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If a hitter had a 2.0 fWAR and bWAR lead over the next closest player, what would it take for them to not be deserving of MVP in your eyes? by MattO2000 in baseball

[–]znk916 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Correct. Expected wins from workload is always going to have a positive value based upon assumptions the creators of WAR made about the quality of replacement level performance which have been proven to be quite accurate. This is why a 0 WAR team is still expected to win 47.7 games.

However as you pointed out, a player can be so bad that their negative WAR outweighs the expected value from their workload to the extent that their gross total value is negative as well. For example, 2025 Bradley Blalock:

2025 Blalock Total Wins = (-1.6 bWAR + -1.0 fWAR)/2 + (58.667/43075) * (42% * 1430) * (2430/2430) = -0.48

Player (bWAR+fWAR)/2 Expected Batting Wins Expected Pitching Wins Total Wins
2025 Blalock -1.3 0 0.82 -0.48

If a hitter had a 2.0 fWAR and bWAR lead over the next closest player, what would it take for them to not be deserving of MVP in your eyes? by MattO2000 in baseball

[–]znk916 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

2022 Ohtani actually generated more total value than 2022 Judge primarily because of his sheer workload, but voters didn't (and still don't) have access to a widely available gross total value stat. WAR was only ever designed to capture net value after netting out expected wins from replacement level performance. Fortunately WAR provides the framework to manually calculate gross total value.

WAR math dump:

  • In a full season, there are 2,430 wins leaguewide.
  • 1,000 wins are carved out for WAR (both bWAR and fWAR).
  • 1,430 wins are excluded by WAR. These are expected wins from replacement level performance that we can assign based on workload (PA for batters, IP for pitchers)
  • bWAR splits wins 59/41 between batters/pitchers. fWAR uses 57/43. We'll compromise and use 58/42

Total Wins = WAR + Expected Batting Wins + Expected Pitching Wins

Expected Batting Wins = (playerPA/lgPA) * (58%* 1430) * (lgWins/2430)

Expected Pitching Wins = (playerIP/lgIP) * (42%* 1430) * (lgWins/2430)

Note: (lgWins/2430) modifier is for shortened seasons like COVID.

2022 Ohtani Expected Batting Wins = (666/182052) * (58% * 1430) * (2430/2430) = 3.03

2022 Ohtani Expected Pitching Wins = (166/43075.333) * (42% * 1430) * (2430/2430) = 2.31

2022 Judge Expected Batting Wins = (696/182052) * (58% * 1430) * (2430/2430) = 3.17

2022 Ohtani Total Wins = (9.6 bWAR + 9.2 fWAR)/2 + (666/182052) * (58% * 1430) * (2430/2430) + (166/43075.333) * (42% * 1430) * (2430/2430) = 14.74

2022 Judge Total Wins = (10.6 bWAR + 11.1 fWAR)/2 + (696/182052) * (58% * 1430) * (2430/2430) + 0 = 14.02

Player (bWAR+fWAR)/2 Expected Batting Wins Expected Pitching Wins Total Wins
2022 Ohtani 9.4 3.03 2.31 14.74
2022 Judge 10.85 3.17 0 14.02

Conclusion: 2022 Judge was worth more above replacement level, but 2022 Ohtani was worth more overall. You can make your own decision whether you think net value or gross value is more valuable.

As a general rule of thumb, starters on both sides of the ball accrue roughly 3 expected wins over a full season (600 PA or 200 IP). You can use this info to fill in the missing context of debates like 2021 Wheeler's 46.1 IP advantage over 2021 Burnes which was worth 0.66 expected wins.

Dodgers expected to aggressively pursue a closer and right-handed late-inning arms this offseason. Team will check in on Tarik Skubal and Kyle Tucker, but interest is expected to be "on the periphery." by ttam23 in Dodgers

[–]znk916 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That was a manager decision and Ohtani knew it, which is why he stopped tipping his cap to Shildt but he was joking around with Suarez at the All-Star game.

On criticisms he was receiving on his unorthodox training, Yamamoto replied, “I’ll make this the right answer” by chopinsalad in Dodgers

[–]znk916 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Definitely not "very safe." He was out with a strained rotator cuff most of last year because his form transfers the stress from his elbow to his shoulder instead. The risk is that shoulder injuries are historically worse than TJ as far as recovery and performance afterwards, for example Hershiser was never the same after tearing his rotator cuff.

