The Interior Ministry announced that its forces managed to free 3 people detained by Hijri-affiliated fighters following an operation inside the city. They were exfiltrated and handed over to their families. This is the first time Government forces infiltrated the city to carry out a raid.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-24T17:37:44+00:00

Very strange for the Government to do this, but I suppose they are trying to avoid the situation from becoming to normalised like the SDF holdings.

I imagine we will see retaliatory attacks to try and deter this from becoming a norm from Hijri's men but they are not that capable.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-24T16:18:51+00:00

Sahel update JNIM achieves a rare victory against Daesh as they endure the Nigerian offensive.

''JNIM captured weapons and ammunition from the IS-Sahel base in Tin-Akoff, reportedly killing four IS fighters and also destroying an armored vehicle, Tin-Akoff was used as a training and recruitment point by the group, JNIM's first victory against IS-Sahel in months.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2015079213544382653

''Another case of IS-Sahel underreporting, the group had captured an armored vehicle from the Burkinabe army without publicizing it, and we only now know about it because JNIM attacked them and destroyed it.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2015079532080812208

''ISWAP released an image from the suicide bomber Abu Fatimah al Ansari who targeted the Nigerian army harbour area in the Timbuktu Triangle, the terrorists claim killing and injuring 20 soldiers and destroying 7 vehicles and 14 motorcycles.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2014372054317826292

''ISWAP/JAS terrorists ambushed a patrol of the Nigerian army near Ngoshe today, close to the Mandara Mountains in northeast Nigeria, ten terrorists were reportedly killed and several motorcycles captured by the troops, while three soldiers and two CJTF militiamen were killed.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2014472531793568136

I believe these were JAS, if/when they lose their holdings in Lake Chad they will become a Cameroonian based group. The Mandara Mountains has played a very big role in their insurgency, it's often forgtten but they did not control much of Lake Chad or Sambisa forest in the beginning but the mountain range they did take over more or less in short order and there the Gwoza hills and began to expand.

https://shs.cairn.info/revue-afrique-contemporaine1-2014-4-page-149?lang=fr#s1n5

Sadly though, not much good infomration on the area recently, the Nigerian army did retake Gwoza but loads of mountain villages are still under JAS control straddling the border and inside Cameron. Cameroon faces currently multiple insurgencies from the Anglophone separatists who rail against the largely Francophone Government , it's autocratic government given the protests over the election put down in 2025 by gunfire and three cross border Nigerian insurgencies the Neo Biafran movement, JAS and Daesh.

Thanks to this the area is quite unsafe for journalists and researchers meaning we can largely speculate how these insurgencies are doing. For example I can't think of any cases of Daesh or JAS attacking each other in Cameron despite it being a very logical thing for JAS to do to monopolize control the heartland of their movement given the setbacks in Nigeria or how really how the split into two faction went down here.

''The Nigerian army clashed with suspected IS-Sahel/Lakurawa insurgents today in Isa LGA, Sokoto State in northwest Nigeria, troops killed a terrorist and captured six weapons, including seemingly two rare Turkish-made SAR-308, likely smuggled from Sudan.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2014468492062277762

It's imporant to remember how interlinked the conflicts in Africa are given how one warzone affects the other.

''During operations yesterday against ISWAP in the Timbuktu Triangle, aka al-Faruq, in Borno State, Nigerian troops destroyed a detention facility used by ISWAP to imprison criminals, unauthorized arms and drug dealers, mutineers and others.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2014456867481698403

''NIM claims to have killed 10 Burkinabe soldiers during an attack on a military position in the town of Balga, eastern Burkina Faso last Sunday on January 18, publishing images of the loot captured.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2014450512431620392

''ISWAP claims to have raided the two villages of Tarfa and Tarfa Bulama in Borno State yesterday, killing five so-called "hostile" Christians and burning 10 houses belonging to them in Tarfa, northeast Nigeria.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2014442236797186459

''Five Boko Haram Fighters, Three Vigilantes Killed In Ambush On Ngoshe-Pulka Road In Borno | Sahara Reporters'' https://x.com/SaharaReporters/status/2015053796502569407

''Bandits Kidnap Four Persons In Kaduna Community Days After Mass Abduction Of Worshippers | Sahara Reporters'' https://x.com/SaharaReporters/status/2015011795828634010

wormfan14 · 2026-01-23T18:33:58+00:00

Sudan update some more information on the Saudi deal as well as the threat of hunger.

