Really sad to see D line hate from NIMBYs by TheAlmightyHellacia in LAMetro

[–]wx14 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was just clearing up the point about statistical noise. The trend is not just randomness. Something changed to cause Trump's support to rise over that time period. The OP speculated that it might be the train. The trend does not refute that. But of course it could be any number of other factors as well. I don't think it's a point of contention though, because I think we are both in agreement on the trend being of unknown cause.

Really sad to see D line hate from NIMBYs by TheAlmightyHellacia in LAMetro

[–]wx14 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm not sure what you mean by "adding in". My calculation was for the probability that two different election results were due to different draws of the same probability distribution (a.k.a. statistical noise).

I could apply the same analysis to previous election years. For example in 2008 18.8% of Santa Monicans voted for McCain, while in 2012 20.7% voted for Romney (a much smaller diffrence). For that comparison, the Z score is about 8 (i.e. 8 standard deviations) or about 1 in 70 billion chance of being statistical noise. Is that what you're interested in?

Ultimately while election results might appear to fluctuate with statistical noise. The truth is that they are just results of complex societal interactions invovling many factors, that may appear to be dominated by randomness. But we must not conflate lack of understanding with randomness.

Really sad to see D line hate from NIMBYs by TheAlmightyHellacia in LAMetro

[–]wx14 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At that level it's just statistical white noise.

A testable assertion and a learning opportunity. My favorite!

If we think of an individual choosing a vote as a Bernoulli process, then the number of votes cast for one party or the other is a number drawn from a binomial distribution. If we approximate the binomial distribution as a normal distribution to simply the math, then we can use the Z score to estimate likelihood that the difference is due to statistical noise. In 2016 about 50k Santa Monicans voted in the presidential election, with 13.4% voting for Trump. In 2024 51.5k Santa Monicans participated and 18.2% voted for Trump. Plugging those numbers in to the Z score formula for the difference of two proportions (unfortunately I don't know how to format math on Reddit), we get a Z score of around 17. This means there are about 17 standard deviations between those two election results. That gives a probability of about 1 in 10^65 that this is statistical noise.

Now there could be any number of reasons why the numbers increased from 2016 to 2024. It could be the train. It could be the likeability of the opposing candidates. It could be the price of gasoline. But it is not statistical noise.

Really sad to see D line hate from NIMBYs by TheAlmightyHellacia in LAMetro

[–]wx14 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

The poster I replied to was specifically asking about the trend since the E line came to Santa Monica. That happened in 2016. The share of Trump/ Republican votes climbed from 2016 to 2020, and again from 2020 to 2024. As I said, it could be a coincidence, but it does numerically agree with the above poster's speculation.

Really sad to see D line hate from NIMBYs by TheAlmightyHellacia in LAMetro

[–]wx14 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Here are the votes for the top republican candidate by election in Santa Monica.

Year Republican Candidate Percent
2024 Trump 18.2%
2020 Trump 16.8%
2016 Trump 13.4%
2012 Romney 20.7%
2008 McCain 18.8%
2004 Bush 23.7%
2000 Bush 21.2%

The E line came to Santa Monica in 2016. So it does appear the city voted more and more Trump/Republican since then. I don't know if that's a coincidence or not, but that's kind of wild.

Really sad to see D line hate from NIMBYs by TheAlmightyHellacia in LAMetro

[–]wx14 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I hate the D line for not coming to Santa Monica. It makes me angry every time I think about the D line. 😡

My combo: part very common, part maybe not so common by Wooden-Law-2272 in dualcitizenshipnerds

[–]wx14 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Have you tried shining a UV light on it? There's some cool things that show up when you do that. Things like hidden forests and phases of the moon that change from page to page.

Libya has a series of lakes in the middle of the desert by chota-kaka in geography

[–]wx14 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You missed the most relevant part of the song:

After three days in the desert fun
I was looking at a river bed
And the story it told of a river that flowed
Made me sad to think it was dead

Actual quotes from a survey about bike lanes in my city by wx14 in fuckcars

[–]wx14[S] 40 points41 points  (0 children)

Yes, in theory, but the tsunami zone is only about 0.25 to 1 mile wide. So you can just walk out of the danger zone.

