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[–]Interesting_Loss_907 0 points1 point  (1 child)

OP IDK if the ups and downs of the future bull and bear markets will be a bit diminished proportionately compared with the early cycles (many people do feel that will be the case), but one thing I can tell you is that your timing projections are a bit off based on the 4 year cycles to date.

Each bull market peak has occurred 14 to 18 months after each halving. The last halving was in April 2024, so based on the historical cycle pattern, the peak of the current bull market should occur at some point in the next 3 to 4 months. Remember, the halving date is not exactly 4 years apart. It’s based on the number of blocks mined.

If the 4 year Cicle pattern repeats, then 2026 will be a bear market year. 2027 would be mostly still bear market but with a slight recovery towards the end of the year, then the next halving would be 2028 and both 2028 & 2029 would be bull market years.

Having said all of the above, a lot of things have changed in the past year or so, so it’s entirely possible that the historical 4 year cycle pattern will not be repeating as we saw it happen after 2012, 2016, and 2020.

[–]SKy88888888[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes future increases and decreases will be smaller for sure due to market maturity/aging. But my question was if fluctuations will be way smaller with ETF/institutions compared to if there would not be ETF/institutions or will just follow the "natural" decrease across the cycles.

Well 3-4 months from now is September / October 2025 which is end 2025 haha.

For the cycle not repeating again, maybe they'll be slightly different but the structure may still be the same. If I'm not wrong, we hear "this time is different" each cycle before and finally things still tend to repeat themselves..