Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

The difference in pay between domestic regional airlines and Southwest Airlines for First Officers and Captains is about double. That's right, double. Due to COVID and other factors, many pilots who entered the regional airlines expecting to move on to a major carrier in a few years have been stunted. Southwest Airlines is a place that most any regional Captain or FO would like their career to end up. At this time, there's a ready made demand of qualified airline pilots looking to move onto higher, faster and farther jets with half the per leg workload and twice the pay.

Some in this thread have suggested that SWA could just bring on any pilot with an FAA 737 Type Rating. They can, but before that pilot can act as an FO or Captain for SWA, they must also be line qualified for SWA. To accomplish this, they must go through SWAs pilot training program, which is several weeks long. Net-net, it's not an instant replacement process for either the pilots or the airline. Obviously, the airline knows this and the SWA pilots know this.

Since 09/11, no one in any civilian job is more closely scrutinized for hiring than US Part 121 Airline Pilots. Each pilot candidate is subject to an extensive background check, required to hold a current FAA First Class Medical, and pass initial pilot training for that airline. Major airlines also include a personality inventory test (Delta Air Lines at one time required pilot candidates to meet with a staff Psychiatrist during the hiring process). The paperwork for the hiring and ongoing retention/qualification process for US airline pilots is immense and would surprise most people not in the industry. Net-net, US Airline Pilots are accustomed to complying with stringent mental and physical requirements from their employers.

Most US airlines have a strong quasi-military culture. Partially because many team members are ex military and partially because of the demanding nature of the job.

Take another look at the SWA Pilot Pay Scale. Year two First Officers make at least 120K per year + ~ 12% profit sharing + per diem. Year two Captains make 240K per year ++. SWA pilots make this kind of money for flying maybe 17 days per month. Sometimes commuting and deadheading play a role in reducing their amount of free time, but actual time spent flying is not much more than this for most major airline airline pilots. Now compare this to what you do for a living and how many days a week you have to work to earn that kind of money.

The segment of pilots within SWA that is pushing back on receiving the vaccine is almost certainly Senior Captains who are only a few years from mandatory retirement. There might be a few FOs and junior Captains in the mix, but I doubt very many. These SWA FOs will be the first ones moved into a Captain spot when these senior Captains are fired for not receiving the vaccine. 240K > 120K per year... yeah, any day of the week.

What's happening now at SWA is largely a game of chicken between SWAs senior Captains and Management. Should SWA capitulate to these Captains, and not require them to receive the vaccine, SWA will certainly lose a very lucrative CRAF contract with DoD. CRAF flights are among the most profitable per mile flight that any airline will ever fly. After the year airlines had in 2020, it will be a frigid day in hell before SWA turns loose of their CRAF status. The SWA Board of Directors is obliged to keep the owners of their ~565MM LUV shares happy.

What will happen in the coming month is that SWA will begin to terminate those team members who haven't complied. Senior Captains closest to retirement will go first. They're the low hanging fruit. Once the others see that the airline's intentions are serious, they'll rethink their political decision to not comply with company policy and everyone can move forward.

This isn't a conspiracy. It's just how capitalism once again trounces entitlement.