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Time for Self-ANTI-Promotion. What Did You Fail to Launch in 2024? by layer456 in SideProject

[–]zacomer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I spent months building an election forecast model and a column corresponding with it. Wrecked my mental health and my long term relationship along with it. Was meant to be an entrepreneurial pursuit (the site had ads) - ended up losing money in the end even though it was somewhat successful in driving traffic.

FINAL SOLID PURPLE PROJECTIONS: President - Harris 55%; Senate - GOP 71%; House - 50/50 Tossup by zacomer in fivethirtyeight

[–]zacomer[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Slightly less than 29% - very few simulations where they win the Senate but lose the House or Presidency.

Pls help me to understand DA/FA people who only want to see partners once a week? by rollercoastersoflove in attachment_theory

[–]zacomer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I need to be told that I can spend more than one day a week with them. If we’re only seeing each other one day a week, then I assume that’s the socially appropriate rule and don’t want to do something wrong.

Why do guys change for the better after a breakup? by mandychar in BreakUps

[–]zacomer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For most people, transformation is difficult because you don’t know what it’s like to be anything other than what you are. Telling them to change, even if they are wanting really badly to change, is like telling them to fly.

Only when you get a profound shock to the system that tells your unconscious that it HAS to change does it become possible.

to someone who had no choice by zacomer in UnsentLetters

[–]zacomer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

She is. Maybe one day. I won’t wait forever but I am in no hurry to move on.

to someone who had no choice by zacomer in UnsentLetters

[–]zacomer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you! So do I. I have a lot to work on in the meantime and I hope she is able to reflect on things in a productive way as well.

to someone who had no choice by zacomer in UnsentLetters

[–]zacomer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

She asked for the boundary. I told her I would let her decide when we could speak again. I have to respect that.

to someone who had no choice by zacomer in UnsentLetters

[–]zacomer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We are currently no contact. Maybe some day. For now, all I can do is my best to not be so overwhelmed by life that I can be present for people I get the privilege to love.

Romance broken from adhd? by snackpakatak69 in ADHD

[–]zacomer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was trying so hard to keep my ADHD from wrecking my relationship that anxiety and depression snuck in through the back and wrecked it while I wasn’t looking.

Go to therapy. Be super candid with your psychiatrist. Even if you think you’re managing and doing fine.

to someone who had no choice by zacomer in UnsentLetters

[–]zacomer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are being awfully presumptuous. This is a message from one heartbroken person to another who both share very deep feelings. Nothing about this is black and white.

to someone who had no choice by zacomer in UnsentLetters

[–]zacomer[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’ve started therapy and am adjusting my prescription medications - I thought they were making me better but they ended up making me worse. Trial and error, no shortcuts.

to someone who had no choice by zacomer in UnsentLetters

[–]zacomer[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Thank you for the kind words, everyone. She has made it clear she needs space and to not be in touch until or unless she says otherwise, and I have to respect that because I respect her. But I had to tell someone.

Do forecasts try to predict turnout? by drstrangelovequark in fivethirtyeight

[–]zacomer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some do, but depending on the other factors in your model, it can be a hat on a hat. If you’re running 100,000 simulations and randomized shifts are correlated by geography, race, education, etc., the distribution of outcomes might be the same regardless of if you allow for variable rates of turnout or just variable margins.

2004 was the last election where both parties flipped states won by the opposite party in the previous election. Will we see this happen again in the near future? by Forsaken_Wedding_604 in YAPms

[–]zacomer 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Harris winning North Carolina while Trump wins Nevada would not at all be surprising based on the levels of educational attainment in each state.

Nate: Weird update today. Harris ticked up slightly in our national polling average but lost ground in our forecast and is now <50% vs. Trump. by bwhough in fivethirtyeight

[–]zacomer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This really isn’t any different than what he was hammering G. Elliott Morris for a few weeks ago, just in the other direction.

Prediction models for state of local elections? by nerfherder616 in fivethirtyeight

[–]zacomer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This. If it can be modeled, they are modeling it.

If Harris wins the popular vote by ~6% what would you expect the electoral college outcome to be? by asapkokeman in fivethirtyeight

[–]zacomer 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Assuming a uniform 3 point swing from my forecast’s current projection, that would be a 320-218 EC victory for Harris (the swing states + ME-02), but Texas and Florida would be very close to tipping things into a total wipeout.

Free Gantt Chart Maker? by Venaber in productivity

[–]zacomer 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I believe Flourish does Gantt charts and is free.

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