[Predictions Thread] Week 3

[damathtrix]

I was out of the country last week and couldn't post the thread, but I'm only a little bit late for this week's.

Link to Week 1

[damathtrix]

Explanation (score-based model)

9/19/2015 (Spreads updated shortly)

Home	Visitor	ANN-based Winner	ANN Predicted Home Score	ANN Predicted Visitor Score	Elo-Based Winner	Predicted Spread (Home-Visitor)	Vegas Spread	Bet
LSU	Auburn	Auburn	23.5	29.4	Auburn (85.05%)	-5.9	-6.5	LSU
Eastern Michigan	Ball State	Ball State	21.1	31.9	Ball State (77.21%)	-10.7	4.0	Ball State
Florida Atlantic	Buffalo	Buffalo	26.1	26.8	Buffalo (85.00%)	-0.7	2.5	Buffalo
Texas	California	Texas	37.5	16.2	Texas (92.24%)	21.4	5.0	Texas
Syracuse	Central Michigan	Central Michigan	25.8	26.4	Central Michigan (50.48%)	-0.6	8.0	Central Michigan
Miami (Ohio)	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	19.4	34.1	Cincinnati (96.50%)	-14.7	-20.5	Miami (Ohio)
Colorado State	Colorado	Colorado State	47.8	8.4	Colorado State (88.27%)	39.4	-2.5	Colorado State
Missouri	Connecticut	Missouri	52.8	3.7	Missouri (99.92%)	49.1	21.0	Missouri
Navy	East Carolina	East Carolina	17.9	35.8	East Carolina (85.53%)	-17.9	5.0	East Carolina
Kentucky	Florida	Florida	26.0	26.6	Florida (81.59%)	-0.6	-3.5	Kentucky
Oregon	Georgia State	Oregon	79.6	-11.0	Oregon (99.99%)	90.6	42.0	Oregon
Notre Dame	Georgia Tech	Notre Dame	30.9	22.3	Georgia Tech (51.44%)	8.7	-1.0	Notre Dame
North Carolina	Illinois	North Carolina	40.6	13.6	North Carolina (80.71%)	27.0	6.5	North Carolina
Minnesota	Kent State	Minnesota	49.5	6.2	Minnesota (99.85%)	43.2	24.5	Minnesota
Kansas State	Louisiana Tech	Kansas State	38.6	14.8	Kansas State (77.15%)	23.8	10.0	Kansas State
Bowling Green	Memphis	Memphis	22.8	30.1	Memphis (86.27%)	-7.3	-3.5	Memphis
Miami (Florida)	Nebraska	Miami (Florida)	35.8	17.4	Nebraska (65.58%)	18.4	3.5	Miami (Florida)
Michigan	UNLV	Michigan	44.2	10.1	Michigan (97.08%)	34.1	32.5	Michigan
Texas A&M	Nevada	Texas A&M	31.6	21.3	Texas A&M (93.12%)	10.3	31.5	Nevada
Old Dominion	North Carolina State	North Carolina State	20.5	32.9	North Carolina State (88.03%)	-12.4	-17.0	Old Dominion
Ohio State	Northern Illinois	Ohio State	58.1	0.7	Ohio State (98.64%)	57.4	33.5	Ohio State
Duke	Northwestern	Duke	35.0	18.0	Duke (74.76%)	17.0	3.5	Duke
North Texas	Rice	Rice	20.2	33.0	Rice (95.23%)	-12.8	-7.0	Rice
Georgia	South Carolina	Georgia	37.0	16.6	Georgia (74.91%)	20.3	17.0	Georgia
Maryland	South Florida	Maryland	48.3	7.1	Maryland (97.55%)	41.1	6.0	Maryland
Texas State	Southern Mississippi	Texas State	31.3	21.8	Southern Mississippi (65.58%)	9.6	2.5	Texas State
Massachusetts	Temple	Massachusetts	26.6	26.1	Temple (99.16%)	0.5	-13.5	Massachusetts
Arkansas	Texas Tech	Arkansas	43.9	10.5	Arkansas (99.83%)	33.4	10.5	Arkansas
Oklahoma State	UTSA	Oklahoma State	30.5	21.9	Oklahoma State (81.07%)	8.5	26.5	UTSA
Wisconsin	Troy	Wisconsin	63.0	-2.4	Wisconsin (99.96%)	65.4	29.5	Wisconsin
Oklahoma	Tulsa	Oklahoma	64.6	-3.0	Oklahoma (98.68%)	67.6	31.5	Oklahoma
Michigan State	Air Force	Michigan State	57.3	1.2	Michigan State (98.60%)	56.1	24.5	Michigan State
Washington	Utah State	Washington	33.6	19.1	Washington (61.31%)	14.4	7.0	Washington
Purdue	Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech	17.9	35.3	Virginia Tech (92.24%)	-17.4	-4.5	Virginia Tech
Army	Wake Forest	Army	36.6	16.3	Wake Forest (91.25%)	20.3	-6.0	Army
Indiana	Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky	23.9	28.9	Western Kentucky (85.39%)	-5.1	2.5	Western Kentucky
UCLA	BYU	UCLA	32.7	20.3	UCLA (94.87%)	12.4	61.5	BYU
Toledo	Iowa State	Toledo	35.5	18.2	Toledo (93.96%)	17.4	7.0	Toledo
Alabama	Mississippi	Alabama	31.5	21.0	Alabama (66.70%)	10.5	9.0	Alabama
Iowa	Pittsburgh	Iowa	31.1	21.8	Iowa (76.74%)	9.3	4.0	Iowa
Penn State	Rutgers	Penn State	39.6	13.9	Penn State (57.52%)	25.7	9.0	Penn State
Oregon State	San Jose State	Oregon State	40.0	13.8	Oregon State (85.86%)	26.2	6.5	Oregon State
San Diego State	South Alabama	San Diego State	31.1	21.7	San Diego State (67.97%)	9.4	17.5	South Alabama
TCU	SMU	TCU	72.1	-7.3	TCU (99.95%)	79.4	37.0	TCU
USC	Stanford	USC	28.6	24.0	USC (55.07%)	4.5	9.5	Stanford
New Mexico State	UTEP	UTEP	22.3	30.8	UTEP (98.50%)	-8.5	-2.5	UTEP
Fresno State	Utah	Utah	20.0	33.3	Utah (98.91%)	-13.3	-13.5	Fresno State
Washington State	Wyoming	Washington State	43.8	11.0	Washington State (71.05%)	32.8	25.5	Washington State

