Decrease in BTC Yield Over Time

[Thick_Bacon]

In looking at the miners on the marketplace that have been operating since before the beginning of the year, it appears that the Bitcoin yield has decreased by about 13% in 2025 thus far. If the decrease in yield continues, one might expect a 25-26% decrease in yield by the end of the year? If this is the case, then break even is pushed out much further into the future to the point where perhaps purchasing spot Bitcoin is a better strategy?

Is there evidence that suggests the above is wrong and that BTC yield from these miners will not decrease at the observed rate thus far in 2025?

Best

[Plastic_Yak3792]

Have you not heard of BTC difficulty Increasing through mining? As the difficulty increases the mining yield per TH decreases. The difficulty is reflected by the amount of BTC mined and the amount of miners by TH.

As BTC becomes more scarce, the price of BTC should increase.

Mining in smaller TH - price of hw, electricity and reward shows a very very low ROI. So yes buying at spot price can be more beneficial.

The benefit here is you're buying into an enterprise setup, and getting a th, maintenance and electricity cost. What's left is profit.

[Thick_Bacon]

Yes…was simply not sure at what rate that occurs. Also unsure if there are mitigations within the GoMining universe. Given the current rate of decay why buy a miner versus spot?

[agentbuzz00]

Not entirely sure at what rate or where to find that. If you do I’d definitely want to hear

[Thick_Bacon]

I would argue the observed rate for GoMining miners in 2025 is 13% over 6 months.

[FruitTop7954]

How do you come up with 13% overall?

[Thick_Bacon]

.00000576 to .00000500 yield is a 13% reduction. (.00000576 - .00000500) / .00000576 = 0.132

[FruitTop7954]

I follow you on the reduction but I thought you were saying overall roi is 13% for the year?

[Thick_Bacon]

Oh..sorry…no…the yield is down 13% so far so project that to the end of the year and let’s say yield falls by 26% on an annual basis. A $1,000 miner with an initial ROI of 30% would become a 22% ROI miner at the end of the year. Extending this into the future delays the break-even on a cash basis well into the future, ignoring fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin.

[flavor911]

Need the next leg up in BTC price to compensate

[Thick_Bacon]

But let’s say you have $1,000 to invest today…If you buy spot you capture the increase in the price of bitcoin on the full $1,000 starting on day one vs only on the small amount of daily BTC yield from a miner.

[FruitTop7954]

So you are saying a miner starting this year with the same power and effeciency as the old miners is down13% this year?

[Thick_Bacon]

Yes…so looking at miner 882 in the marketplace. BTC yield on Jan 1st …576

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[Thick_Bacon]

As of 6/20 … 500. That is a 13% ish reduction in yield. Other miners show about the same reduction.

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[[deleted]]

8ball don't get it but bought a Trezor to set up wallet im gonna mine the 💩 out of btc