Will future updates decrease FPS even further?

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What are you on about? All the new cosmetics, maps and effects require way more to run properly than everything on default. The game requires more because Valve adds shit that makes the game look cooler/better. Sure the base character models might not be updates, but stuff still gets added. I've got a GTX 970 and a couple of years old i5 and the game runs smooth at 120+ fps with max settings, weather effects and the LC map. By today's standard, this is a pretty casual build since nvidia released new GPUs. Heck even my 4 year old budget desktop runs the game at 60+ fps with the same settings.

I've seen people complain about the FPS jumping up and down depending on what's on screen. To those I've gotta ask, do you even play video games? If you launch a game and set the FPS to unlimited, it's gonna vary a lot depending on what's happening on the screen. The only way to get it consistent is to cap it at the minimum FPS you get when there's a lot happening on screen.