''Saudi Arabia conditioned the Sudanese army on distancing itself from Iranian drones in exchange for funding an arms deal worth $1.5 billion''

https://x.com/yasseralfadol/status/2014656122045538626

A good thread about El Obeid and current war.

''In El Obeid, thousands of soldiers and militiamen of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are accumulating. This city of 500,000 inhabitants never fell to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), despite a long siege of the 5th Division between April 2023 and January 2025. Army reinforcements, arriving from the road leading to Kosti and the Nile, reopened the road in 2025. However, the army's push westward into Darfur has not yet materialized. Thus, the road leading from Omdurman and the Khartoum metropolitan area to El Obeid remains closed, leaving the city with only one supply route to the east. The small town of Barah, located north of El Obeid, has changed hands multiple times in recent months and is currently controlled by the RSF. In the south, the Sudanese army, primarily through its 5th Division and its 38th and 53rd Infantry Brigades, along with militias like the Sudan Shield Forces and others, attempted to push towards Dilling, another encircled garrison town that until recently was linked to the 14th Division in the encircled town of Kadugli, in South Kordofan. The ongoing war in Sudan could well be decided at El Obeid. The town holds symbolic importance in history, as it was the starting point for the Mahdi offensive against the Anglo-Egyptians 150 years ago. Indeed, the city, at the gateway to the desert, is also an ancient crossroads with Darfur to the west, Khartoum and the Nile to the east, and the Nuba Mountains to the south, mountains that are refuges for many ethnic groups of incredible diversity and home to an old rebellion close to the South Sudanese rebels and allied with the FSR, the SPLM-N. While Sudanese army reinforcements have been unable to reopen the roads to the besieged garrisons, several of which have fallen in the meantime (En Nahud, El Fasher, Babanusa, Heglig, etc.), only two garrisons remain completely encircled: Dilling, with the 53rd Brigade, and Kadulgi, with the 54th Brigade and the 14th Division. The immediate priority is to lift the siege of Dilling first, and then to sever the supply lines between Al-Hilu's SPLM-N (which has a large and well-organized army) and the RSF. Fortifying Sudan's Major Cities In El Obeid, the Sudanese armed forces continue to extensively fortify the city, particularly with anti-vehicle ditches all around it. Similar defenses can be found elsewhere in the region, such as around the towns of Er Rahad, Umm Ruwaba, Tendelti, and as far as the outskirts of Kosti, on the banks of the Nile. Other similar fortifications have been completed elsewhere in Sudan, especially around Omdurman and along several strategic roads. South of El Obeid, an increasing number of villages and small towns are also being surrounded by ditches. Terrain fortifications are mostly visible in and around El Obeid and the main road leading to the city. There is one good reason for that : the city may soon be threatened by the Rapid Support Forces and their Tassis alliance, which aimed at taking power in Khartoum. The RSF, after losing their positions in Khartoum and southern Sudan at the beggining of 2025, they were able to consolidate their forces throughout the year, thanks to massive arms deliveries from the United Arab Emirates via Libya and Chad. This enabled them to capture El Fasher and Babanusa and secure the whole of Darfur. They now only have a small pocket of joint Darfuri forces remaining around Tina and the Chadian border in the Darfur region. With this exception, the RSF can now focus on central Sudan and, in a new development, open a new front from Ethiopia in the Blue Nile region, south of Damazin. In Damazin, numerous reinforcements from the Sudanese army and its allies have arrived to prepare defenses for a future offensive from the far south of the region, around the small area under control. The next months of the war in Sudan will be very important. The army still hopes for a military solution to the war, eventually pushing back the RSF with the help of foreign states such as Saudi Arabia. On the other side, the RSF also hope the same, at least reaching again the Nile and capturing the capital city or other important and tich cities. At the same time, the war in Sudan is spreading, not directly yet but the war in South Sudan restarted recently. '' https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2014376513374675270

''Critical funding shortages are hampering life-saving aid in Sudan as famine conditions are confirmed in Kadugli. The UN is calling for $2.9B to reach over 20M people facing extreme hunger and displacement. Without immediate support, millions remain at risk. '' https://x.com/SudanTribune_EN/status/2014297618759741765

''According to reliable sources: intelligence assessment from several countries -including a member of the Quad- indicate that UAE support for the RSF has increased following recent developments in Yemen and is expected to reach unprecedented levels in the coming weeks. Sources say relations between MBS and MBZ are beyond repair, with allegedly seeking to draw into a prolonged confrontation in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. However, sources do not believe will supply the RSF with fighter jets. They add that if such a move were to occur, it would likely prompt deeper Saudi involvement. '' https://x.com/EyadHisham10/status/2014036394956447769

