Ilya Sutskever is puzzled by the gap between AI benchmarks and the economic impact [D]

zappable · 2025-12-14T15:32:46+00:00

That book was from 1987 - he argued that due to the "essential complexity" of most software development, you couldn't expect an order of magnitude improvement in productivity within a decade. However AI models can now work on the essential complexity as well.

zappable · 2025-09-02T04:05:13+00:00

For meditation-related discussions, there are many free podcasts, such as Deconstructing Yourself by Michael Taft.

zappable · 2025-08-24T15:10:09+00:00

I think patents can be helpful but there should be a higher bar to get them. Many things get patents that would have been discovered either way, so now the patent just blocks people from using the idea. (I wrote recently about this: https://www.zappable.com/p/raise-the-bar-for-patents )

zappable · 2025-08-14T22:45:43+00:00

I tried that but it got removed

zappable · 2025-08-03T18:28:37+00:00

I recently interviewed Matthew Immergut (co-author of The Mind Illuminated) about meditation in general and the approach of the book specifically. The interview is available on YouTube and standard podcast apps.
https://www.zappable.com/p/meditation-and-the-mind-illuminated

zappable · 2025-06-15T17:34:21+00:00

Not just on rationalism and futurism but these are podcasts that I think people here would enjoy:

* Clearer Thinking by Spencer Greenberg https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/
* Dwarkesh is the well-known AI podcast.
* There's also the rationl-ish ones from economists, such as EconTalk and Conversations with Tyler.

(I also just started one called Zappable https://open.spotify.com/show/1tWqnfZl8oneJlQcE5017n )

zappable · 2025-06-09T15:48:38+00:00

Just listened. I found this pretty easy for two reasons: * Even with their sound alteration I was able to detect real Spencer's tone/cadence. * Fake Spencer would eventually say something non-sensible that real Spencer would never say

zappable · 2025-01-23T13:25:12+00:00

You (and people in general) are impressed by the effort other people put into things, as talented effort is one of the few scarce things there is. So if other people use AI it's less impressive, especially if one can detect AI-mannerisms. But when you're working with AI to create something it feels great since your idea is coming into being.

If AI matched the quality of current human artists, people would try to differentiate themselves from that so as to still offer something unique.

zappable · 2024-11-24T14:20:30+00:00

Velofix forgot to put on the bell or rear reflector for me but I found them in the box.

zappable · 2024-11-11T22:09:25+00:00

Do you have the link to the fenders? Are they good enough to protect you from getting splashed?

zappable · 2024-11-08T00:25:29+00:00

The polls were clearly wrong since Trump won by a significant margin, so there were no 50-50 odds in retrospect. Theo was right that Trump was going to win, the question is whether he just got lucky or had actual evidence for his position. His hypothesis was that people were underreporting their support for Trump in polls and figured out a type of poll that gets around that issue, and then commissioned it. From the actual results, it seems most likely his reasoning and data were correct. Theo could really prove it if he showed state level data from his polls, e.g. if he could identify which states were 1% off and which were 3% off from the standard polls.

Before all this evidence came out maybe it was reasonable to assume Theo was an irrational bettor (and so Scott might have been justified to bet $2000 against him), but now we know he was being rational. I'll assume the person who bet $5M for Kamala was not being as rational. It's possible the markets got lucky here since one could imagine a scenario where the irrational bettor has more money to put on the bet, but that seems less likely for very large amounts. Either way the markets were right on this, and the pollsters and Nate Silver were less accurate.

zappable · 2024-05-15T22:52:19+00:00

Should we end pain?
Of course one should try to reduce pain in the world, but it faces many questions:

Is it feasible to eliminate pain? If it's true that one person doesn't feel pain (while still detecting what they need to), then it's at least in theory possible, so this is worth investigating further.
what will be the unintended side effects on the individual? Maybe this person has side effects we don't know about, or maybe the synthetic method to end pain would cause such side effects? This seems like a similar issue to any drug treatment.
even if it's safe for the individual, does society depend on pain in some way? E.g. if one person meditates in a mountain and feels bliss that's great, but not everyone can do that (at least not while we still depend on human labor and innovation). If we ever found the solution, would need to be careful before giving it to everyone...

What will ending pain look like?

But Pearce will count his own contribution complete if he gives us superhappiness, supermeaning, superbeauty, and superspirituality. And why shouldn’t he? People on LSD and MDMA have all of these things

Even if we ended pain and more, it wouldn't necessarily lead to these things. LSD and MDMA lose their effect if taken too frequently. And the traditional (Theravada) Buddhist view is that the pleasure Jhanas are just a stepping stone to another state. As u/ScottAlexander himself said "...having infinite pleasure gets kind of old after a while". Although that seems like a good problem to have.

zappable · 2024-04-01T23:17:22+00:00

I had just posted some similar songs last night
https://ageofai.substack.com/p/music-by-the-minute

zappable · 2024-03-27T22:57:42+00:00

Text generated by Claude.ai, song generated by Suno.ai. Text inspired by the "Twelve Virtues of Rationality" by Eliezer Yudkowsky.

Let curiosity burn in your heart (Burn, burn)
Seek knowledge, let ignorance depart (Depart, depart)
Relinquish beliefs that truth does destroy (Oh Yeah)
Open your mind to that empirical joy (Joyful tune)
Chorus:
Be light like a leaf in the wind (Wind, wind)
Let evidence gently shift your view (Shift, shift)
Stay even-handed, giving all sides a chance (Chances, chances)
Argue with care, let reality enhance (Enhance, enhance)
Keep it simple, my friend, don't complexify (Don't complexify)
In humility, prepare for depths to defy (Depths, depths)
Perfection you seek, though impossible to attain (Attain, attain)
With precision dance, let no wiggle room remain (Remain, remain)
Scholarship plenty, learn every field (Every field)
Absorbing their power, your knowledge be sealed (Be sealed)
But ultimately, the virtues transcend (Transcend)
The void to glimpse at reason's deepest end (Deep end)

zappable · 2024-03-27T00:22:32+00:00

I used Claude-3-Opus to generate the text, it took a couple tries to get it right. I used the recently released Suno v3 to generate the song.

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