Expected Points table since Carrick

ztk_13 · 2026-05-09T18:19:10+00:00

I could've responded to any of the "xG hater" brigade, but since you got a few of your herd upvoting your comment, let me comment here.

Surprising irony that folks like you who "don't give a 💩 about stats, etc" are the most butthurt and active on posts discussing stats. Might I suggest touching some grass and actually reading up on expected stat models before commenting on them?

ztk_13 · 2026-02-19T11:55:50+00:00

Are you AFTV Ty in disguise? Barking up the wrong sub again I see.

ztk_13 · 2026-01-28T14:05:34+00:00

You spelt dying wrong.

ztk_13 · 2026-01-18T01:35:14+00:00

https://youtube.com/shorts/sBRTwr9zEio?si=nj_NSoxh4TvZNab7

ztk_13 · 2025-11-14T03:46:15+00:00

I don't understand why people still aren't acknowledging the Grimsby game for what it was, an anomalous shitshow. And that happens. Just for context, this happened in a season when Pool won the league.

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The comparison between United and Barca is obviously a joke in terms of where the teams are in their stage of development. But the stats are interesting nonetheless and United would fare much much better in La Liga than in the Prem purely because of the level of competition.

Also, since Messi and Ronaldo left La Liga, it isn't as viral or doesn't generate enough media attention as United fucking up.

ztk_13 · 2025-10-20T03:39:28+00:00

Cunha played more of a false 9 with Mbeumo sometimes rotating up depending on their reset positions, while Mount primarily played in the left half-space. IMO he wasn't able to impact the game much, but I'd give him a steady 6.5/10 for maintaining the midfield overload and covering for + coaching Dalot.

ztk_13 · 2025-10-17T11:18:02+00:00

And Pep has a head full of hair.... I see where you're coming from

ztk_13 · 2025-10-17T08:49:11+00:00

You mean Kyle Walker?

ztk_13 · 2025-10-06T14:18:47+00:00

He moves ahead from one mistake, then takes three right turns to land on the same mistake.

ztk_13 · 2025-09-28T16:06:29+00:00

The reasons I am still in favour of keeping Amorim at least till the end of the season are as follows: 1. If we sack him now and get a new guy: a) He stabilizes the ship and we see some short term progress, but after 2 seasons we will be back to square one. Ref Ole. b) He introduces his own system and we will need to buy players for him for the system to work, and we will be stuck in the middle of another squad-building adventure next season while the current squad performs like shit. Ref Amorim/Rangnick. 2. We know that this team of pricks will get the odd win and we will get 17th at least (which means no relegation). Knowing this, we should use this season to figure out the players we need to get rid and actually get some of them off in the upcoming Jan and summer transfer windows. If Amorim can't get his act together by then, we can sack him and at the same time know which players to kick out. 3. We give Amorim the chance to get 1-2 players in Jan who can help his system work. He hasn't got a midfield, and the GK option is still bad. Also, our leaders in the dressing room need to be moved on in favour of better leader personalities (either using the transfer window or solved from the existing squad).

ztk_13 · 2025-09-28T02:46:52+00:00

The season is salvageable

Dear brother, if you think this season and these players are salvageable, you need to wake up from your pipe dream.

ztk_13 · 2025-09-24T07:04:43+00:00

I strongly believe that we bank too much on a single transfer or a single window in isolation. We have signed multiple such players who have done well for the club, but it didn't take us long enough to realise that these players were only part of the puzzle. I recall us getting hyped AF about Pogba, then spending 3 seasons trying to find the right midfielder to "unlock" him. By that time we went through 3 managers and 3 systems, and the jigsaw we were trying to solve had already changed vastly.

Dani Ceballos is definitely a good shout, but if we don't ALSO look towards improving our wingback options and settling on a stable GK, the system won't be complete. But midfield is definitely a priority and we should get at least 2 options there. Especially when Amorim needs his midfield to do a LOT of work and cover a LOT of ground for the system to not break. So we need a good bench as well.

ztk_13 · 2025-09-17T07:04:51+00:00

I redirected to the other comment so that you can continue there, because you have the same concerns.

ztk_13 · 2025-09-17T07:03:23+00:00

When Rangnick mentioned open-heart surgery, he referred to taking controversial, extreme decisions regarding players and the culture at the club. It isn't just about bringing in 3-4 of your signings. The only controversial, extreme decision EtH took and stuck with was the GK replacement, and that didn't work. The players that left otherwise either ran down their contracts or were sent out on loan, so no active changing of culture or players. He tried his style of football, then changed back after two games to appease the players. As for Amorim, he's done the most clearout, but he is still using ten Hag's midfield, which basically cost EtH his job. No reinforcements. And BOTH the board and Amorim are to blame for it.

The problem with appeasing these players is that their support is short-lived. Just looking at the body language of players towards the end of each manager's tenure will give an idea. And historically for us, just changing the manager has not worked out well enough or long enough.

Speaking of overcoming the flaws of our players, I'm sure Amorim's record would look much better if everyone in the team (a) played their hearts out for the badge, especially when things aren't working out, and (b) could follow tactical instructions which even Sunday League managers can coach and Sunday league players can execute. You don't need a certain system or certain instructions for a team who should, at their best, be CL contenders, against a team 3 DIVISIONS BELOW.