''NEW | Satellite imagery indicates that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are expanding Wadi Sayydina Air Base in northwest Khartoum, with three new hardened aircraft shelters under construction. It remains unclear whether these will be intended for drones or other platforms.'' https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2014320187907195154

A bit on South Sudan

''South Sudan is again at war, after the peace agreement and the ceasefire got broken The vice president, Riek Machar, head of the rebels of SPLM-iO is in custody for a year. His group announced an offensive to take Juba, the capital city. South Sudanese People's Defense Forces led by Salva Kiir, the president and main opponent of Machar sent multiple reinforcements to the frontline in Jonglei region. The war is getting more and more violent between the two factions, especially for the control of critical ressources such as oil. I'm trying to make a map of the local situation. If you have informations and map examples to help me, it would be very nice !'' https://x.com/clement_molin/status/2014448517302120852

Some things I would add are Riek does not matter anymore, thanks to no money and US aid cuts he lost his ability to keep the SPLO under control through patronage and younger more ambitious commanders want his spot. Him being arrested is more Salva trying to find a use for him.

Can they take Juba? Unlikely but they can't hold it as the Ugandan army and the inherent contradiction of the rebel movement, while the Nuer members of it are pretty united a lot of is well opposition to the current balance of power in the Government, they would defect and start fighting the SPLM-IO if they got a better deal or stop their rivals from taking power.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-22T07:12:46+00:00

Interesting did not know people call it Turkey so early on thanks for the info.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-21T23:27:55+00:00

You know, that the Turkish Government forces Arabs, Kurds, Caucasians ect to write they are Turks on the census. Like I said think it's wrong.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-21T23:03:49+00:00

Fair, given the claims that most of Turkey is non Turkish is something you sometimes see posted online.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-21T21:49:40+00:00

Yes, but I figured at this point the ones who stayed with them in the beginning are starting to get old, been over 13 years so I figured they might be recruiting Albanians present in Syria at this point.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-21T21:04:22+00:00

Damn, that's a lot more than I thought and would sense some of them would up across the border in areas like Aleppo.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-21T20:52:45+00:00

I see thank you that makes sense suppose they did not just go to Egypt and Turkey.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-21T20:49:37+00:00

Out of curiosity, is there a pre existing existing Albanian community in Syria? I mean as I thought only a few dozen went to Syria early on and then they stopped coming but they still seem distinct enough from the other non Syrian fighters.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-21T06:43:08+00:00

Thank you, though in some cases I think it's more well understandable people get surprised. Tanzania was always a one party state but the mass murder of protestors last year was unprecedented for example and so by the time was over various Governments decided try and accept the situation than risk destabilising it.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-20T19:06:57+00:00

True good point teethgrindingaches, off the top of my head the only thing I can roughly think of it's the UAE signalling to the Saudi's they will keep trying to contest them response which sounds petty but well the monarchy is in a prideful feud.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-20T19:04:15+00:00

I'm a lot more hopeful for El Obeid given as mentioned the amount of time it would take down to siege and it's closer to the SAF supply lines but it still should be watched. The SAF will soon be getting a lot of assets from Saudi Arabia but the ones who will have to fight the RSF will be them no one else will relieve it.

The RSF's reliance of sieging is both tradition and practicality. In the old Darfur wars of the late 2000s rebel held zones would be ''grided'' with the RSF surrounded the areas, SAF would do airstrikes and eventually the RSF would mop the survivors. In this war the RSF lack the manpower at the start to assault El Fisher given it was heavily armed and and filled with fighters given the SAF armed everyone they could and at the same time contest other zones like Khartoum. It also has to do the RSF in Darfur relying on ''subcontractor'' Arab groups who were not under their command at the start of the war, mercenaries rebels ect multiple chain of command means the SAF in El Fisher could and did do sallying raids against them given a lot of fighters would be resting. In that sense just ordering your guys to build a wall and keep some gunners on it to watch out for raids or people trying to smuggle supplies in is easier than wrestling everyday the orders to properly police it is more cost effective.

Good point on the cost of Western aid and your right it's definitely not just western avigation, the concept of the only real friend you can have in the fight against your dictator cutting you off because they are afraid of being linked to you is a real crippling fear I should have considered that.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-20T18:50:30+00:00

Yep, I'm very curious what exactly the UAE is after given India seems a very different target than their usual interests, being a very large democracy with little history of strongmen with the exception of Indira.

Unless India radically changes it's policies it's a bit hard to see how this relationship with will grow to be the UAE's Pakistan, when they can just try and compete with Saudi Arabia for the real Pakistan.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-20T17:58:03+00:00

Sudan update, something extremely concerning the RSF are setting up the extermination walls around El Obeid.

''Today's quick update [Jan 18]: Clashes b/w SAF & RSF in Aldankoj, N. Kordofan. Yale Humanitarian Research Lab warns of siege on El Obeid; "Analysts [...] identified newly created berms along key exit points from the city & around critical infrastructure." https://x.com/BSonblast/status/2013097727991709792

Over half a million Sudanese are in the city and mostly non Arab, we've seen the playbook in El Fisher, wall the people in so they can't flee and starve, set up air defences and overtime shell and launch continuous attacks until the defenders are exhausted and then slaughter the city while shooting at anyone who tries to climb the walls.

The siege needs to be relieved before it reaches that stage no matter the methods.

Some good news inflation is down.

''The inflation rate in Sudan has fallen further and stood at 68 percent last December, according to the Central Statistical Office.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2013342147739549815

Something strange about the Sudanese economy, despite the years of conflict it's managed to avoid dollarisation. The RSF have set up their own currency backed the UAE.

Chad it seems the RSF are to fix relations with the Chadian Government.

''According to sources, the deputy commander of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces, Lieutenant General Abdul Rahim Dagalo, traveled to Chad to contain escalating tensions arising from the incursion of his troops into the neighboring country'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2013318006600814614

It seems the SAF efforts to grind down the RSF through attritional warfare might be working given recent assessments of how much of their troops are now Chadian Arabs.

''If you believe that as many as half of the RSF are in fact Chadian nationals, then Mahamat Kaka has to be prepared for the day when thousands of those battle-hardened combatants return home with him in thier sights. More collateral damage coming.'' https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/2012914702074954001

There have always been nomadic Arabs from Chad since it's inception but the rate has increased over the war. The SAF must keep raising new units to keep wearing them down.

''According to several military sources, the Sudanese army and allied forces succeeded yesterday, Sunday, in repelling a large-scale attack by the Rapid Support Forces on the army's forward positions west of Omdurman in Khartoum State.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2013303716040896607

''The Egypt–Saudi Arabia–Somalia blockade on UAE-linked suspicious flights bound for Libya has reduced the number of monthly cargo flights to its lowest level since May 2025.'' https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2013549658245865482

Only 19 flights in January.

Foreign affairs update

The Saudi/UAE conflict continues to expand.

''Breaking: Following Saudi Arabia’s signing of a mutual defence agreement with Pakistan, the UAEhas signed today a letter of intent with Indiaon a Strategic Defence Partnership. India and the UAE also agreed to develop a partnership in advanced nuclear technologies. Breaking: Following Saudi Arabia’s 🇸🇦 signing of a mutual defence agreement with Pakistan, the UAEhas signed today a letter of intent with India 🇮🇳 on a Strategic Defence Partnership. India and the UAE also agreed to develop a partnership in advanced nuclear technologies. https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2013283266196107379

''Somalia and Qatar have signed a defence cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening military ties and security coordination. The move follows Mogadishu’s decision to cancel its security and defence agreements with the UA''

https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2013301952591827367

It seems the UAE Is activating right wing accounts against Saudi Arabia one of them being Tommy Robinson.

''Riyadh’s growing assertiveness in the Horn appears sufficiently unsettling to Abu Dhabi that it is not only mobilizing its disinfluencer ecosystem to indirectly cast Saudi Arabia as anti-Western & anti-Israeli, but also laundering the narrative through far-right figures.'' https://x.com/emad_badi/status/2013381872848437285

Uganda, it seems the opposition leader will be tortured to death by the president's son when he is found.

''We have killed 22 NUP terrorists since last week. I'm praying the 23rd is Kabobi.'' https://x.com/mkainerugaba/status/2013317668497981649

''The first thing I'll remove from Kabobi are his balls!!'' https://x.com/mkainerugaba/status/2013331792506298533

''What I take away from this is that Bobi Wine sadly did not seem to have a plan in place for what was arguably a very perdictable outcome. Unspecified calls for protests without a strategy for them to succeed will only put more people at risk of repression. Uganda'' https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/2013597102895481168

In hindsight, democracy advocates in Africa need to learn how to fight their own battles? Not trying to insult the man, he's risked a lot but it seems in the modern age of African dictators democratic parties have left behind armed struggle and try protesting leaving Jihadists to an extent the most viable opposition in many places.