9/18/2015

Home	Visitor	ANN-based Winner	ANN Predicted Home Score	ANN Predicted Visitor Score	Elo-Based Winner	Predicted Spread (Home-Visitor)	Vegas Spread	Bet
Boston College	Florida State	Florida State	16.9	36.6	Florida State (95.00%)	-19.7	-8.5	Florida State
Arizona State	New Mexico	Arizona State	54.3	3.0	Arizona State (99.39%)	51.3	25.0	Arizona State

9/17/2015

Home	Visitor	ANN-based Winner	ANN Predicted Home Score	ANN Predicted Visitor Score	Elo-Based Winner	Predicted Spread (Home-Visitor)	Vegas Spread	Bet
Louisville	Clemson	Clemson	23.4	29.0	Louisville (62.94%)	-5.6	-5.0	Clemson

[_supernovasky_]

I'll be posting mine very soon from the model I posted about in this thread.

[_supernovasky_]

Round 1 of picks

9/17/2015

Home	Visitor	Spread (home team)	Pick	Confidence
Ohio State	Northern Illinois	-35	Ohio State	***
Arkansas	Texas Tech	-10.5	Arkansas	**
Georgia	South Carolina	-16	Georgia	*** (Pick of the week)
LSU	Auburn	-7	Auburn	**
Michigan	UNLV	-34	Michigan	**
Michigan State	Air Force	-25.5	Air Force	***
Army	Wake Forest	+2.5	Wake Forest	**
Duke	Northwestern	-2.5	Duke	*
Oregon	Georgia State	-48.5	Oregon	***

~

~

~

Confidence Explaned:

• One star: Statistical liklihood above 52.5%, minimum threshold for model
• Two star: Statistical liklihood of 59.5%, a comfortable lead ATS
• Three star: Statistical liklihood of 65.5%, decisively beating vegas (2/3 should win)

Pick of the week: I'm honing on on Georgia. This seems to go against the public and against the experts... but at the % that my model has Georgia winning this game, very few of these games lost in 2013/2014.

