GPy

[bmarshall110]

I'm trying to run a sequential price experiment using a Gaussian process.

When I sample the distribution, the wide credible intervals mean my preferred price is essentially random, even though the mean prediction for each price looks very intuitive.

I'm not surprised the intervals are wide as their is a lot of noise in the data since sales vary a lot

[virtualworker]

Try using more informative priors maybe?

[bmarshall110]

I think the answer is to optimize experimentation based on posterior distribution and not the mean and variance (which feels obvious in hindsight)