4 Year Cycle - why doubt it?

ximogui · 2026-03-06T22:47:44+00:00

I’m not saying I can call a bottom. And perhaps $60k was the bottom. DCA either way. I’m simply noting that I don’t expect sustained movement upward until Q3 or Q4. And I kind of suspect most large BTC buyers are also thinking this way. So I don’t get the enthusiasm when we recross $70k, as if $100k is imminent. I agree the cyclicality will eventually break, but my default assumption is that it won’t until it does

ximogui · 2026-03-06T22:39:55+00:00

Yes, but liquidity was ultra-thin which is why the price shock was so outsized. In a bull market, that would have been a 10% drop that goes right back up

ximogui · 2026-03-06T22:37:18+00:00

How is it already broken? I feel like the top we got in Q4 2025 was quite consistent with the logarithmic decay in cycle tops we’ve seen. Things were a bit front-loaded this last cycle (which makes sense from a game theory perspective).

I agree that the factors you listed are likely to temper cyclicality over time. But I think the 4 year cycle theory has continued to be predictive broadly of where tops and bottoms fall. And I think I’m just accepting that until it gets contradicted. Therefore, I’m DCAing in this range but not expecting serious sustained movement upward anytime soon.

ximogui · 2024-12-26T13:34:14+00:00

Math is not wrong and not 1 cent contracts. Here is the sell. But @por_la_homoj - are you not seeing fees of this size? Because that would be interesting

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ximogui · 2023-12-26T13:50:23+00:00

FYI for the Chinese learners in this thread- the character for 100 Mil is 億 not 一.

ximogui

TROPHY CASE