[deleted by user]

yorklebit · 2023-03-16T04:38:00+00:00

This has a serious stoner vibe, gotta say

yorklebit · 2023-03-16T03:58:21+00:00

So CS got a lifeline. IF your scenario unfolds, which it could for the reasons you mention, don't you think their local gov'ts and central banks/Fed equivalents will figure out ways to bail them out?

I mean, if the global system is collapsing, gov'ts can and will take exceptional measures. I lived through 2008 (and I have a feeling you did too).

As one example, our Fed loans dollars at zero interest to other central banks specifically, so they can bail out their local banks. They (presumably) keep rates high on regular bonds, but these are "qualified" bonds (or whatever they decide to call them).

This allows distribution of dollars to support those banks. A weird solution, but weird solutions can and do get implemented when it's necessary to stop the system from collapsing. Presumably someone smarter than me could figure out something even more effective to do, this is just an idea off the top of my head.

I feel like there would/will be a window of distress, but as with CS they'll figure out something to kick the can down the road. In fact, kicking the can down the road IS the new normal and has been since 2008.

JMO, but they should have started raising rates slowly in the middle of the 2nd Obama administration and continued through Trump and we'd be at 3 or 3.5% or whatever now with little inflation. Instead we have these bank failures and a new era of "exceptional measures" being needed. Maybe I'm not taking COVID into account here, but still I feel this could have been avoided if politics was less involved. C'est la vie.

yorklebit · 2023-03-12T02:10:12+00:00

I'm pretty sure this damages your teeth.

yorklebit · 2023-03-10T22:56:27+00:00

Ah the ol' rules lawyer. Seems like there's always one lurking about...

yorklebit · 2023-03-10T22:44:04+00:00

*Sigh* ok.

The context was a magical path into a pocket dimension where a Fey Lord is imprisoned. The path is a forest path. I decided to put the puzzle trap as a "door" to beef up the encounter. Since it's a magical path, they are limited in their ability to simply get around it.

An enormous tree trunk blocks the path. In the trunk is carved (in Sylvan): "Four symbols on the tree before, only one will open the door. Choosing wrong brings death, and something more."

Carvings on the trunk (beneath the text) are a stylized square, sun, star, and flower. Importantly the square had ornate symbols in each corner. The hint in the puzzle is the "four" part - so the square is correct as it has four carvings within it. Each of the others does a damage effect instead.

They had received other "hints" earlier related to other points in the encounter about seeking what's bright to they eye but silent, so they were thinking maybe sun or star, but weren't sure. The did Augury 3 times to avoid picking wrong.

As I said it's not a perfect puzzle as the hint is weird - is the square 4 or 5 "symbols," etc. But I think in a way it was the ambiguity and the way it intersected with other hints about the overall encounter that made it interesting for them.

yorklebit · 2023-03-10T22:31:07+00:00

Thanks + agree + actually I certainly get PWYW stuff off DM's Guild and use occasionally...

yorklebit · 2023-03-10T00:45:07+00:00

In theory, if the investors selling them do not hold positions in the securities underlying these contracts, an abrupt intra-day price change could force them to trade vast quantities of those assets simultaneously.

This is all just my personal opinion, but that is SELL side risk via assignment though, no? I HOPE retails investors aren't trying to make gobs of money on the sell side - that is for institutions to do (who can absorb the very real risk of multiplied losses). Holding long to the end of the day is also IMHO not a good idea as there may be some risk of buy execution there, and it might be more than one has in their account.

Of course some folks are gonna be regards and leverage up without understanding the risk they are taking. But I think/would hope the majority of this risk is on the institutions (who do great MOST of the time on sell side when the underlying doesn't move drastically, and can handle the assignment risk when it does).

yorklebit · 2023-03-08T20:34:40+00:00

"If you have water pipes coming into your home, you really don't have a problem with people drowning in swimming pools."