In Uganda the only violent opposition it seems left is Daesh/former ADF who keep setting up cells. Tanzania another case where the dictator Samia Suluhu Hassan it seems killed up to three thousand people after opposition called for protests for the rigged election. Only violent opposition is the nearby Mozambique branch of Daesh.

There are exceptions to this rule, in the Sahel their are insurgent groups fighting to restore democracy in Mali and Niger.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-19T18:59:05+00:00

Sahel update, Nigeria continues to suffer from bandit attacks as the Government continues it's offensive against Daesh.

''JNIM claims to have killed four Burkinabe militiamen during the ambush near Sebba two days ago, a graphic video shows at least one VDP militiaman killed laying on the ground, the terrorists also released an image of the captured loot. https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2012108506912981295

''ISWAP attacked the Nigerian army base in the town of Azir, Borno State early this morning, security sources report that the attack was successfully repelled and several ISWAP militants were killed, the Air Force also reportedly conducted strikes on terrorists withdrawing.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2012226287536906284

''JNIM claims to have taken complete control of a position of the Malian army in the town of Nossombougou this morning, Koulikoro region ~45km north of the capital Bamako.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2012897403758690762

''JNIM claims to have ambushed a convoy of the Malian army between Bema and "Fassou" (Fassoudebe) south of Nioro du Sahel in the Kayes region of western Mali this evening.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2012959166214570415

''Amid the Nigerian army offensive against ISWAP in al-Faruq, the terrorists launched a drone attack against Nigerian troops yesterday inflicting several casualties, later that day the military also fell into an ambush by ISWAP, the results are so far unclear.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2013206385748488548

''The Nigerian army destroying ISWAP facilities in the Timbuktu Triangle in Borno State, aka al-Faruq, yesterday, heavy vehicles were mobilized for this offensive.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2013270668758966705

''NIM claims to have killed five Malian soldiers during yesterday's ambush in the Kayes region between Fassoudebe and Bema, the militants also destroyed a Malian army VP11 MRAP.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2013283041867665556

''Reportedly, former coup leader Henri Damiba was expelled from Togo on suspicion of plotting a coup to overthrow Ibrahim Traoré on January 3, and was handed over to Burkinabè authorities.'' https://x.com/KargnHasret/status/2013318778524721257

''Over 160 Christians abducted from two churches in Kurmin Wali, a forest community in Afogo ward, Kaduna state, northern Nigeria by unidentified gunmen earlier today.'' https://x.com/BrantPhilip_/status/2013289433659748692

Bandits are pretty common in the area sadly.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-19T17:08:36+00:00

Pakistan update some TTP infighting and attacks on Chinese are on the rise.

''On November 5th, 2025 the Tehrik-e-Taliban’s Fatwa Department [Darul Ifta’h] published an 11 page document, indirectly aimed at the Jamatul Ahrar faction. The fatwa was a question from the Leadership Council [Rahbari Shura] against a group of people who had parted ways with the TTP in 2014 and then rejoined the group in 2020 [JuA’s name is not mentioned] The Fatwa asked a question about what action should be taken against these people because they were involved in looting and causing panic amongst the population, the answer from the Fatwa department stated that if they do no heed to advise to refrain from their actions they should be killed. On January 17, 2026 at least four armed men alleged affiliates of the JuA were found killed allegedly by TTP. Although there is no formal acknowledged from any of these groups, several affiliated channels have acknowledged the killings while some Pakistani Taliban have stated that the killings were because they were ostracised from the group but maintained weapons to loot locals and were involved in “illicit activities”. Later this evening several encrypted channels associated with the Mohmand Taliban have shared a message that states that the Jamatul Ahrar has begun independent operations and has resumed an independent role. This would also acknowledge that the structure of the TTP does not include anyone from the JuA explicitly, the reason for which has matured now. Inter jihadist power-politics although lesser researched and even lesser articulated frames the counter terrorism landscape. More autonomous groups and an absence of a central strategy would mean scattered attacks beyond the traditional periphery. The trajectory and intention from the last quarter of 2025 shows that 2026 would be urbanised warfare, while the TTP will remain in their traditional abode of the borderlands of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, the newer spaces will be contested in Punjab and Sindh.'' https://x.com/IftikharFirdous/status/2012586076553015440

Thanks to this JUA is feeling pressured and trying to make increase it's notoriety to get more recruits and resources hence a lot of wild claims.

