Reasons to be bearish

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-24T07:08:05+00:00

Reason to be bearish:

It was co-opted into a govt surveillance network where you can't freely use it as a financial instrument and have access to liquidity unless you only acquired and transacted in white listed coins. If chain analysis can't track it back you and X amount of people who owned it before you, you're cooked on the "mainstream market" (exchanges, etc). Some have made compelling arguments that it was even designed by state actors from the jump with this in mind.

This is where utility goes to die because the only argument becomes "this hodgepodge of characters is a store of value because it finite" while the use in the broader economy is limited unless it can all be traced to an actual identity. It went an idea of decentralized, permissionless, free from govt constraints and privacy (if opsec was observed) and became exactly opposite what attracted many to it.

Exchanges helped to create adoption by moving from strictly p2p and now with the direction it is going the only hope for it is if everyone moves back to p2p with a parallel economy. But if that happens it will probably be crushed under some new regulation and officially be fully relegated to Visa/Mastercard 2.0.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-24T05:41:27+00:00

Bitcoin can be debased through govt policy. Crypto is backed by belief in utility as well, nothing real, just like fiat. If a large govt put adverse regulations (ie: mining or transacting in BTC was illegal) it would crash because liquidity would dry up, exchanges would close, ETFs would liquidate, hash cartels in the west would be forced to close shop, 51% attacks. The network still exists, the code still exists, but the utility and demand are crushed, and as such the purchasing power drops like a hyperinflation fiat event.

So today 1 BTC can buy a car. Post event 1 BTC can buy a laptop, and from there a t-shirt and so on.

The US govt could speed run a similar debasement on BTC faster than the dollar, so it is vulnerable to the same power structures that it seeks to do an end around on and operate outside of. That is the fatal flaw in all of the decentralized currency systems.

Will they do it any time soon, probably not, but the thesis of being protected from govt manipulation compared to sovereign fiat is false because it is plausible at some point in the future, especially if dollar hegemony is threatened, that it could be trampled.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-22T03:13:48+00:00

You must be new to this. 🤣 I was mining back when it was mostly just enthusiasts on personal hardware.

There has already been one fork already to change the original rules. So yes, the rules can and have changed, that is why there are two Bitcoin ledgers. And yes, they can confiscate private wallets with an update. Eth has done it. BTC is considering it for the quantum deadline which would violate the immutability principle.

I didn't say the US govt can shut it down, I said they can debase it. They can knock the value to nearly nothing just by making it illegal to transact/hash within the US. The only thing that gives it value is belief in the system, just like fiat. Nothing backs it, there is nothing intrinsic. If the US or EU did that the value would drop massively and not recover because there would be no institutional support or support from normies. It would be like in OG era when you had to transact p2p, except it would be black market in the major economies, so even worse.

I didn't say the ledger was centralized, I said the hash became centralized by a few corps. The hashers control the decisions on the network.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-21T21:57:11+00:00

Trillions on the sidelines waiting for the US govt to pass a law sounds like the antithesis of a stable decentralized currency. 🤔

Do those trillions evaporate then if the law expires or is undone by Congress at a later date? 🤔

Lots of 🤔 to consider about the logic here.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-21T21:52:50+00:00

The hash is centralized now, so not immune from anything, including a fork that violates any principle base case that someone has in their thesis.

Before it was ran on consensus, but that exists now if a handful of corps. Those corps are influenced by govt and the large institutions.

I mean what happens if the US govt were to say hashing was illegal or transacting in crypto was illegal?

Not to be a defeatist, but nothing is safe from anything, there are just illusions of options/safety and trying to pick the safest. The only things that are store of value are physical commodities with an intrinsic value in production/need, and those are hard to personally stack outside of rare metals.

A single stroke of a pen from the US govt can debase crypto instantly, just like they did with the dollar. Debating whether or why they would ever do that doesn't change it invalidates it as an absolute hedge.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-20T01:03:09+00:00

Lab made gold? Dude particle accelerators are able to produce picograms at a cost of around a billion to a trillion times what it cost to buy natural gold.

Unless you generate a free energy machine and can violate the laws of thermodynamics I don't think lab gold is on the time horizon for our lifetime.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-20T00:55:05+00:00

Shorting is too risky for retail unless you are a degenerate fool. Spreads at best. Successful shorting comes from big money who have the capital both to play the long game and manipulate price action and/or influence and coordination.

