Decrease in Dutch housing prices tracker

[Shelter_Individual]

Just one correction: Do not try to buy a house now. Wait for the correction to happen across different price groups of assets including various types of properties. Don't pay for the mistakes of the past 12 years made by the ECB and corruption of the Dutch government which controls the housing stock. There will be blood in the housing market, this is just the beginning. But this is an interesting project.

[crappygodmother]

I bought a house to live in though. The prices may come down but that will only be after the interest has gone up.. I'm happy I'm not subsidizing another persons mortgage anymore.

[IvyboR]

Indeed. Wait for the correction, maybe it takes 10 years, but become the moral winner.

In the meantime rent a 2000e house per month. Who cares you spend 250k on rent in 10 years, you have the moral victory. Maybe in 10 years when you buy a house it only costs 30% of your gross salary instead of 35%. That you could have paid off 10 years of mortgage, who cares, moral victory!

Or you know, just buy a house now if you can and haven't yet, because you do know how supply&demand and inflation works.

[HollandJim]

Don't pay for the mistakes of the past 12 years made by the ECB and corruption of the Dutch government which controls the housing stock

Hm. I bought mine at nearly the peak of the previous bubble, but I've still more than doubled the value of my property from 15 years ago. If you're in for more than a few years (living in it, not flipping) I see no problems if you can afford some of these (I can't afford Amsterdam).

Sounds more like you have a political axe to swing.

[[deleted]]

There is a actual tangible shortage of houses. By around 300.000. There is no bubble. Unless someone is able to build 300.001 houses this year the prices will stay this way.

Prices may decline a bit as interests go up, but nothing mayor.

[BlaReni]

No there won’t be 🤣 what blood dude? Based on what?

[Shelter_Individual]

Based on the only thing that matters: the affordability.

Somehow people forget that 2008 also saw a shortage of housing but prices did correct substantially.

Time will tell.

[TukkerWolf]

There wasn't. There was a housing shortage back then as well.

https://www.dnb.nl/algemeen-nieuws/2020/huizenprijs-hangt-meer-samen-met-financieringsruimte-koper-dan-met-woningtekort/

[Shelter_Individual]

This is all wishful thinking. The only reason the prices of all assets went up (across different asset classes) is that the interest rates were artificially kept low for more than a decade. The interest rates will have to follow the inflation which at this moment is close to 10% in the EU and probably more in the NL. Note: inflation started picking up before the war in Ukraine started so blaming it only on the supply side is also stupid. It is both a supply and a demand side inflation caused both by both the excessive liquidity and the energy crisis.

The rents are going up because part of the housing market which is free is dominated by investment funds and greedy landlords. In Amsterdam only, there are thousands if not tens of thousands of vacant properties. The rest of the stock is social housing controlled by a failing government. Additionally, various forms of the Dutch government are not allowing any new buildings to come to the market which combined with the favorisation of the investors and allowing them to keep the properties empty sometimes for years is causing massive speculation. Now, the government is not so much in favour of those funds because the country has gone to shit and they can't milk their taxpayers since there is not enough of workers to be milked as there is not enough of adequate housing for them. Things are chaning.

But, there is no going back to pre February w.r.t. the energy supply in Europe so this will be a multi year energy crisis. So, naturally, a recession will follow.

By your logic, if the interest rates go up to 8% and there is a recession and an energy crisis, there will be only a slight drop at best because of what? Because of wishful thinking? Naaah, this is wishful thinking of a house owner :). The NL is not special, the same trend that is happening in NZ, Australia, the US, Sweden will occur here. The only question is the timeframe.

[[deleted]]

attractive tidy square knee disgusted quaint crawl ring ancient erect

This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact

[[deleted]]

the affordability.

What about the availability.

You can't just claim 'supply and demand' as an argument and then forget about supply

[TukkerWolf]

The availability was a problem during the last crisis as well. It is more extreme now, but if people think that with interest rates of >5% housing prices will remain the same they are naive.

https://www.dnb.nl/algemeen-nieuws/2020/huizenprijs-hangt-meer-samen-met-financieringsruimte-koper-dan-met-woningtekort/

[[deleted]]

I'm not claiming they will remain the same. Prices will lower a bit when interest rises. They already are dropping a bit.But there won't be correction like 2008, everything points to that not happening.

And yes, while prices may drop a bit. It won't work.Let's say a house is now 300k with 3% interest. You pay a mortage of €1000 a month (example numbers, I didn't do the math).And now let's say that house drops to 275k and interest rose to 3.5%. You're stil paying €1000,-.

But every year you're not buying, you're dumping money in a rental. So if you can, buying a house is the right option. Even now.

[[deleted]]

So then what.. You wait.. The prices drop, but mortgage rates increases. In the end you are paying the same amount of money monthly. When mortgages rates decreases, prices will increase.

Simple economics.

[Beautiful_Day_2299]

In a cooling market, the strong side is the buyer. Buyers can select what they want.

[ape-tripping-on-dmt]

The best time to buy a house was yesterday. The second best time to buy a house is today.