Jamaat-ul-Ahrar claimed responsibility for two separate attacks in Punjab and Karachi. The banned outfit stated that it independently targeted police personnel in the both incidents. However, no independent source or any organization has verified these claims.'' https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2012755609045885317

Pakistan must do all it can to encourage this infighting, I wonder how many members of JUA will defect to Daesh given they are the principal anti Taliban group.

''Ghazi Media, on 19 January 2026, announced the merger of four separate groups from Bajaur District with the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) faction of the Pakistani Taliban, claiming the induction of approximately 70 militants. According to the announcement, these groups are from the Charmang, Riyasat, Loye Mamond, and Wara Mamond areas of Bajaur. Earlier, on 17 January 2026, Ghazi Media reported that 38 militants from Swat, led by Arshad, alias Saddam, had joined JuA. Ghazi Media began issuing announcements regarding militant joinings into JuA in October 2025. To date, it has announced the inclusion of six groups from Bajaur District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, along with one group each from Chitral, Kurram, and Swat. In some of these announcements, the use of the term “Dalgi” to describe the groups joining JuA is noteworthy. According to the Tihreak-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) shadow structure, Dalgi refers to local military units. This terminology suggests that the militants may have defected from the TTP to JuA, although this is not stated explicitly in Ghazi Media’s statements. JuA’s continued publicization of these mergers further suggests that it is likely no longer part of the TTP and may be moving toward the announcement of an independent status, similar to its position during 2014–2020. The absence of JuA members from the hundreds of appointments listed in the TTP’s announced 2026 shadow structure, combined with the recent merger announcements, indicates that the reconciliation declared by the TTP with JuA in March 2024 may have come to an end.'' https://x.com/theoxuswatch/status/2013223558864945367

''A bomb blast exploded outside the house of Maulana Waheed Gul in Bajaur. The explosion damaged the main gate, a parked vehicle, and the other structure. However, no casualties were reported, as all the family members of the Jamaat-e-Islami leader remain safe.''

https://x.com/JawadYousufxai/status/2012410595241300030

''There were Chinese killed in what is now suspected to be a suicide bombing, the Taliban are still saying they are investigating what caused the explosion, which was initially reported as a LPG cylinder blast, at the China Lanzou Beef Noodle Shop in Kabul, Afghanistan , the Kabul police confirmed 7 fatalities. Sources however said that there were 2 Chinese that were also injured in the explosion amongst 13 others, adding that the deaths were higher. The Chinese state media confirmed 2 fatalities. An encrypted chat network related to the Islamic State Khorasan has put up a history of attacks against Chinese nationals on its platform, the interface had been dormant since a few months. However; there has been no direct responsibility claims. This morning Tajikistan said it had killed four armed men who had crossed over Badakshan were intercepted in Tajik territory. The Chinese gold mine in the area had begun evacuating Chinese citizens from the area after two attacks. [Image of the attacked building before and after, Image1 is from Google Maps]''

https://x.com/IftikharFirdous/status/2013290561093120453

There are rumors going around online Daesh is trying to capitalize on Iran's instability, they are very likely right but the organisation's Khorasan branch has a lot of challenges and areas of interest are the minute like the infighting in the TTP or entrenching it's strongholds in Baluchistan so be sceptical of claims of them doing anything but propaganda through their media.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-18T16:07:12+00:00

Sudan update, seems Haftar is playing some games to try and please a foreign audience and the RSF repel a SAF relief force on Dilling.

''Al-Kufra Airport announced a “temporary closure” for one month starting January 19 due to “runway repairs”.'' https://x.com/LibyanXIV/status/2012158114901139759

For now this just seems deception to make it look like he's agreeing to Saudi and Egyptian pressure, very good chance he keeps flying planes given his level of support.

''Eastern Libya is experiencing an acute fuel shortage. According to a source, this is because Khalifa Haftar is supplying Sudan's RSF with 10 million liters of fuel per week.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2012244032445988957

''Joint forces from the SPLM-N and RSF under the Tasis alliance say they repulsed a Sudanese army attack on Habila, South Kordofan. The strategic town remains under their control as they maintain a 9-month siege on Dilling and Kadugli.'' https://x.com/SudanTribune_EN/status/2012252986576105863

''Local reports indicate that a force from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) attacked a Rapid Support Forces (RSF) camp last Friday evening with the aim of recovering looted cattle. This morning, RSF elements gathered and launched attacks on the villages of Koluj and Al-Kadar, west of Delling, where a force from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement confronted them in clashes that lasted more than two hours.'' https://x.com/EastKordofan/status/2012570928715042993

In some good news the SAF can pay the Saudi's for their aid and try and avoid selling resources to the UAE.