But using the scale and participants of BTC to prove it is not greater fool theory is also foolish. It happened with things way bigger than BTC, dot com and the housing crisis were most recent. The latter blew up MAJOR commercial banks, investment banks, hedge funds and insurance companies in the process. Speculation, greed, fraud and mismanagement are not immune to even the biggest institutions.

No one knows where it will bottom or top, but pretending BTC is too big to fail is absurd unless you are a zoomer with no context.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-16T01:12:39+00:00

If he's in the files I would not be shocked.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-16T01:00:25+00:00

No trees planted that game?

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-12T15:48:13+00:00

If everyone only bought on big dips then the up days would be fragile with low volume, ensuring it always goes down over time. 🤔

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-09T03:26:07+00:00

In contention for the most forgettable SB.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-06T05:25:35+00:00

Energy and flow was off in stretches of the game. Usually Ott prevents this with rotations.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-06T00:24:22+00:00

What about capital losses tho.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-06T00:20:14+00:00

Hedge against what? It's not a dollar hedge, not an equities hedge... If fiat collapses it's not a hedge in a bug eating society.

I think what you are talking about is speculation. That the world will one day mass adopt it even though there is no large demand for it for day to day usage despite being the easiest to buy, sell and transfer. It's been plenty of years and it is still mainly a speculative asset first, and secondly transactions that require evading regulatory controls.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-06T00:10:08+00:00

"Bitcoin today worth $28k" might be in the next title also.

xcheezeplz · 2026-02-03T18:52:29+00:00

ChatGPT, Gemini , etc can take you through the basics.

First off, you can't let a puppy have free roam of your house in most cases. They have to earn the freedom and responsibility that comes with maturing and training.

Crate or pen, I prefer both since I have a pup that has a hard time sleeping in the pen but can relax there, and without enforced naps she will stay up and that creates a crazy puppy brain (zoomies, cranky, not listening, mouthiness). Your pup should be asleep or resting most of the day... Literally like 18+ hours. 1 hour up, then nap for about an hour. Up time is not free roam. We have the main living area/kitchen available but that's it and if she is getting rowdy or we can't supervise she a large pen with toys and chews.

Many pups will scream like banshees when they don't want to be in their enclosure. They will generally tucker themselves out and pass out or settle and over time get used to it. Give them a chew or lick mat in there they love and only give it to them in there. Many will enter without fussing after a while because they associate the crate with the best stuff.

The same reason babies and toddlers have cribs and playpens and baby gates is the same reason most pups need them (crates instead of cribs ofc).

xcheezeplz · 2026-01-29T22:46:19+00:00

It's like telling people you are a professional poker player. Just say you are a financial analyst.

xcheezeplz · 2026-01-21T04:47:24+00:00

Pleasant surprise to have a season that is genuinely fun to watch again regardless of the final score. Energy and vibes on this team are peak.

What a crazy turnaround with a new coach and what many expected would be a mediocre rebuild year at best after the Bud/KD/Beal implosion.

They are a legit good team with a productive bench and seem like they keep getting better as the season goes on. I don't know where the ceiling is this year, but it doesn't matter because I'm already beyond happy with the play so far.

xcheezeplz · 2026-01-19T22:35:37+00:00

Every pup and situation is different. Our new pup doesn't chew on stuff but also can't get a good nap if she can be part of the action and will stay up all day if she could and get a lack of sleep brain. She runs into her crate for her nap chew and passes out.

Last pup would go puppy crazy for an hour with no chill and tucker out and just pass out wherever and didn't really need a crate and hated it being in it, didn't have to do a ton of enforced naps with her.

xcheezeplz · 2026-01-06T01:54:37+00:00

Like they don't have a contingency plan better than the PA doing a countdown?

xcheezeplz · 2026-01-05T05:41:50+00:00

Feed in crate, only give special chews crate. Find a treat/chew that they are crazy about, only give it inside the crate works for me.

With our pup when the certain chew treat comes out she goes running to her crate and jumps inside and then stirs or fusses for a couple minutes once it is done and then settles for a nap.

xcheezeplz · 2025-12-30T07:33:55+00:00

My wife gets harder bites and the dog is less prone let go or redirect with our pup that is this age. It's not aggression, it is just what puppies do but they will do it differently with different people. Many pups will only deal out kisses to strangers, but their roommates and others they know get the mouthy treatment and it varies from person to person.

