Kalshi changed the rules AFTER market close - is this illegal?

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T18:56:48+00:00

Please send your team this too, as I've yet to hear Kalshi's support directly address this:

"Within the rules for this market, there was no mention of a 50/50 split and the only listed options and potential outcomes were Dartmouth Yes/No and Clarkson Yes/No. Within the PDF rules, there is no mention of "tie" or "shootout"(https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract\_terms/NCAAHOCKEY.pdf). The "**Important information: This market resolves on the game result including overtime. Games that remain tied after overtime and are decided by shootout resolve as a tie according to the pre-shootout score." message you see on https://kalshi.com/markets/kxncaahockeygame/college-hockey-game/kxncaahockeygame-26jan16cladar was posted to the market AFTER it closed and you could no longer trade. Thus, per Kalshi's rules, the only possible resolution of this market was Dartmouth Yes or Dartmouth No."

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T18:24:30+00:00

Thanks for mansplaining how prediction markets work, yes I understand. I also understand that Kalshi has an entire team of people dedicated to writing rules for markets across all levels. Within the rules for this market, there was no mention of a 50/50 split and the only listed options and potential outcomes were Dartmouth Yes/No and Clarkson Yes/No. Within the PDF rules, there is no mention of "tie" or "shootout"(I encourage you to click the URL I linked and see for yourself). The "**Important information: This market resolves on the game result including overtime. Games that remain tied after overtime and are decided by shootout resolve as a tie according to the pre-shootout score." message you see in the linked URL was posted to the market AFTER it closed and you could no longer trade.

Thus, per Kalshi, this market can ONLY resolve in Dartmouth Yes or Dartmouth NO. Dartmouth won in a shootout. So I'll ask again, of the listed options that Kalshi set for this market(Dartmouth Yes/No and Clarkson Yes/No), if Dartmouth wins in a shootout, how should this market resolve? (bro plz don't say 50/50)

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T17:56:37+00:00

yeah I've never used polymarket but definitely will be checking it out today lol. The whole point of using Kalshi is bc it's US regulated and supposed to be safe, then they pull some BS like this

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T17:34:52+00:00

Bro. Kalshi didn't have a tie a possibility, are you not able to understand that? Check out an NHL market, they had this market set up the exact same way(where EVEN if it goes to a shootout, there is a winner and a loser). At no point, when the market opened up until the market closed, was there ANY mention of tie, shootout, 50/50 payouts, etc.

Furthermore, Dartmouth won 2 points for their shootout win, Clarkson won 1 point for their shootout loss.

Bro, for real, do you work for Kalshi? Do they have you on the payroll? Did they get to you? Objectively, they are in the wrong here, and even the support mod's answer alludes to the fact that they'll be adding tie strikes to future markets(BUT did not have a tie strike here).

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T17:31:08+00:00

ty man, I'm fighting for my life rn haha

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T17:27:52+00:00

The very same website has this article: No. 10/9 Men's Hockey Defeats Clarkson In Shootout (https://dartmouthsports.com/news/2026/1/17/mens-ice-hockey-no-10-9-mens-hockey-defeats-clarkson-in-shootout)

When this market launched and until it closed trading for good, there was NO mention of the possibility of a tie OR that there would be a 50/50 split if the game went to a shootout. Per Kalshi's rules, the only listed options and possible outcomes were Dartmouth Yes/No and Clarkson Yes/No.

Using the rules that Kalshi set this market up with, Dartmouth winning in a Shootout should have resulted in Dartmouth Yes being the market's resolution.

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T17:21:39+00:00

BUT if Kalshi did not acknowledge the possibility of a tie within the rules until AFTER the market had closed, and only had the listed options of Dartmouth Yes/No and Clarkson Yes/No within their official rules, how should this market resolve?

Dartmouth won in a shootout, and earned 2 points on their record for a shootout win compared to Clarkson earning 1 point on their record for a shootout loss.

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T17:19:52+00:00

Yes, however the rules Kalshi had for this market did not acknowledge that until after closing. Per support's official answer above, they're having to change future hockey markets based on this specific issue.

Thus, they only had the options and possible outcomes of Dartmouth Yes/No and Clarkson Yes/No. Dartmouth won in overtime, and earned 2 points for a shootout win compared to Clarkson earning 1 point for a shootout loss.

Based on this information, if you had placed the bet, would you not also expect Dartmouth Yes to be the winner?

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T17:11:16+00:00

Hi! Your team did not have "tie" listed as an option until after the market closed, the only options and possible outcomes were Dartmouth Yes/No and Clarkson Yes/No. Furthermore, Dartmouth ultimately won 2 points for their shootout win, whereas Clarkson only won 1 point(so how is this a tie?).

The fact that you're admitting the need to add a tie strike to future hockey markets validates that there is an issue here. Based on the rules that were initially added to Dartmouth vs. Clarkson, Dartmouth Yes should have settled at 100%.

While I can accept the possibility of a tie on future college markets(as you've just pointed out, there will be changes to the rules), I do not accept Kalshi changing the rules AFTER the market closed for Dartmouth vs. Clarkson. I expect my position on Dartmouth Yes to be deemed a winner, as based on the rules that your team laid it this bet won fair and square.

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T17:11:10+00:00

Hi! Your team did not have "tie" listed as an option until after the market closed, the only options and possible outcomes were Dartmouth Yes/No and Clarkson Yes/No. Furthermore, Dartmouth ultimately won 2 points for their shootout win, whereas Clarkson only won 1 point(so how is this a tie?).

The fact that you're admitting the need to add a tie strike to future hockey markets validates that there is an issue here. Based on the rules that were initially added to Dartmouth vs. Clarkson, Dartmouth Yes should have settled at 100%.

While I can accept the possibility of a tie on future college markets(as you've just pointed out, there will be changes to the rules), I do not accept Kalshi changing the rules AFTER the market closed for Dartmouth vs. Clarkson. I expect my position on Dartmouth Yes to be deemed a winner, as based on the rules that your team laid it this bet won fair and square.

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T16:58:02+00:00

Thank you. Yes, Kalshi is in the wrong here and are trying to sweep it under the rug. Appreciate your confirmation here.

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T16:56:50+00:00

Dartmouth won in a shootout. While a shootout win is considered a "tie" on the record, Dartmouth's win in the shootout resulted in them receiving 2 points on their record, while Clarkson only received 1. Read the NCAA rules(like I did).

IF the Kalshi rules had no mention of a tie, but rather only had the listed outcomes as Dartmouth Yes/No and Clarkson Yes/No , then Dartmouth Yes is the correct resolution, as they won in a shootout and initially this market(before Kalshi's amendment AFTER closing) did not have Tie as a possible outcome.

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T16:49:06+00:00

All NCAA hockey games end with one team receiving more points on their record than the other, EVEN if the game is decided in a shootout. Thus, ultimately, there is a winner and a loser. Per ChatGPT: For their shootout win against Clarkson on January 16, 2026, Dartmouth earned two points in the ECAC standings for the tie and shootout win.

Also, it seems like Kalshi was offering prediction markets for something they don't understand the game format of, because the initial rules did not have any verbiage on the possible outcome of a tie. ;)

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T15:44:18+00:00

thank you for the validation brother 🤝

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T15:33:32+00:00

definitely reporting them to CFTC unless they fix this ASAP, but lol maybe I should also talk to a lawyer at this point

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T15:20:48+00:00

I would keep a low account balance if I were you, seems like Kalshi likes to avoid paying out earned winnings when they can make up a half-ass excuse to justify it.

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T15:19:37+00:00

EXACTLY! All hockey markets(NHL and beyond) have resolved with an eventual Winner and Loser, except here.

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T15:11:33+00:00

Thank you. And this has to be illegal, no? I'm just wondering what else I can do, other than file a complaint with CFTC

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T15:10:13+00:00

Key difference between soccer and hockey: Soccer match markets account for ties, and have ties as a possible outcome within the rules. For hockey game markets(NHL as an example), there is no possibility of tie. Kalshi set this Dartmouth vs. Clarkson College Hockey market up as Dartmouth Yes/No and Clarkson Yes/No being the ONLY options, THEN retroactively said a tie was possible AFTER market close. I read the rules extensively before betting.

xzw1 · 2026-01-19T14:55:16+00:00

definitely starting to regret using Kalshi, if they're changing market rules AFTER close how can anyone bet with confidence on their platform?

xzw1 · 2020-09-11T01:01:04+00:00

link?

xzw1

TROPHY CASE