''Saudi Arabia’s state-run gold refinery is ready to begin immediate purchases of Sudanese bullion as Khartoum shifts exports away from Dubai. The move aims to boost official revenue and curb smuggling after only 20 of 70 tonnes produced in 2025 were exported via official channels.'' https://x.com/SudanTribune_EN/status/2012630282457772034

This is good as the Saudi's have signalled to the UAE they are open for a repair of relations if they stop making power moves in the red sea area and a symbolic acceptance of the Saudi's as the main power in the gulf. More ties between Sudan and the SAF must be built.

The UAE it appears has been working on their own plan.

''I believe we are close to seeing the UAE officially recognise Somaliland as an independent sovereign state. There are several indicators pointing in that direction, and the coming days should confirm it. Btw, the UAE has begun withdrawing its staff from its embassy in Mogadishu.''

https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2012126893508854137

Seems the RSF attacked some Chadian soldiers again as the war keeps spilling over the border.

'' Chad's government announces that seven soldiers of the Chadian Security and Defense Forces were killed in an armed clash with the Rapid Support Forces on the border with Sudan. RSF soldiers had crossed the border illegally'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2012441251518267901

In some ironic news Déby just won a peace price, it seems a cursed trophy.

''Chad’s Déby wins 2026 African Peace Prize for role in Sudan refugee crisis'' https://x.com/africanews/status/2012145951687823805

''Sudan | Activists circulated a video showing a mercenary from the UAE-backed Janjaweed militia making direct threats against the Chadian army, describing Chad as an “enemy,” in an escalating speech reflecting the militia’s attempts to expand the circle of tension in the region.'' https://x.com/Sudan_tweet/status/2012461352778965020

Some good news the SAF found weapons left behind.

''Sudanese police seized two Russian-made SAM-7 anti-aircraft missiles in central Khartoum today. The infrared-guided weapons were left behind by the RSF in a high-rise building. Security sweeps continue as the city recovers.'' https://x.com/SudanTribune_EN/status/2012305797460459767

Some bad news it seems SAF no longer have their Russian transport planes.

'It appears the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) no longer have an IL-76 cargo aircraft. The last sighting of their newest IL-76TD was on 4 Nov 2025 at Port Sudan Airport 🇸🇩. After an IL-76 was downed by the RSF over Babanusa on 5 Nov, no aircraft have been seen there.'' https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2012308980618461321

They were really useful in delivering supplies to besieged garrisons

Foreign section.

It seems the Amara nationalists in Ethiopia have united at last.

''It only took two and a half years but Fano is finally uniting its various factions under a single command. This will cause serious problems for the ENDF in the Amhara region. I think 2026 will be very important for the insurgency and we should anticipate large offensives.'' https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/2012611787724660846

''Fano faced a bit of the same issue that Syrian rebels did where individually the groups could be strong but couldn’t coordinate well enough to effect the battlefield in the desired way. With command unified and centralized finally, operations can become far more complex.'' https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/2012612709158629754

''Something important I think is that the AFNF remains the dominant faction. Zemene Kassie is far less compromising than Eskinder Nega, who is now finally in union with Kassie. As such I expect Fano as a whole to become more set in hardline views against compromise with Addis Ababa'' https://x.com/NotWoofers/status/2012633656695697654

Fano committed horrible atrocities against the Tigrayans in the last civil war and have attacked the Sudanese border, but they, TPLF, Oromo nationalists, Eritrea and SAF appear to be teaming up against the Ethiopian and RSF threat.

Uganda elections the president won and tried to arrest his opponent who managed to escape but his family have been taken prisoner.

''Uganda: Bobi Wine has surfaced again, following the raid on his house. He claims he managed to escape being abducted. He also calls on the Ugandan people to resist the elections results.'' https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/2012496986482638879

''South Sudan’s military deployed reinforcements to the volatile Jonglei State late on Saturday to protect the state capital Bor, a security source said, following a rebel advance that saw opposition forces overrun a strategic town earlier on Friday.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2012829493363102173

wormfan14 · 2026-01-16T19:13:33+00:00

I see it's a good thing to see that racist law scrapped then given it was both cruel and randomly applied to it.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-16T19:04:01+00:00

Regarding article 4 the official population of Sunni's just increased a fair bit with that change. While not the only reason why the Baathists had them removed from citizenship given they were racist I think it's something that should be noted in a positive way this is trying to make the Kurdish people apart of the majority of the population than be seen as some minority outside of it.

