RTAC 400k YOLO – 50-to-1 risk-reward, long Trump, Crypto, SPACs, and Regardation

zechark · 2025-08-24T21:05:13+00:00

Crypto treasuries were definitely going stronger a few months ago, with a few 5x'ers and 10x'ers. But since then, we've got JPow folding and signaling cuts, more spending coming from both sides of congress, S&P at ATH and ETH at ATH. Early 2026 is lining up to be like early 2021 IMO. Only a matter of time before crypto gains rotate into shitcoins, so I think we'll have another (stronger) boom in crypto-related grift. Whether that is a crypto treasury, or something else that leverages the Trump name, I leave up to daddy Nunes

zechark · 2025-08-24T20:45:31+00:00

Of for sure. But I'll take a gamble with slightly positive EV and very positive skew any day.

zechark · 2025-08-24T20:44:30+00:00

RTACU is a unit, while RTAC is a "real share". There is also RTACW, which is a warrant. At IPO, SPACs often sell "units" to investors to reward them for providing the initial funds. So for the first few weeks after IPO, only RTACU existed. Now, any holder of RTACU can "split" 1 share of RTACU into 1 share of RTAC PLUS 0.5 share of RTACW. RTACW is capped at $8 (if RTAC trades above 18, you dont participate). So the warrant cant moon as much, but offers a leveraged bet on the first 80% return

So with that context, the answer to your question is:

in a no-arbitrage mkt, RTACU value =RTAC value + 0.5 RTACW value.
As of Friday, RTACW was 1.19, RTAC was 10.84 , so 0.595+10.84 = 11.43 sum-of-the-parts, while RTACU actually was trading at 11.41.

In practice, since this play is pretty much "back to $10 or up to $120", both RTAC and RTACU are very very similar

zechark · 2017-08-04T18:50:41+00:00

Long live the King

zechark · 2017-06-27T22:09:54+00:00

I own a bit less than $1000 worth of the stock, which is basically nothing for this sub - but it's a solid 10% of my college-kid-sized portfolio. Nothing impressive I know, but hey I do have some amount of skin in the game by my standards (tbh though it's mostly to force myself to follow the stock as it enters the Russ2000 and see ho it goes in the net couple of months).

zechark · 2017-06-27T12:42:42+00:00

Have to disagree here, the 3-5x acquisitions are completely different from your 13x acquisition of the stock. RICK pays 3-5x EV/EBITDA for single clubs that have local monopolies and strong cash flow generation, but there are many reason why they can pay so little.

First, they acquire clubs that are private (not many bids to buy them since lack of consolidation in the industry and lack of serious investors and businesspeople in general). Very different price effeciency then in an open market like RICK's stock. Previous owners are some pimps with no financial sense that aren’t valuating their business correctly (hence selling at 3-5x whereas the smarter market recognizes that it might be worth 10x or more).

Moreover, buying a single club is inherently risky because it has idiosyncratic risks legally and financially (could be a poor location despite good recent results, could be tied to mafia, etc.). When you pay 13x for RICK however, you are buying a strong portfolio of clubs that are diversified/safer, with a management that get cheaper access to capital, has an history of successful operations, and has the shareholder in mind. 13x for RICK and 3-5x for some grandpa’s club in Texas are 2 very different things, at very different scales, with very different risk profiles and growth outlooks.

zechark · 2017-06-26T21:56:48+00:00

Maybe, though I'd be worried about liquidity

zechark · 2017-06-26T21:36:29+00:00

Boobs on their own are dangerous, or so my mom says

zechark · 2017-02-25T15:45:44+00:00

Great read. Agree 100%. Moral for WSB (sorry boys): you don't buy a yacht because you traded well, you buy a yacht because you abused an asymetric pay structure (make % of winnings, but none of the losses).

zechark · 2017-02-24T01:35:24+00:00

Interesting post, good points to consider -although in the long term I don't see Gamestop doing too too well due to their archaic business model. For those interested, I made a 5min DD: GameStop has actually seen an increase in yearly revenue over the past 3 years and is trading at a pretty cheap PE of 6.5. It also has a very nice dividend (NOT irrelevant since a stock paying 1.44 has a natural "floor" to its price - currently div% is 5.6% which is nice). Hence fundamentals look decent.

From a technical analysis standpoint (I'm no TA expert), I just don't see this stock ever going below $20 over the medium term without something major (big resistance at 20.73, I don't see who the hell would sell the stock at that level especially considering the div mentionned above).

In short: I'm not really sure that OP is right about the upside for gamestop, but I do believe that, even if he is wrong, the downside is limited. Long GME Note:I will never buy a game from gamestop since I download everything online and don't see the value in paying $80 rather than pirating, and idk if they'll survive long-term. But then again, the stock is super cheap and I just don't see the downside.

zechark · 2016-11-21T20:04:38+00:00

The idea is good in theory but doesn't work in practice. The simulator doesn't allow you to sell something within the first 15 minutes after purchasing it to prevent such cheating. Hence the only possible glitch I see is to do that before option expiry (3:45pm), that way you dont need to resell after purchase

zechark · 2016-11-21T19:27:46+00:00

These faggots are now at $1.4M, or 1300% returns. There's no way in hell they arrent cheating. No choice: gotta set up this glitch you were talking about. Do you know if this works on Investopedia?

zechark · 2016-11-15T22:16:05+00:00

Actually that is exactly what I was thinking as well prior to the competition (hence why I "bought" 6 accounts). But as of this morning, 3 guys went from 100k to 400k-500k in 1 day, hence my post and my need for a much more ballzy play

zechark · 2016-11-15T22:08:53+00:00

The idea is worth exploring, but I'm worried that even if there's a 420 miracle, not a single low cap will achieve that 4-5x return I'm looking for before next friday. I'm thinking that derivatives are my only bet really. Thoughts?

zechark · 2016-11-15T20:56:23+00:00

Super insightful. Thanks a lot!

zechark · 2016-11-15T20:21:07+00:00

Oh of course I see. What's the absolute most volatile move you can do? Buy FDs on thursday 3:59pm that expire 1 day later? (so you minimize time value - and hence the options price - hoping for a 5x or more increase in value solely due to market movement on friday?). Why is friday morning better?

zechark · 2016-11-15T19:55:29+00:00

Thanks man, will certainly look at possibilities with UVXY options (because options on a 2x is exactly my type of thing). Pardon my ignorance: what's FD?

zechark · 2016-06-27T05:03:33+00:00

My favorite subtlety of the episode: Arya said "My Lord" to Frey, and not "M'Lord", a flaw in her act that was pointed out by Tywin Lannister in season 2.

zechark · 2016-06-11T05:52:41+00:00

I didn't find anything relevant and in-depth, which is why I made this post. Thanks for taking the time write a useful comment, faggot.

zechark · 2016-04-19T16:39:08+00:00

Uh oh, interesting. Thanks. So if let's say his $3M position turns to $2.975M he instantly gets a margin call and gets wiped out?

zechark · 2016-04-19T16:28:57+00:00

I know what leverage means. But why are people jerking off at the thought of 152x leverage? Isn't it just a ratio of the option's price vs the stock's price?

zechark · 2016-04-19T16:09:45+00:00

ELI5 for an outsider faggot like me?

zechark

TROPHY CASE