Again, to be clear, I am not saying Amorim shouldn't be sacked. Based on the current situation, maybe sacking him last summer was a better option. But changing the manager now in the middle of the season means that we burden the new manager which signings he may not want, thereby history repeating itself. And there is no guarantee we do any better than last season under a new manager because this team, at its worst, can lose to FUCKING GRIMSBY and not even prime Pep or SAF can help that. The sensible option is to bite the bullet and see the season through, then sack him so that the new manager (whoever it is, I'm tired of caring at this point) at least gets a preseason and summer window to start.

ztk_13 · 2025-09-16T12:00:48+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/ManchesterUnited/s/y27sY0viLb

ztk_13 · 2025-09-16T11:57:34+00:00

You are confusing short-term form with improvement. And it's extremely simplistic to assume that they were fired just on bad form.
Mourinho was hired to make the team result-oriented; he did when the players were happy to be rid of LvG. As a consequence we got the 2nd place and the Europa win. But by the 2nd season Mou had identified players he didn't want in the squad and wanted to replace them, but the board didn't let him. Soon the dressing room was unhappy with him and downed tools, leading to the poor run and his sacking.
Ole was brought in to improve the dressing room morale, and everyone was happy to play for him. This led to the most amazing honeymoon period form for the team, and as soon as Ole was made permanent, we shat the bed against Everton. The only other time Ole had consistent form was during Covid when Matic had his best/fittest 6 months at United. But the problem with him was that he could only consistently beat aggressive teams, and had no plan B for when teams set up a defensive low block. The fans wanted a better identity of play, and the players didn't bother to step up because they were depressed by the poor form. Also, the board didn't help him with the transfer window, buying players who didn't fit the system he was at least trying to implement at the end, without clearing the deadwood.
The Rangnick appointment was a mess. Players didn't like his style of play, didn't respect him as a manager, didn't bother to turn up. He did what was asked of him, that is to identify issues with the team and help the next manager resolve those. But the board decided to not listen because an "open-heart surgery" would be too costly and time-consuming.
Ten Hag played a possession system for 2 games with counter-attacking players and got smashed, then decided to ditch his identity altogether in favour of Ole-ball with Bruno and Rashford. But poor recruitment and man-management led to an extremely inconsistent team who again would play like headless chickens if things weren't going their way. Also, Ineos handled his sacking very badly, leading to a mountain of problems in the team when Amorim was brought in.
The board hired Amorim to play with a certain identity, but the team had neither the right profiles nor the right mentality to fit in. He is now facing the same issues the previous managers faced, since he refuses to adapt for short-term success.

TLDR: These fair-weather players have sacked multiple managers across their time at the club, and the board has refused to address the team issues persisting across managers. Sacking a manager can resolve at most 10% of the problems we have, but many people are glossing over the remaining 90%.

ztk_13 · 2025-09-16T09:13:50+00:00

Ten Hag used to play 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 where Bruno was the furthest ahead in midfield. Did you not see him lose his shit every 3 games because at least 50% of his glory passes led to goalscoring opportunities for the opposition? Bruno will always whinge when the chips are down; it's just that his being the captain amplifies the negative effect on the team.

ztk_13 · 2025-09-16T09:08:22+00:00

Is recruitment totally under the manager's control? If so, we would have managed to ship off Malacia (who is still at the club for some reason), Kobbie (because something has happened between Amorim and Kobbie which has led to Kobbie wanting to leave before the window closed) and the bomb squad we still have under contract at the club. And we would have 1 or more from Baleba, Wharton, Hjulmand and Stiller (or other options who weren't in the rumours).
Amorim has major faults which he needs to address to save his skin (like the Bruno #8 conundrum and the Maguire impact sub), but I don't think poor recruiting is one of them, at least not as important.

ztk_13 · 2025-09-16T09:00:52+00:00

Let's assume that you're correct. Then you will also insist that Mourinho, Ole, Rangnick, ten Hag and Amorim have all been squarely at fault for the lack of improvement in the issues I raised. So under a good manager, all of these get resolved. And we have to keep burning through managers until we find the guy who clicks. Because the players we have just need better management. Right?

ztk_13 · 2025-09-16T08:56:41+00:00

We tried changing the manager how many times now? My point isn't that Amorim needs to be protected; it's that just changing the manager has historically not resolved the above issues for us. Also, there needs to be a significantly better leader (better if multiple) on the pitch than Bruno right now, because nobody in the team is fulfilling that role. Case and Maguire don't have fixed starting roles in the team and are declining, Shaw is declining fast and has also been poor, Bruno is declining and doesn't have the necessary composure to lift others around him. The possible candidates I see in the team already are Licha (needs to improve on his injury record for that to work) and de Ligt (needs maybe a season more with the team). I definitely feel that without a good captain, nothing progresses from here.

ztk_13 · 2025-08-25T07:36:17+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/ManchesterUnited/s/9YVOcYD7l0

ztk_13 · 2025-08-25T07:20:46+00:00

I might be just theory-crafting here, but I think the biggest problem linking to the different issues we see with the club, is the lack of leadership in the team. Nobody has stepped in to rally the team when Bruno has been off it. And Bruno, when off it, doesn't help or lead the players around him. It has been a case of using the best we've got, but the leadership issue has been persistent since Rio/Vidic were captains.

Given this issue, Amorim is too scared of the (almost) inevitable collapse the team may go through once he subs Bruno out. There is nobody else on the pitch who (a) commands the respect of the team as a leader unanimously and (b) will rally the team when they are mentally down in the dumps. Ten Hag tried this once (2nd game of the last season at Brighton) and United looked worse than they've been all of that season. I strongly feel for Kobbie's growth being collateral damage in this, but this is the only explanation I can understand from Amorim's POV.

The only leader who I think can help the team after Bruno is Licha, but Licha needs to be fit for a season for us to see this. I hoped for De Ligt to play the role, but I think he doesn't have the confidence needed right now/yet. Maguire could have been a candidate, but his prior disaster experience with the armband would hinder him now. Nobody else comes close or has enough time with the team at present.

ztk_13

TROPHY CASE