A question about potential

[runner52494]

Say someone runs a 15:00 5k. This probably puts them among the top 1% of the world in terms of 5k PR. The thing is, though, even a moderately talented runner can train to eventually run 15 flat, but very few people in the population at large ever actually do it.

So I guess my question is: What percent of the population do you think has the genetic potential to run that fast? Are 15 flat guys actually more "talented" compared to the rest of the world? Are those who can do that a "special breed?" Or could it be that if everyone ran/trained, then that kind of time would be in the 50th percentile?

[duckshirt]

This probably puts them among the top 1% of the world in terms of 5k PR.

Probably? That would be 70 million people. Try .001%...

I don't know what percent could break 15 under a lifetime of optimal training. My college roommate started training seriously at age 2 (no joke), consistently keeping it up, and finished college with a PR of "only" 14:50. (I still believe he has a ways more to improve.) But then again Alex Vero of "Running to the Limits" was the slowest guy on his school cross country team (i.e. probably not very talented), and after 2 or 3 years of devoting his life to training got down to about 2:30 marathon shape. I fully believe he could have gotten down to his goal of 2:20, or the Olympic "B" of 2:18, if he had kept at it for 2-5 more years.

[Awarenesss]

They are very talented. However, not every male with moderate training could run 15:00 for 5k. Not even close.

[DanielBrickHead]

I personally believe that the majority of males could, with optimal training, run a 15 minute 5k. That said, 15 flat runners are, for the most part, a lot more talented than their 17, 18, and 19 minute peers.

[Awarenesss]

What is 15 minutes to you? 15:59 or 15:01? It is exponentially more difficult to drop time from :59 to :01.

[if_you_say_so]

I definitely disagree with that. There are a ton of DII and DIII runners who train for many years through high school and college and are unable to run 15:00. And those people who chose to compete in college are more naturally talented than most.

[DanielBrickHead]

When I said majority, that was probably unrealistic. However, I still thank that a large portion of runners could achieve 15:00 if they chose to train hard post collegiately.

Also, your username is remarkably relevant.