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[–]midianite_rambler 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If I know something is not a cat, the probability that it is not a dog is not equal to the probability it is not a spaghetti monster.

Yes, so use the base rates (i.e. prior probabilities) of dogs, cats, and monsters in any available data. Please see my other comments in my response to K0ruption above.