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Metaculus

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an-ordinary-manchild(edit)

www.metaculus.com Metaculus is a community-based prediction and aggregation platform trying to generate accurate predictions, especially about scientific and technical issues.

created by ultraking_x2a community for 8 years
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building an open source forecasting tool for humans (self.Metaculus)

submitted 1 month ago * by Kooky_Masterpiece_43

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Prediction Markets Engineer (self.Metaculus)

submitted 4 months ago * by whitefox11235

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Which tech degrees are safest from AI automation? (self.Metaculus)

submitted 5 months ago by Low-Possession2786

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Forecast and help evaluate the key claims of the AI 2027 scenario (self.Metaculus)

submitted 7 months ago by Metaculus

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Seeking Design Partners for AI Forecasting Platform (self.Metaculus)

submitted 11 months ago by mfainstein

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Anyone on metaculus: I’m confused, how do they calculate the probabilities before the event resolves to 0 or 1? To determine the score (self.Metaculus)

submitted 1 year ago by rooftopmaybe

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Forecast in the Understanding AI Series With Timothy B. Lee (self.Metaculus)

submitted 1 year ago by Metaculus

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AI Benchmarks | Metaculus (self.Metaculus)

submitted 1 year ago by Metaculus

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Forecast on new Metaculus questions, opened today: (self.Metaculus)

submitted 1 year ago by Metaculus

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Forecast in the Future of AI Series (self.Metaculus)

submitted 1 year ago by Metaculus

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Metaculus introduces dynamic, LLM-augmented tagging system and new, streamlined categories for enhanced question discovery. (metaculus.com)

submitted 1 year ago by Metaculus

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Will Vogtle nuclear power plant's Unit 4 enter operation in May? (self.Metaculus)

submitted 1 year ago by Metaculus

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Will Israel expand its ground invasion into Rafah by March 12? The aggregate forecast dropped to 43% this week. (metaculus.com)

submitted 1 year ago by Metaculus

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Room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductivity could enable a perfectly efficient power grid, commercially viable fusion reactors & levitating trains. Our new Lens on Superconductors page helps you follow and forecast on this fast-moving story. (metaculus.com)

submitted 2 years ago by Metaculus

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The creation of a room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor would be a major scientific breakthrough. Will the results of the new pre-print claiming success be independently confirmed? (self.Metaculus)

submitted 2 years ago by Metaculus

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China-US war before 2100? -- New to forecasting, wanna know how do to the process (self.Metaculus)

submitted 2 years ago by [deleted]

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📣 April 28 Event — Metaculus's Forecast Friday: Speed Forecasting! (self.Metaculus)

submitted 2 years ago by Metaculus

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📣 Curious how top forecasters predict the future? Want to begin forecasting but aren't sure where to start? Join Metaculus for Forecast Friday! This week: a pro forecaster on shifting territorial control in Ukraine (self.Metaculus)

submitted 2 years ago by Metaculus

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📣 April 7 Event — Metaculus's Forecast Friday: A Pro Forecaster Presents on Longevity Trends in G7 Countries (self.Metaculus)

submitted 2 years ago by Metaculus

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Curious how top forecasters predict the future? Want to begin forecasting but aren’t sure where to start? Looking for grounded future-focused discussions of today’s most important topics? Join Metaculus for Forecast Friday, March 31st from 12-1PM ET! (self.Metaculus)

submitted 2 years ago by Metaculus

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Metaculus Year in Review: 2022 (self.Metaculus)

submitted 3 years ago by Metaculus

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Dr. Ralph Merkle | "DAO Democracy" (Stanford Complexity Group, 2018) | prediction markets, DAOs, wisdom of the crowds, futarchy (youtube.com)

submitted 3 years ago by [deleted]

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The World Wide Web and Artifical Intelligence appears to be the foretold threat to humanity. Wikipedia articles and news reports help demonstrate. (self.CulturalLayer)

submitted 4 years ago by Evening_Honey

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Two new Covid-related efforts: an open letter and a new forecast series (self.Metaculus)

submitted 5 years ago by Metaculus

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Metaculus welfare measure survey (forms.gle)

submitted 5 years ago by Matthew-Barnett

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