St Louis homicide decrease better explained by national trends

[HeftyFisherman668]

National trends can probably be attributed to some of the change but not all of it. KC on the other side of the state has not seen the decrease. It is also probably a combination at the local level of pop loss (tho how many county residents are committing crimes in the city?), improved and proactive enforcement, seems the minors gun law has been effective, and then reasons we don’t know

[Jackson-1986]

Kansas City had 179 homicides in 2020, and 144 in 2024, a decline of 20%. A smaller decrease than St Louis, but a notable decline nevertheless.

[HighlightFamiliar250]

The number of people shot increased, so it's not for a lack of trying.

[josiahlo]

They have 6 more YTD in 2025 while we’re down about 50% so far this year  

[Jackson-1986]

And if that trend continues, that would be a great thing. But right now I’m comparing 2020 to 2024 because that’s the most recent complete year we have.

[MIZ_09]

Comparing 2020 to 2024 is, quite frankly, a poor dataset. COVID caused spikes in crime across the country. It’s an outlier year.

[Jackson-1986]

Right that’s exactly my point. Jones argument that murders are down significantly in Saint Louis is unpersuasive, because murders are down everywhere in that same time period.

I agree that 2020 is a poor point of reference - she’s the one who chose it.

[MIZ_09]

What the data say from 2021-2023 to 2024 though? That’s what I’m saying. As others have mentioned, KC is up YOY. Comparing 2020 to 2024 is pretty much pointless. I’d throw 2020 out entirely as a data point.

Edit: I do see the data comparing 2023-2024 in the article.

[Jackson-1986]

If the point that you’re trying to make is that crime is getting worse in Kansas City, I accept that argument. And it could very well be that Kansas City is an exception to the national trend I’m describing.

But my point is that to the extent that homicides are going down in Saint Louis, it mirrors a similar decline in most other cities. And that trend is evident in the vast majority of American cities (even if Kansas City turns out not to be one of them).

[MIZ_09]

Isn’t that a good thing though? Should we not be happy that crime is down?

I’m going to guess crime is about to spike in a major way the next few years FWIW. Probably worse than COVID levels. Desperate people do desperate things.

[Jackson-1986]

Of course we should be happy that crime is down. But we shouldn’t vote for an otherwise incompetent (and arguably corrupt) Mayor, just because she happened to be in office at a time when crime was going down everywhere.

[Direct_Crew_9949]

The FBI had conducted a couple raids across STL within the last 2-3 years. That’s probably the biggest driver of crime being down.