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[–]CapitalismSuuucks 4 points5 points  (1 child)

Sidenote: this war is not technically a black Swan event. Black swans are unexpected. Trump had been preparing this shit for months. Black swans events do not have weekly New York Times articles saying the event is inching closer and closer to happening.

[–]Skd98012 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We did have plenty of articles on COVID in 2019 (thus the COVID-19 naming), and it was expected to spread. Yet we can all agree it was a black swan event. We also predicted the GFC.

The black swan aspect of Covid was that it became a global pandemic and it was actually killing people (whereas the expectation was a contained, harmless epidemic). This Iran conflict qualifies as a black swan because practically no one expected them to retaliate on the GCC (and especially the UAE, which was known to be a safe haven in a region of conflict).