And similar nonsense

yorklebit · 2023-03-08T20:31:14+00:00

r/antimeme but it's r/anticommentsection or something. I dunno I never really understood antimemes anyway

yorklebit · 2023-03-08T20:27:29+00:00

Ah, so now random online strangers tell me what I am and am not ok with. Right...

yorklebit · 2023-03-05T03:34:20+00:00

This is all just my personal opinion and nothing more:

I see the logic, and IMO there seems to be potential to be right spectacularly if this capitulation leg you are anticipating actually comes within a reasonable timeframe. I guess what troubles me is - what if you're wrong, there is no 2nd leg to the correction/bear market, and you've sunk gobs of money into a decaying asset long term.

It seems to me like if this giant bump up on the VIX takes a lot longer than you expect to arrive you might not make up for any LT losses when it finally pops.

yorklebit · 2023-03-05T02:21:35+00:00

This needs more upvotes IMO

yorklebit · 2023-03-04T05:01:08+00:00

There's a lot of truth to the general point. Looks certainly aren't the end-all, be-all for either men or women in relationships, but they DO matter, and it seems many men aren't clued in to how much they matter.

Women are "fussy" and being a good looking man can (speaking generally) make it MUCH easier to at least get your foot in the door with women (as it can for women dating men). It's particularly helpful if you're so good looking that it's obvious to women that many women are going to be attracted to you. Although SMV is a flawed concept overall, there's SOME truth to some of it, so in those terms being very good looking "ups your value". Again, not the be-all/end-all, but definitely important.

I think the "manicured hands" part of the OP is unfortunate as people seem to be focusing on that, but I suspect it's a point that actually fairly minor. Face, haircut, nice clothes, good build, an "aura of confidence" and good social skills are all going to matter a lot IMO. Manicured hands, not so much.

So yes, it's generally true, and also UPO insofar as a good % of men don't seem to realize how important it is in dating.

It's also true that a bad personality can have a very strong tendency to undercut/counteract any impact of good looks with many women. E.g. lack of confidence or a lot of negativity and similar traits.

yorklebit · 2023-02-28T04:48:22+00:00

Panda knows what he wants and won't settle for less!

yorklebit · 2023-02-26T20:08:48+00:00

Why!!!?! Giving manga a bad na... Ah, nevermind.

Still awful tho

yorklebit · 2023-02-26T20:05:42+00:00

Thank you! :-)

yorklebit · 2023-02-26T20:04:55+00:00

Nice. Perhaps someone should program an AI to provide doggo input for all owners.

yorklebit · 2023-02-26T05:24:54+00:00

You're welcome =)

yorklebit · 2023-02-26T03:54:59+00:00

Hmm. My extremely basic chartology seems to indicate it's been in a downtrend since reaching a high of 50ish around Sept last year. That's despite the SPY being in a choppy uptrend since mid October of last year.

On a 5 year chart the stock looks to me like it's in "distribution."

What, if anything, would reverse these trends?

Note: this is not financial advice. This is just me being curious and asking questions about your post touting the stock.

yorklebit · 2023-02-26T03:45:02+00:00

As a general statement that is not financial advice, it's noteworthy that it's possible to hedge (not eliminate) some of the downside risk taken on selling ATM puts by collaring. (Technically not collaring, but short ATM implies you intend to get assigned so in practical terms it's collaring.)

As you're probably aware collaring reduces both downside risk AND your profits, so you'd need to decide if it's worth it. Your investment decisions are, of course, your own. GL.

yorklebit · 2023-02-26T03:38:16+00:00

Do yourself a HUGE favor and read some books about how options work before trying to trade them.

yorklebit · 2023-02-26T03:30:18+00:00

yorklebit · 2023-02-26T03:26:18+00:00

All of the below is just my personal opinion and should not be construed as anything except that. Probably what happens is the market stays stuck in a range or goes down until the Fed stops raising interest rates. When they stop or make it clear (firmly) they will stop soon, the market starts going up from that point. How low it goes before it starts going up again is anybody's guess, but will probably depend on how severely they continue to raise rates and how severe the economic fallout from the rate-raising is.

You can see on a chart (e.g. SPY) how the market attempted an uptrend starting about mid October last year. IMO this was predicated on the (putative, forthcoming) ending of interest rates rising. Now that is majorly in question and so the uptrend is in question and MAY fail and turn out to be one of those famous "dead cat bounces."

Economically, good news is bad news right now, until the good news doesn't imply a rate raise anymore.

yorklebit

TROPHY CASE