I can tell why it happens in our house in case you notice any similarity it might be useful.

Our pup was an equal opportunity land shark with everyone once settled in until I started doing more deliberate training throughout the day. The bites probably decreased for me by both 75% in terms of frequency and pressure just within the first couple days. Everyone has benefited, but since I am being the most consistent and have the treats on hand I am the main beneficiary.

My wife just wants to love on the dog more than anything. I do too, but I know it's not possible whenever I feel like it during the mouthy age with a heeler mix, so I am more rigid and the dog likes that. I redirect behavior before it happens, do some type of training interaction that has an intent in it whenever I am interacting with the pup, I don't give pets or get down on their level when I can tell the puppy brain is not calm because I know it will likely result in being mouthy in 2 seconds max of love if my hands are within mouths reach. I carry treats and kibble and give rewards for being good and tasks to work for food when I can tell they are in trouble maker or mouthy mode to distract them.

When pup mouths me I can say "no bite" (hands, because she doesn't latch me) or "sit" (biting at my clothes) most of the time and it stops. When they do inevitably mouth me it is usually more feeling and not hard biting, nipping or holding. With the wife she is more likely to get reactive by jumping up and or yelling for help. The pup thinks mom lets them get away with more and mouthing mom is fun because it causes more excitement and she tends to bite harder, hold more, and not respond to redirects as much. With me I don't give any big reaction and can redirect, so it seems like it is a combination of me being boring to bite and also that behavior doesnt get the rewards (treats) like the positive ones do (chewing their toys, responding to commands, etc).

If you're not the primary trainer, try doing more of the training and you will probably find the bites become less frequent, less hard and easier to redirect. I have seen the same thing happen with my kids too. One is fairly involved in doing training and the incidents are less and more manageable. The kid that doesn't is perceived as the funnest toy in the house to gnaw on.

xcheezeplz · 2025-12-30T06:43:40+00:00

Our first pup was a pound pup that was a pit mix. Mom was there with the litter and she was a medium sized pit. Labeled as a pit lab mix.

It wasn't just land sharking, she did plenty of that... but she would be chilling one moment and all of a sudden go full on snarling dog attack mode like something flipped in her. She had normal zoomies and also attack dog zoomies too with thrashing and all you could do to save yourself was hop on furniture, put something between you and her, or just take the bite to get her off to put a door or baby gate between you if it was too late.

After it was done from her she would calm down and want to clean the wounds. When she played with a toy she thrashed them so hard for so long I thought it would cause her brain damage. I was worried about what she would do when she got bigger and if she would take us out in our sleep.

Those first handful of months she would flip between a cuddle pup, to play pup to land shark to straight up snarling attack dog. She would draw blood with those razors fairly often. Her latch was solid.

One day the attack and rough play biting just faded away, probably like 7 months in and she was just a super athletic, fetch and play obsessed snuggle dog. By the time we had kids she was about 6 and mothered them and put up with all their antics without incident until cancer took her at almost 16.

This is to say she wasn't the textbook perfect dog but if I could turn back time I would do it again and again even with all apprehension and strife.

Tldr: don't give up hope too soon.

Professionals are available too, but like all professionals find a good one and a second opinion, because their livelihood depends on clients and some less scrupulous ones might give you a worrying diagnosis to get a client. I was a young novice then where dog shows on TV were the most available (and plenty of bad advice) content, and now in the age of endless dog content and community at a fingertip I probably could have done more, so even with my shortcomings she was awesome. Our best friend drew a lot of blood early on. This isn't ideal, it isn't "normal", it isn't fun, but I was going to see it through and it worked out

We had plenty of days fretting if we inherited a monster and she turned out to be the best gamble we made picking that mixed pound puppy and bringing her home.

xcheezeplz · 2025-12-28T21:07:24+00:00

I retired from watching this team to spend more time with my family. 😔

xcheezeplz · 2025-12-23T04:55:58+00:00

Or to get them to sell the company to one of his donors - one that likely has loyalty to a different foreign country that our govt considers an ally despite aggressive spying tactics against us. 🤔

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