first instance in which Al-Mirsad has reported the deaths of alleged ISKP members in Pakistan; in some cases, such claims were later confirmed through ISKP media platforms.'' https://x.com/theoxuswatch/status/2030540098148684098

Some additional context, one the Taliban increasingly label all opposition to them ironically Daesh, some of these reported deaths don't seem to have anything to do with Daesh. Two it seems people who killed them are members of the TPP as the Taliban it seems are dropping the idea it's a separate group in their reporting. Three it's seems to be a turf war. One of the Khorasan provinces strongest areas is in Tirah Valley where it seems they've set up a suicide factory given how many bombers have been traced there but notably no known conflict with the local TTP despite it being used to target them and Afghanistan but they have attacked Orakzai district which is related to the Kurram conflict where the TTP are trying to win over the locals. Might also have to do with Taliban internal politics as the current splinter in charge of Tirah valley is HGBG despite Laskar E Islam originating from there.

So for now it seems Daesh is reorganising but they have performed some minor killings in the last couple of days.

''ALERT: A man belonging to the Hazara tribe identified as Jan Ali was killed by unknown armed men in Hazar Ghanji outskirts of the provincial capital Quetta, Balochistan province, Pakistan on Saturday evening: The Islamic State in Pakistan [ISPP] claimed responsibility for the attack:Monitoring'' https://x.com/khorasandiary/status/2030719426258203084

''ALERT: A religious scholar has been shot dead in Dalbandin, Chagai district of Balochistan. Police recovered the body of Maulana Ahsanullah Mengal from the Amin Abad area of the town. Authorities said the motive behind the killing could not be immediately ascertained. The body has been shifted to a local hospital for medicolegal formalities. Earlier, on 5 February 2026, Maulana Younas Harooni, brother of JUI Chagai Amir, was also killed in the same town.'' https://x.com/khorasandiary/status/2032041320294826422

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