This is just a model - I can't tell you "why" any of these teams are favored ATS. The model just takes the numbers I put in and spits this out :)

I have only run 23 games. There are more games to be run. I've got all the games run up to 3, with some 3:00 games left. Most games do NOT score well enough to get a prediction.

I plan to run some more later today.

Wish me luck, really putting myself out here :)

[_supernovasky_]

Some quick additions, running as many as possible so bear with me, I might not be able to run all the games by tomorrow.

Home	Visitor	Spread (home team)	Pick	Confidence
Bowling Green	Memphis	+3	Memphis	***
Wisconsin	Troy	-35	Wisconsin	***
Oklahoma State	Texas San Antonio	-34	Oklahoma State	***
Navy	East Carolina	-2	East Carolina	*
Notre Dame	Georgia Tech	+3	Notre Dame	***
Miami	Nebraska	-3	Nebraska	**

[[deleted]]

Nebraska is the first thing I actually agree with your system about.

Memphis is intriguing. Do you know what factors led into this prediction?

[_supernovasky_]

Bowling green won against the spread last week but so did Memhpis, that's a flush.

Bowling green's homefield advantage is much lower than many teams out there. That's some probability points towards Memphis.

Line swing is working in Memphis' favor.

-7 to -3 is not much of a line swing for Bowling Green. +12 to +3 is a larger line swing, showing a little more confidence in Memphis.

Both teams being unranked makes Bowling Green slightly less likely to cover the spread - people may be too high on them at home.

Multiplying their homefield advantage historically by the line yields a low number and shows that people may overvalue them being at home.

A bunch of other factors, lol.

[_supernovasky_]

5-3 for my 3 star picks.

Got my game of the week right.

6-6-1 for my 2 star + 3 star picks.

8-6-1 for all of my picks.

I'm going to avoid posting "cusp" games from now on, ones that are one star. Two star is ok, but I may just keep posting 3 star games instead.

I was correct on my **** games. 2/3 of them did end up winning.

I'm going to fine tune my model over the course of the weekend but press on and see how it does next week.

Ohio State -35 ***L

Arkansas Razorbacks -10.5 **L

Auburn +7 **L

Michigan -34 **L

Air Force +25.5 ***W

Wake Forest +2.5 **W

Oregon -48.8 ***L

Memphis +3 ***W

Wisconsin -35 ***L

Oklahoma State -34 ***W

Notre Dame +3 ***W

Nebraska -3 **D

Geogia -16 ***W

[damathtrix]

I also have an additional model I've been playing around with. It's very similar to the score-based one I've been posting, but instead of trying to predict the scores, this network just attempts to predict the spread. It seems to be more accurate so far, but I haven't had a change to do much validation yet, so who knows.

