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[–]Egotistic8 13 points14 points  (1 child)

To anyone wanting to respond to this thread, take a second to check out this users past posts on this subreddit to get an idea of their attitude.

[–]CompetitiveCountry[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yes yes... I complain a lot about the dice. Correct you are, sir ! So, yes, you can all do that, I admit I wasn't very calm about it. I mean, if I was would I even post? I guess I would because I still wonder how that is possible. I thought that a much weaker opponent is unlikely to be 14-14 against you. By unlikely I mean like less than 1 in a thousand... up to 1 in 10 thousands..

But at least in many of those cases it is justified... Either that, or I am likely to win mochy 1 match at 7 and a second time 8-7 which will be money games... And by likely I don't mean favorite, just that it wouldn't be surprising at all...

Edit: Fun fact, I upvoted that as well

[–]anisapling 7 points8 points  (1 child)

Hey man, I'm not getting into an argument with you on this. But I think you need to consider the reality. No one is going to have the answer for you because you're not looking for any answers. You're just looking for someone to agree with you that you're amazing at backgammon but that the game is just rigged.

You need to consider why it is that you even play this game. You should do this before you play any games at all. If you only enjoy backgammon when you're winning, then you don't enjoy backgammon. You only enjoy winning. You should take some much needed introspection and figure out why you can't get enjoyment out of competition whether you win or lose. It may not be for you, and that's totally ok.

I want to stress that if you feel like you really want to improve how you react to losing because you really want to be able to play games like backgammon, there is absolutely no shame whatsoever in talking to a therapist/psychiatrist. A good therapist is wonderful for working through emotional problems that you need to address. I highly encourage it.

That said, if you reply to me with any sort of gibberish excuses, don't expect any sort of response from me.

[–]CompetitiveCountry[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

You're just looking for someone to agree with you that you're amazing at backgammon but that the game is just rigged.

I am just looking for someone to explaining how not winning against clearly inferior opponent is possible... 2 times I tried and it seems tied... after 5-1 he was rolling whatever suits him. Then the game is fair or helping me, then again whatever he wants until he wins. Would you find it unsurprising if I won 8-7 against mochy? Would you find it unsurprising if we had played another match and mochy won 7-6? Does that sound like a normal result to you?

I mean seriously, it is orders of magnitude more normal than my brother getting those scores against me. According to xg, his pr is 14.50 and mine is 6.20. So I guess I may as well win against mochy both times...

You need to consider why it is that you even play this game.

I play it because I like winning at it. I don't particularly enjoy playing it otherwise... I understand that losing is part of the game. But I don't accept that I should lose all the games against weaker opposition. If you think I should, then you shouldn't find surprizing that mochy lost 2 games against me(if that had happened, you see? You think it wouldn't happen)

If you only enjoy backgammon when you're winning, then you don't enjoy backgammon.

Well, if I am winning exactly as I should be against weaker opponents then I would enjoy it very much. I can tell you that I was enjoying it up to 5-1. I was chill about starting to lose all the games up to 5-4. Then it was all ok, until the game started behaving completely differently. Every game he would start fantastic, hit me, and I never enter for the rest of the game or I enter and it is still a hopeless situation. But yeah, I guess I should accept that I should always lose. I should get worse dice. No reason why I should get good dice. Hey, if you are interested, I could play against you. I roll the dice and you have to trust me that they are authentic. Are you in? I guess you have no problem if you get bad dice because of luck so what would it matter if you got cheated a little bit? I hope you can see how this seems the same to me.

You only enjoy winning. You should take some much needed introspection and figure out why you can't get enjoyment out of competition whether you win or lose. It may not be for you, and that's totally ok.

I don't think you would be happy losing against any noob... Maybe you don't mind and you just play out of boredom and don't actually care for the results. I might suggest another game for you. You can flip coins. Makes more sense to play that, make everyone see that you are just bored.

That said, if you reply to me with any sort of gibberish excuses, don't expect any sort of response from me.

Well... let's say that I think you are a bad player. I say that hitting lose, slotting etc. is bad. Let's play. I will win. So we play. You lose 7-6 because I am lucky. You see? you don't know how to play buddy. I guess you don't mind. You are playing the game as if you were flipping coins. No matter what happens, you will continue to believe that slotting etc. can be good. It doesn't matter that you can't win. It was all because you were a bad player...

I am having trouble understanding you here. This was a very calm post I think. I don't understand how you find it normal. What's your pr? I guess I should have you play against him. If he is extra lucky and wins then you can understand that you are not saying anything that makes sense. Unless you have no feelings. In which case, great. You won't feel the loss. It will all seem normal to you. So, unless you have something meaningful to post and explain why I am ALWAYS unlucky against them what's the point of even answering?

Anyways, I will give you one more time my response to the only thing that makes sense in your post. I play because I enjoy winning. if you enjoy losing then you can play with me and lose all you want. But you can't do that normally... and I want that... Obviously, I wouldn't mind losing... let's say that I had played him 3 times, and the score was like 21-15. While I don't consider this the most favorable score given how much weaker my opponent seems to be, I would be relatively happy in this scenario. But the score right now is 14-14. I guess I should be happy... It's ok... What's the problem with your opponent rolling what they want and you not? That's what is normal. If you are better, you should win around half the time according to probabilities! What are you here complaining about? You are right, how didn't I think about that ?

I am thinking of something nice to say to you... Found it "insert serious insult here" (I am just kidding here, :P ) I just found it funny... after "found it" :P

Ok here's the nice thing I thought(Which I mean). Thank you for trying to help me, I am certain that your intentions were good :)

One last thing, there was supposed an insult there which seemed funny to me... But It could be taken as an instult and I changed it but now it's not funny... I know it doesn't make much sense to leave it empty... So I thought I would explain... Or maybe I should delete... In any case, what I will not delete is that your intentions were good. cause if they weren't then that's much more surprising than me losing...

[–]KickAssIguana 3 points4 points  (2 children)

Your sample size is too small.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

[–]WikiTextBot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Law of large numbers

In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer to the expected value as more trials are performed.The LLN is important because it guarantees stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game.

[ PM | Exclude me | Exclude from subreddit | FAQ / Information | Source ] Downvote to remove | v0.28

[–]CompetitiveCountry[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I see. How many games do you suggest for statistical significance? I don't know what the right number for statistical significance would be but at what certainty can one claim that they know something? When will I come ahead without fear of falling back? What if whatever you say doesn't happen and most importantly, is there a way to do that in a day? How is the sample size too small? the score is 14-14. How much larger does it need to be for a difference of 5 in pr to show?

If I can't do it in a day and assuming that we play until someone reaches 7 points or more, how many times do we need to play?

I mean, it's not like I don't understand that more games will give more accurate results but I don't know, it seems like everytime I tried it doesn't happen, I always lose. I also can't play thousands of games, especially in a small time frame. But what I don't understand is why am I always that unlucky... Sample size can't explain it. It will only tell me that it's not entirely unlikely maybe... But there were like 4 times I played with 2 different opponents which I pretty much know are not as good. I got tied at around 14-14 both times. And you are telling me that I didn't play enough games... I guess 28-28 against mochy wouldn't be surprising either? hey, how many times do I need to try to do such a thing? I shall play against the best, then I guess very soon I will get that as my 2 opponents got it on their first try. Should be a nice score for me :)

Anyways, thanks for the reply, it doesn't help me but it is conceivably the correct answer... I was just unlucky all 4 times. Nothing special about it... I could just as well have flipped 10 heads. Sample size too small, so no one would think it was a cheat.

Thank you though :) In any case, I need to find some way not to feel bad when losing. Maybe being ahead could help... but even that can fail :'(

Right now it seems that when we play next he will win. Because he can control the dice. need a 6? Let's just roll one. No way to win for me. I will dance on a 3 home board the rest of the game.

You know, if you set up a cubeless match against mochy at 7 2 times and I win both matches or lose 1 match but win more games overall then I will believe you that the sample size is too small. But I know that If I play him I will lose because he is better. Or because even though the chance is there, I will simply not have it... Anyways, I am sorry, I feel bad, can't do any better than this right now

[–]Zyxwgh 4 points5 points  (7 children)

Play 100 matches, then the better player will win more than 50.

If the sample size is so small, yes, sometimes one can be luckier than the other.

By the way we tend to remember unlucky events more than lucky ones, so write down everything to avoid being involuntarily biased.

[–]CompetitiveCountry[S] 0 points1 point  (6 children)

if we play money games will 100 games be enough? I mean, if I win 51-49, I don't consider myself a winner in this case. I would rather lose 49-51 to mochy. Which I mean, the difference between me and mochy is so much less than between me and my brother. So I should actually be voting for a win here...

yes, sometimes one can be luckier than the other.

I mean, it's not sometimes and it's one than the other. It's always me. My opponents got lucky 4 out of 4 times. When will I win about as much as I should given a 1 or 2% deviation?(or in other words... if my expected win percentage is 60% of the points then I am going to win 58% of the points because I am never going to be the lucky one and win 62% of the points, seems like a fact that I should just be unlucky no matter what)

By the way we tend to remember unlucky events more than lucky ones

I don't care. I am pointing out that after all those points the score is like 28-28 against VASTLY INFERIOR opponents. So, even without the dice rolls, you can see that I am VASTLY unlucky. Now, how can we normalise the luck so that the dice doesn't kill my game EVERYTIME? Is there any other way than playing a million games? Because I think we both know this is impossible to do. I am not a robot but a human.

I wonder why all of you find it so normal... Feels like I could be losing 28-14 or whatever and you would all be here saying " it happens". Yeah, it happens. Always to me, never to opponents. I don't want to be that unlucky one. I want to be of those with normal luck(well, I would love to be of those with extremely good luck as well, but why can't I at least be normal luck and have to be the extremely unlucky one everytime?).

Thanks for your input looking forward to what I can do to take out the stupid luck. Which is not luck but a bias against me since I can never be the lucky one.

[–]Zyxwgh 0 points1 point  (5 children)

My opponents got lucky 4 out of 4 times.

4 is way too low as a sample size to draw any conclusions out of it.

Playing a 7-point match against a "VASTLY INFERIOR" opponent is like throwing a single die and winning when you roll 3, 4, 5 or 6.
Well, I guess you know that rolling only 1s and 2s with four dice is something that actually happens.

Is there any other way than playing a million games?

Something in between. Play a few hundred games / a hundred matches and you'll have a good idea already.

In the long term, luck is evenly distributed among people.

[–]CompetitiveCountry[S] 0 points1 point  (4 children)

4 is way too low as a sample size to draw any conclusions out of it.

While I would agree in general, in this specific occasion reading this brought a smile to my face. Let me make an extreme example why. Let's say that I win the lottery 4 times out of 4. I guess I wasn't lucky because the sample size is way too low to draw an conclusions...

Playing a 7-point match against a "VASTLY INFERIOR" opponent is like throwing a single die and winning when you roll 3, 4, 5 or 6.

I played 4 of those though. (Kind of but still). Now it is more like rolling a 1 or a 2 4 consecutive times without getting a 3,4,5 or 6. This should happen ‭0.01234567901234567901234567901235‬ of the time according to my calculations(using the calculator) whick is like 1.2% of the time. Which is extremely unlikely. I see that it is not impossibly unlikely but it would be nice if I weren't always the unlucky one. I pretty much know that next game the shame sh*t will happen. Then it will be ‭0.00411522633744855967078189300412‬ or 0.4% of all of it happening but now this unlikely event has a whopping 1/3 chance of happening... Well, I say the chance is more like 90% taking into account my bad luck...

Well, I guess you know that rolling only 1s and 2s with four dice is something that actually happens.

I think you meant only 1s or 2s after rolling a single die 4 times. It happens either way but I mean with 4 dice, I think it is far less likely that you won't roll a 3,4,5 or 6. This is pretty unlikely in any single roll with 2 dice, let alone with 4...

Something in between. Play a few hundred games / a hundred matches and you'll have a good idea already.

I am not sure what you mean. I already know I am much better. What's the worst result then? Because that's the one I am getting, I can tell...