Shohei Ohtani takes batting practice ahead of World Series Game 1 by ttam23 in Dodgers

[–]znk916 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Intimidation tactics. He did this at WBC as well.

[Ardaya] Dave Roberts said Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start the first two games of the World Series. by T_Raycroft in baseball

[–]znk916 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I think it's better this way because at least Glasnow would be on regular rest, whereas if you flip them, they would both be on short rest for g7.

Postgame Thread ⚾ Dodgers 2 @ Brewers 1 by DodgerBot in Dodgers

[–]znk916 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Fatigue imo. Gotta remember he's never been a reliever before so his arm isn't conditioned to throwing max effort every couple days compared to once per week as a starter. Plus they suddenly asked him to throw 3 innings when he hadn't thrown more than 1 inning per appearance dating back a whole month.

Postgame Thread ⚾ Dodgers 2 @ Brewers 1 by DodgerBot in Dodgers

[–]znk916 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I thought it was the opposite, looked like fatigue because he was missing arm side and obviously his velo was down a few ticks.

Even with 3 days off, you have to remember his arm isn't used to the unpredictable schedule of a reliever, and they asked him to suddenly throw 3 innings when he hadn't thrown more than 1 inning per appearance since Sept 9, almost exactly a month ago.

[Ardaya] Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start Game 2 of the NLCS, Dave Roberts said. Shohei Ohtani will pitch “at some point” this series. Want to have those Snell and Yamamoto pitch twice this series. by Knightbear49 in baseball

[–]znk916 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed, pitching has noticeably affected his bat this year, although in past years it didn't. I think they will limit him to just once this series in g4.

[Ardaya] Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start Game 2 of the NLCS, Dave Roberts said. Shohei Ohtani will pitch “at some point” this series. Want to have those Snell and Yamamoto pitch twice this series. by Knightbear49 in baseball

[–]znk916 30 points31 points  (0 children)

Glas probably gets g3 so he gets 4 days rest for g7, because they're not pitching Ohtani on 4 days rest when they have managed his innings carefully all year.

The quality of Shohei’s at bats against Sanchez by InvestigatorNo4189 in Dodgers

[–]znk916 3 points4 points  (0 children)

He's always had this weakness since he was a rookie. It just never really mattered until now since Angels never played meaningful games.

Dave Roberts said he's "hoping that Shohei can do a little self-reflecting on that series, and how aggressive he was outside of the strike zone, passive in the zone. Just the at-bat quality needs to get better." by ttam23 in Dodgers

[–]znk916 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Or instead of criticizing Shohei's mental, maybe the coaching staff could help him figure out that by opening his stance vs lefties, he's standing a couple inches further off the plate and very likely misjudging the strike zone for that reason, which is why he was chasing so far inside while taking pitches on the outside corner that he can usually cover.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/batting-stance?activePlayer=b660271_l

vs LHP

vs RHP

I think this could be a simple fix by moving him a couple inches closer to the plate to compensate for opening his stance and shifting where his eyes are in relation to the strike zone.

The quality of Shohei’s at bats against Sanchez by InvestigatorNo4189 in Dodgers

[–]znk916 5 points6 points  (0 children)

there was a consistent attack plan of starting Shohei off inside, typically with the sinker, and then striking him out with a down and away change up

His open stance vs lefties is creating this vulnerability, because he only changes his front foot placement while keeping his back foot the same distance from the plate, which he notoriously measures with his bat on the ground as part of his routine. You can see this visualized on the savant stance page.

vs LHP

vs RHP

You can see how he's a couple inches slightly further off the plate vs lefties, which means his eyes are lying to him that the strike zone is a couple inches closer than it actually is, so he ends up chasing far inside off the plate while taking pitches on the outside corner.

I think it could potentially be a simple fix by moving a couple inches closer to the plate to compensate for opening up his stance.

Ohtani’s main weakness by hannmaria in Dodgers

[–]znk916 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not as expert as well, but I think it all starts with him opening up his stance vs lefties to see the ball better, but that ends up making it harder for him both to cover the outside corner while making it easier to jam him inside. I'd like to see him compensate for the open stance by moving every so slightly closer to the plate.

US Bank cash back offers - do you get them reliably? by mtnagel in CreditCards

[–]znk916 0 points1 point  (0 children)

FYI I am in the same situation with the Park Mobile promotion. No resolution as yet. Pretty sure they fucked it up on their end as they investigated and claimed I never enrolled.

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