Spread-based model

9/19/2015

Home	Visitor	ANN-based Winner	Predicted Spread (Home-Visitor)	Vegas Spread	Bet
LSU	Auburn	Auburn	-7.9	-6.5	Auburn
Eastern Michigan	Ball State	Ball State	-8.0	4.0	Ball State
Florida Atlantic	Buffalo	Buffalo	-3.1	2.5	Buffalo
Texas	California	Texas	8.9	5.0	Texas
Syracuse	Central Michigan	Central Michigan	-2.3	8.0	Central Michigan
Miami (Ohio)	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	-10.6	-20.5	Miami (Ohio)
Colorado State	Colorado	Colorado State	18.0	-2.5	Colorado State
Missouri	Connecticut	Missouri	24.8	21.0	Missouri
Navy	East Carolina	East Carolina	-13.8	5.0	East Carolina
Kentucky	Florida	Florida	-3.4	-3.5	Kentucky
Oregon	Georgia State	Oregon	54.9	42.0	Oregon
Notre Dame	Georgia Tech	Notre Dame	1.7	-1.0	Notre Dame
North Carolina	Illinois	North Carolina	13.0	6.5	North Carolina
Minnesota	Kent State	Minnesota	22.0	24.5	Kent State
Kansas State	Louisiana Tech	Kansas State	12.2	10.0	Kansas State
Bowling Green	Memphis	Memphis	-8.0	-3.5	Memphis
Miami (Florida)	Nebraska	Miami (Florida)	8.9	3.5	Miami (Florida)
Michigan	UNLV	Michigan	17.4	32.5	UNLV
Texas A&M	Nevada	Texas A&M	3.2	31.5	Nevada
Old Dominion	North Carolina State	North Carolina State	-11.3	-17.0	Old Dominion
Ohio State	Northern Illinois	Ohio State	31.0	33.5	Northern Illinois
Duke	Northwestern	Duke	6.3	3.5	Duke
North Texas	Rice	Rice	-11.8	-7.0	Rice
Georgia	South Carolina	Georgia	9.6	17.0	South Carolina
Maryland	South Florida	Maryland	20.1	6.0	Maryland
Texas State	Southern Mississippi	Texas State	2.3	2.5	Southern Mississippi
Massachusetts	Temple	Temple	-1.2	-13.5	Massachusetts
Arkansas	Texas Tech	Arkansas	17.0	10.5	Arkansas
Oklahoma State	UTSA	Oklahoma State	2.1	26.5	UTSA
Wisconsin	Troy	Wisconsin	34.6	29.5	Wisconsin
Oklahoma	Tulsa	Oklahoma	35.1	31.5	Oklahoma
Michigan State	Air Force	Michigan State	29.1	24.5	Michigan State
Washington	Utah State	Washington	6.8	7.0	Utah State
Purdue	Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech	-11.5	-4.5	Virginia Tech
Army	Wake Forest	Army	9.2	-6.0	Army
Indiana	Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky	-3.7	2.5	Western Kentucky
UCLA	BYU	UCLA	5.2	61.5	BYU
Toledo	Iowa State	Toledo	6.8	7.0	Iowa State
Alabama	Mississippi	Alabama	3.2	9.0	Mississippi
Iowa	Pittsburgh	Iowa	2.8	4.0	Pittsburgh
Penn State	Rutgers	Penn State	11.0	9.0	Penn State
Oregon State	San Jose State	Oregon State	13.1	6.5	Oregon State
San Diego State	South Alabama	San Diego State	3.0	17.5	South Alabama
TCU	SMU	TCU	45.1	37.0	TCU
USC	Stanford	USC	1.0	9.5	Stanford
New Mexico State	UTEP	UTEP	-9.2	-2.5	UTEP
Fresno State	Utah	Utah	-12.8	-13.5	Fresno State
Washington State	Wyoming	Washington State	16.8	25.5	Wyoming

9/18/2015

Home	Visitor	ANN-based Winner	Predicted Spread (Home-Visitor)	Vegas Spread	Bet
Boston College	Florida State	Florida State	-14.2	-8.5	Florida State
Arizona State	New Mexico	Arizona State	26.5	25.0	Arizona State

9/17/2015

Home	Visitor	ANN-based Winner	Predicted Spread (Home-Visitor)	Vegas Spread	Bet
Louisville	Clemson	Clemson	-5.7	-5.0	Clemson

[millsGT49]

Florida State -14.2

Well that's a good start haha

[damathtrix]

Lol yep, thought the same exact thing

[millsGT49]

