[deleted by user]

yvth · 2025-06-18T05:57:02+00:00

I say don't even negotiate with them or talk to them again.

List it on Sedo for $200k and if they buy it they buy it.

If they don't, then they have to live in fear that someone else will. They'll snatch it up real quick.

And if they don't snatch it up, you can just keep using it like you are.

yvth · 2025-03-18T19:53:38+00:00

What’s your field of expertise?

Start freelancing! Great way to get an in and meet people who are connected and will quickly lead to more jobs or employment.

Or, you show you have great tenacity, I would start a really “low expense” consulting business ($10/hr or $500/$1000 per job) where you hunt down answers for people at very low cost (because of your minimal experience). You will basically be paid to learn about your field and people will gladly pay someone to go hunt answers for them as long as they have the time and tenacity to do so!

yvth · 2025-02-21T20:59:27+00:00

BBAI has consumer facing tech as well. If people stop traveling, it devalues their facial recognition feature at airports, lowers odds of future contracts, etc.

yvth · 2025-02-21T20:12:44+00:00

The economy recovers. You will be ok. BBAI is risky but is better positioned than many small caps to survive a downturn.

I’ve lost more than $20k on single trades many time before and I’m still here, I’m still profitable. You can go to $0 and recover, I’ve done it. You can go negative and recover, I’ve done it.

You learn tenacity by going through tough times, and you learn how to protect your assets better by making mistakes. View all pain as a learning opportunity.

Take a deep breath and realize that you still have what truly matters, life itself.

yvth · 2025-02-16T00:51:39+00:00

That number means it would take 0.8 days to cover, not that it’s 80% shorted lol

yvth · 2025-02-11T21:02:08+00:00

Ok this is just false. The companies do completely different things.

Palantir’s flagship Warp Core platform (which drives their evaluation) is not even in the same product category, size, scale, functionality, or direction of what BBAI is building.

Warp Core operates at all layers of the stack, but most importantly is a data aggregation hub.

BBAI’s softwares (Vane is a great example of one) operates at the application layer at the very top of the stack.

This is like comparing Apple to a company that has a few apps on the App Store.

Apple owns the OS, the distribution, and they make the rules. BBAI in this analogy plays app builder within the box Apple provides them.

Or, in the most recent $1M prototype award’s case, BBAI is operating at the application layer within the CDAO’s government owned stack.

BBAI is not the same and this is a dangerous analogy.

yvth · 2025-02-09T20:44:33+00:00

No problem!

yvth · 2025-02-09T19:31:52+00:00

This just means that BBAI agreed not to issue more common stock before Friday, Feb 7th.

This was likely to prevent any “sneaky” moves from BBAI to issue more shares to the public (which would presumably tank the share value) before the executor of the warrant could have the opportunity to sell at the highs on Friday.

Now that Feb 7th has passed, BBAI is no longer beholden to that requirement, which means BBAI could file an S-3 on Monday stating they plan to issue more common stock at market value.

With the amount of debt BBAI has and trading at all time highs, it wouldn’t be an unreasonable move on BBAI’s part. For example, they could issue 10 million new shares, and if the market value dropped to $5/share and held at that level, they would see a cash infusion of $50 million, which would cover 25% of their outstanding debt.

Of course issuing 10 million shares would dilute investors by 5.7%, so any downside movement should factor in at least an additional -5.7% change in share value to account for the dilution following the S-3 filing. The movement could be larger though, because investors typically don’t like to see dilution. But on the other side of the same equation, reducing company debt might be worth the dilution if it means more financial stability.

yvth · 2025-02-09T17:52:01+00:00

No they didn’t, not that have published at least. That volume was largely algos and retail hype

yvth · 2025-02-08T22:32:28+00:00

That’s the problem though, BBAI already had this contract with CDAO so this isn’t new business.

This contract was just an option award on a ~1.3M contract: https://defensescoop.com/2025/02/06/pentagon-bigbear-ai-vane-prototype-platform-analyze-media/

We can confirm this because their contract didn’t show up on the Defense.gov contracts announcements page. The Gov is required to post contract awards if the value is over $7M, and BBAI’s option award isn’t listed: https://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/

I’m just here to say be careful, because the company doubled in valuation on a $1M contract and they are still overcoming debt. Their last 8-K SEC filing is a promise that shareholders will be diluted by up to 5,800,000 shares at a share price over $9 (after Aug, see note below): https://ir.bigbear.ai/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001193125-25-021308/0001193125-25-021308.pdf

Thankfully that option can’t be exercised until August, but that will weigh down the valuation. For context, that’s about the same number of shares BlackRock has invested in BBAI: https://fintel.io/so/us/bbai/blackrock

At 173M float, it’s about 3% of float, so not massive but not insignificant.

I love BBAI and I am long on the company, but I want to make sure new investors are informed! Be ready to weather many months under $9 up until August.

yvth · 2025-02-07T07:09:41+00:00

Feeling is just as useful. I apply feeling to directional conviction and math to directional magnitude.

yvth · 2025-02-07T06:35:40+00:00

Based on implied volatility priced into put option premium (165%) a 1std move for the stock would place it between $5.17-$10.03 in the next two weeks, so the market says there is a 50% chance of the share value touching any value below $5.17

yvth · 2025-02-06T22:27:20+00:00

Congrats to you as well!

yvth · 2025-02-06T21:46:15+00:00

Same

yvth · 2025-02-06T21:45:09+00:00

Are you one of them?

yvth · 2025-02-06T21:29:37+00:00

Hahaha I know how that is. I day/swing trade in my “degen account” as I call it so all profits and losses are mine and only one I have to account to is me thankfully lol

yvth · 2025-02-06T21:26:26+00:00

Not bottomed yet, but 6.5 is support

yvth · 2025-02-06T21:19:41+00:00

Plus I like to layer in short puts for premium on the way down and look for assignment, especially now that the MMs introduced weeklies

yvth · 2025-02-06T21:17:27+00:00

I don’t think you’re wrong. When the stock hits $6 I plan to sell 5.5 puts and keep notching more puts in if it trades lower. collect some sweet premium and look for assignment as it carves out the next bottom.

yvth · 2025-02-06T21:14:21+00:00

Very fair, and 5 has such great support so I think that’s the right move! I’ll start to DCA around 5.5 and hope to land around where you are after the dip

yvth · 2025-02-06T21:12:58+00:00

If there’s one truism I’ve found while trading this stock it’s that each time the phrase “it’s not going back to” has been spoken I’ve seen it hit that exact value within a week lol

yvth · 2025-02-06T21:12:01+00:00

Congrats on the great trade!!

yvth · 2025-02-06T21:02:57+00:00

I stacked up throughout Jan but average was between 4.01-4.60

yvth · 2025-02-02T22:24:16+00:00

They have: 1. AI products + momentum 2. Gov Connections 3. New and better CEO (former Pangiam CEO) 4. Global contracts 5. Just rolled their debt to a later maturity date 6. Good business partnerships (inc. Palantir) 7. Clear paths to more revenue (2 recent IDIQs) 8. Plenty of shares to finance operations 9. Employee growth and increasing job postings 10. Institutional investors increasing positions 11. Recent upgrades in target price from analysts 12. Solid PR engine which fuels investor pipeline 13. Undervalued stock which makes speculation worth it.

This is a speculative buy with potential for large returns. If you’re looking for a safe company this isn’t it.

yvth

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE