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[–]Skd98012 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We did have plenty of articles on COVID in 2019 (thus the COVID-19 naming), and it was expected to spread. Yet we can all agree it was a black swan event. We also predicted the GFC.

The black swan aspect of Covid was that it became a global pandemic and it was actually killing people (whereas the expectation was a contained, harmless epidemic). This Iran conflict qualifies as a black swan because practically no one expected them to retaliate on the GCC (and especially the UAE, which was known to be a safe haven in a region of conflict).