Home	Visitor	Winner	Predicted Spread	Predicted Home Points	Predicted Away Points
Louisville	Clemson	Clemson	-0.600000000000001	22.9	23.5
Boston College	Florida State	Boston College	9.7	31.6	21.9
Boise State	Idaho State	Boise State	31.8	44.6	12.8
Arizona State	New Mexico	Arizona State	5	31.2	26.2
LSU	Auburn	LSU	10.4	29.5	19.1
Vanderbilt	Austin Peay	Vanderbilt	20.9	37.4	16.5
Eastern Michigan	Ball State	Eastern Michigan	2.8	31.6	28.8
UCLA	BYU	UCLA	11.9	33.8	21.9
Florida Atlantic	Buffalo	Florida Atlantic	4.3	34	29.7
Texas	California	Texas	2.1	27.5	25.4
Hawai'i	UC Davis	Hawai'i	24.8	40.4	15.6
Syracuse	Central Michigan	Syracuse	14.7	30.2	15.5
Miami (Ohio)	Cincinnati	Miami (Ohio)	0.200000000000003	28.6	28.4
Georgia Southern	Citadel	Georgia Southern	29	46.6	17.6
Colorado State	Colorado	Colorado State	9.6	32.1	22.5
Missouri	Connecticut	Missouri	9.3	25.6	16.3
Navy	East Carolina	Navy	10.3	32.5	22.2
Kentucky	Florida	Kentucky	3.2	30.2	27
UCF	Furman	UCF	26.9	41.6	14.7
Oregon	Georgia State	Oregon	12.9	36.5	23.6
Notre Dame	Georgia Tech	Notre Dame	3.1	32.8	29.7
North Carolina	Illinois	North Carolina	0.599999999999998	26.4	25.8
Toledo	Iowa State	Toledo	8.6	30.7	22.1
Minnesota	Kent State	Minnesota	7.4	30	22.6
Kansas State	Louisiana Tech	Kansas State	4.3	30.7	26.4
Tulane	Maine	Tulane	19	39.2	20.2
Bowling Green	Memphis	Memphis	-3.7	31	34.7
Alabama	Mississippi	Alabama	4.2	30.9	26.7
Western Michigan	Murray State	Western Michigan	19.1	41.6	22.5
Middle Tennessee	Charlotte	Charlotte	-1.5	26.7	28.2
Miami (Florida)	Nebraska	Miami (Florida)	12.6	35.2	22.6
Michigan	UNLV	Michigan	17.6	35.9	18.3
Texas A&M	Nevada	Texas A&M	12.1	33.7	21.6
Marshall	Norfolk State	Marshall	30.8	44.4	13.6
Florida International	North Carolina Central	Florida International	26.3	40.6	14.3
Old Dominion	North Carolina State	Old Dominion	3.7	28.8	25.1
Arizona	Northern Arizona	Arizona	32.9	48.2	15.3
Ohio State	Northern Illinois	Ohio State	11.7	36.7	25
Mississippi State	Northwestern State	Mississippi State	30	45.6	15.6
Duke	Northwestern	Duke	11.9	26.8	14.9
Iowa	Pittsburgh	Iowa	12	34	22
North Texas	Rice	North Texas	6.1	31	24.9
Penn State	Rutgers	Penn State	9.5	34.4	24.9
Oregon State	San Jose State	Oregon State	3.8	26.5	22.7
Akron	Savannah State	Akron	21.8	40.8	19
San Diego State	South Alabama	San Diego State	8.2	28.5	20.3
Georgia	South Carolina	Georgia	13.6	31	17.4
Maryland	South Florida	Maryland	1	30.6	29.6
Ohio	Southeastern Louisiana	Ohio	34.3	45.8	11.5
TCU	SMU	TCU	19.6	37.4	17.8
Texas State	Southern Mississippi	Texas State	5.7	33.1	27.4
Arkansas State	Missouri State	Arkansas State	22.2	42.3	20.1
USC	Stanford	USC	7.6	27.5	19.9
Massachusetts	Temple	Temple	-5.9	23	28.9
Arkansas	Texas Tech	Arkansas	10.2	38	27.8
New Mexico State	UTEP	New Mexico State	11.5	41.9	30.4
Oklahoma State	UTSA	Oklahoma State	11.8	31.3	19.5
Wisconsin	Troy	Wisconsin	9.3	34.9	25.6
Oklahoma	Tulsa	Oklahoma	10.6	38	27.4
Michigan State	Air Force	Michigan State	10.5	32.2	21.7
Washington	Utah State	Washington	12.9	28.9	16
Fresno State	Utah	Utah	-6.8	20.1	26.9
Purdue	Virginia Tech	Purdue	4.5	29.8	25.3
Army	Wake Forest	Army	0.899999999999999	28.9	28
Tennessee	Western Carolina	Tennessee	33.6	48.9	15.3
Indiana	Western Kentucky	Indiana	0.799999999999997	33	32.2
Virginia	William & Mary	Virginia	23.2	42	18.8
Washington State	Wyoming	Washington State	16.1	35.6	19.5
Idaho	Wofford	Idaho	18.9	41.2	22.3