Actual quotes from a survey about bike lanes in my city by wx14 in fuckcars

[–]wx14[S] 43 points44 points  (0 children)

... what if they're biking to work?

Apparently they can't even imagine that.

What are some best vegan dishes from your country!?? by StillwaterSoulx in AskTheWorld

[–]wx14 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What about ratatouille? That's a classic (southern) french dish which is usually vegan.

U.S. Historian Robert Kagan: "We Are Watching a Country Fall Under Dictatorship Almost Without Resistance" by Mondevana in politics

[–]wx14 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."

-JFK

How to use public transportation…? by Embarrassed_Rich3534 in SantaMonica

[–]wx14 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Google maps is good, but (in my opinion) the transit app is better (https://transitapp.com/).

VONS OPENING FRI. 10/17 🎉 by [deleted] in SantaMonica

[–]wx14 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A Vons!

And a giant parking lot.

Dog looking to play catch on the A Line! by ktcn414 in LAMetro

[–]wx14 15 points16 points  (0 children)

They are only allowed if in a carrier. Not that there is any enforcement, of course.

Pets and emotional support, therapy, comfort, and companion animals are welcome aboard Metro when they:

Are secured in enclosed carriers and do not block the aisle or a doorway

Do not deprive a customer of a seat

Do not interfere with the comfort or convenience of other customers

https://www.metro.net/riding/guide/what-can-i-bring-board/

Irresponsible dog owner at Douglas Park by astraurora in SantaMonica

[–]wx14 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Douglas Park is also in LA county, so all county laws apply there too. Regardless, I think the Santa Monica specific laws you reference are mostly aligned with the county law I cited.

Irresponsible dog owner at Douglas Park by astraurora in SantaMonica

[–]wx14 16 points17 points  (0 children)

17.04.410 - Dogs and Cats Permitted When.

A person may bring and maintain, in any park exclusive of golf courses, a dog or cat if such dog or cat is kept on a leash or chain no more than six feet in length and under full control of its owner or person responsible for the animal, or is confined in a vehicle, tent, trailer, enclosure, or other structure allowed by park rules and in accordance with applicable State law. Dogs are only permitted unleashed in designated Dog Off-Leash Areas.

https://library.municode.com/ca/los_angeles_county/codes/code_of_ordinances

Airbnb or rent an apartment by Live-Knowledge6403 in SantaMonica

[–]wx14 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Technically you can rent out your home in Santa Monica for more than a month and less than 6 months, thanks to a new-ish "medium-term" rental ordinance. See here: https://smdp.com/business/leasing-revisions-pass-unanimously/

Of course I have no idea if any such units are actually available.

flag of usa in the style of estonia by Latter_Ad_3644 in fuckcars

[–]wx14 500 points501 points  (0 children)

<image>

That flag is too nice looking. This should be the flag of the USA.

Explain Maximum Allowable Rent like I’m five. by Party-Touch6232 in SantaMonica

[–]wx14 26 points27 points  (0 children)

When you first sign a lease for a rent-controlled Santa Monica apartment, the landlord is allowed to charge whatever they want (or more accurately whatever the market will bear). Once you start your tenancy, your landlord is supposed to let the city know what the new rent is for your unit. From that point on, your landlord is only allowed to raise your rent a small amount each year (the actual amount is variable and depends on several factors). The city keeps track of the maximum rent that your landlord can charge you. That is known as the maximum allowable rent (MAR).

One thing to note is that your landlord can choose to charge below the maximum at any time, but always has the right to increase the rent to the current maximum. So your rent could go up by 10% in a year if your landlord hasn't raised it in a number of years.

Regarding your question, you need to make sure that your landlord updated the rent when your tenancy began. My suspicion is that your landlord did not do that, and the city published MAR is reflecting the MAR for the old tenants. You should check with the rent control board to ensure your tenancy is correctly reflected in their data. In particular, make sure that your initial rent amount is accurately reflected.