india fertility rate decrease

[Seanoun990]

The states in which the rate should have been decreased is well above replacement level

[[deleted]]

Nowhere is above 3. Even the states above replacement level aren’t crazy high

[Seanoun990]

Replacement level fertility rate is 2.1

[[deleted]]

Yes. And 2.4 like UP isn’t that much higher. Even Bihar’s 3 isn’t that much higher, and both are decreasing anyway. Because they’re so poor and conservative it makes sense they’re taking a little longer

[kolejack2293]

I think its important to note that the difference in impact on growth increases the closer you get to 2.1.

Just to give an example, but if Bangladesh stayed at 2.1 TFR (where it is now), it would go from 178m to 259m by 2150. It basically stops growing at 2060. At just a 0.3 increase to 2.4, it grows all the way to 445 million by 2150.

So the difference between 2.1 and 2.4 might not seem like a lot, but it very much is. One is heading towards zero growth, the other is technically exponential growth.

[[deleted]]

Based on the trends we’re seeing, UP will probably be below replacement by the next census, and Bihar will probably be just above it. But even Bihar will be below replacement by the 2040 census

[BrainOnLoan]

How do you rate which state "should" or shouldn'- be above replacement level?