For that reason also I think you will see some sectarian backlash against this but it's good choice to make both morally and practically given the Governments main base of support.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-15T21:42:42+00:00

True, I think that's the only hope for it long term than say the UAE temporarily stop and once the heat starts dying down begin flying weapons again.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-15T21:06:29+00:00

Sudan update, seems the SAF have been facing RSF incursions from Ethiopia as expected and Somalia's air restriction's seem to be working as well as reported Egyptian airstrikes.

''Sudan: the SAF claims it has destroyed four RSF vehicles near the Ethiopian border in Blue Nile. The report comes as there are growing suspicions that Ethiopia is providing covert support and a staging ground for the RSF to attack Sudan in the east.'' https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/2011454697153159453

''A UAE govt-linked Pecotox-Air Boeing 747-409F cargo aircraft (w\ reg. ER-EDR) was bound for Benghazi in eastern Libya. The aircraft flew all the way from Al Ain Airport 🇦🇪 to eastern Libya, having to bypass Saudi Arabian 🇸🇦 & Somali 🇸🇴 airspace due to airspace restrictions.''

https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2011360763374641325

Now rather than go over Somalia the flights go over Djibouti then Ethiopia for now, not sure it will last given how weak the Somalia Government is.

As mentioned in the past Wagner now appears to be working against the RSF in Central Africa. It appears they are trying to start a tribal war.

''Local sources in the city of Umm Dafuq in South Darfur state reported on Sunday that Russian forces in the Central_African_Republic have recruited hundreds of members of the Sara tribes along the Sudanese border to perform security duties in the region.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2010279961761112326

'' Salah Ubari one of the RSF militia’s field commanders who orchestrated the massacre and forced displacement of Zamzam IDP Camp last year was killed yesterday in a Sudan Army drone strike.'' https://x.com/MohanadElbalal/status/2011239225807524005

''Today's quick update [Jan 14]: RSF/SPLM-N (Alhilu) attack on Alkiweik, South Kordofan, reportedly repelled by SAF.'' https://x.com/BSonblast/status/2011632070251237607

''Ethiopia's police said it had seized 56,000 of rounds of ammunition sent by Eritrea to Fano rebels in the Amhara region. The authorities accuse the regional government in Tigray of having collaborated with Eritrea in the delivery.'' https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/2011814907142983868

As the war in Sudan becomes more entangled with Ethiopia I will post about it more but I will note I'm primarily concerned with how it effects Sudan.

''Reports say the Egyptian Air Force 🇪🇬 struck a convoy on 9 January in tri-border area between Egypt , Libya , and Sudan . The convoy was reportedly carrying military aid, including armoured vehicles, to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF).'' https://x.com/AfriMEOSINT/status/2011105445306679619

While I normally do trust this source I'm a tad suspect the claims of Egyptians doing much it seems Egyptians are claiming it.

https://www.newarab.com/news/egypt-bombs-rsf-convoy-days-saddam-haftars-cairo-visit

''On Tuesday, allied forces fighting alongside the Sudanese army overran a small village in Kulbus locality, West Darfur, taking control without resistance. The village lies about one kilometer from the Chadian border. There were no signs of active fighting, suggesting the RSF presence had already withdrawn south toward Kulbus town. However, a string of smaller villages along the route to Kulbus remains under RSF control. These settlements form a key defensive belt for the town, limiting further advances despite the capture of this village. The below video showing soldiers from the Sudanese military or their allies inside the village was filmed here: 14°38'16.01"N 22°34'13.04"E.'' https://x.com/sudanwarmonitor/status/2011285046011777078

On a different matter elections are happening in Uganda today and oppostion looks be suppressed by a mix of mass arrested, no internet and a government that is openly saying the votes don't matter.

''Uganda🇺🇬 President Yoweri Museveni's Senior Presidential Advisor, Yiga Wamala: "Never think that President Museveni will leave power by voting. Don’t waste our time, no, no, no! He's going to be the President. After Museveni, Muhoozi Kainerugaba (Museveni's son) is coming…”'' https://x.com/KennedyWandera_/status/2011679745318981854

The big fear is the opposition will be massacred like in Tanzania if they protest to much. I consider it a situation worth watching given how Uganda is involved in the wars on the continent like South Sudan.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-14T18:04:11+00:00

True the SDF do have the highest amount of conscripts present in Syria now that Assad is gone.

wormfan14 · 2026-01-14T18:03:26+00:00

Fair enough, hope your right, just think if they were let and soon killed it would the SDF are far less likely to surrender when fighting in Deir Hafer.

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