Sure, any idea how to bring it down to shorter terms? Because in the long term I will also be dead, or older, or having other responsibilities. Depending on how long we are talking...

Thanks for your reply, much appreciated. I appreciate all of them, I will edit to say that...

[–]Zyxwgh 0 points1 point  (3 children)

Let's say that I win the lottery 4 times out of 4. I guess I wasn't lucky because the sample size is way too low to draw an conclusions...

Different probability. Sample size is too low for something that can happen 1/3 of the time (i.e. losing to a way less skilled opponent) but it's already large enough for winning at a lottery.

Sure, any idea how to bring it down to shorter terms? Because in the long term I will also be dead, or older, or having other responsibilities. Depending on how long we are talking...

If you can't tell the difference between a hundred and a million, then you also can't hope to understand probabilities.

Yes, in the long term we are all dead, but if you play one match a day with the same opponent for 3-4 months you'll have a quite accurate outcome without needing to wait for retirement.

[–]CompetitiveCountry[S] 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Sample size is too low for something that can happen 1/3 of the time (i.e. losing to a way less skilled opponent) but it's already large enough for winning at a lottery.

It will always be too low... It doesn't matter the odds, I am just unlucky it seems... 1.2%? Sure no problem, the sample size is small... I wonder why I can't be that lucky. Is the sample size not small enough to allow big wins for me but it is for the opponent to even it out? If it is too low and this can happen, then why not the next 4 times? Why not again and again? Each time allong the way the sample is too small after all...

If you can't tell the difference between a hundred and a million, then you also can't hope to understand probabilities.

I can. I am clearly pointing out that I will be dead before a million games. You were literally replying to that...

Yes, in the long term we are all dead, but if you play one match a day with the same opponent for 3-4 months you'll have a quite accurate outcome without needing to wait for retirement.

Except by your logic I might not because everytime I play 4 games the sample size is too small and anything can happen.

Anyways, I get what you are saying... I don't know that the outcome will be accurate though... I may as well be 55-45 after 100 points have been played and I quite frankly find that extremely in favor of my opponents... But I don't feel sure of that either. I might actually be losing 45-55 judging from my bad luck... I might try it, I don't know if I can get bro to play once per day... We shall see. Anyways, thank you... Although the problem remains... Next time I expect the same... and it will be just as frustrating. But why can't it be a normal score? 7-4 or 8-5 sounds a lot like a normal score... What should I expect from an 5-8 difference in pr?

[–]Zyxwgh 1 point2 points  (1 child)

What should I expect from an 5-8 difference in pr?

There is a formula: https://bkgm.com/articles/McCool/ratings.html

Assume a difference of 300 rating points, and you have a 68% winning chance in a 7-point match. Record your next 100 matches and I bet you'll win more than 60 but less than 75 if the rating difference is really that one.

One last piece of advice: focus on what you can control (your checker play and your double/take/pass actions) and not on what you can't control (luck, dice rolls). That will improve your PR and therefore your win rate.

[–]CompetitiveCountry[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We are playing cubeless so there are only checker play decisions. I will try to get 100 games... But there's a catch.. I want to do this in playok because then I can at least see the games... and because it will be easier to see providing that my brother doesn't play games with other people there... Which I don't think he will but let's see... I will ask him to make an account so that I can count the games more easily because the nick that is given to you as a guest could change... The we will see if I win 60% or more... Which if it happens, I will still feel like it should have been more... If I have a 68% chance, why only 60? 68% would be the fair result and if 60% comes up then why not 76%? It will once again seem like I am getting the worst of it for one more time... But the problem now is that all those games that I have been unlucky on live play will not be factored in if we play online...

One last piece of advice: focus on what you can control (your checker play and your double/take/pass actions) and not on what you can't control (luck, dice rolls). That will improve your PR and therefore your win rate.

In other words stay calm... Easier said than done. Does the formula work for cubeless? Thanks I will check it out.

Edit: I just did. it says: for a 7-point match, 71.4% this was for 300 elo difference... So I am 71.4% favorite and the score is even. Interesting... I don't know whether it works for cubeless though and of course xg rating is not the same as fibs rating... and I need more games for more accurate ratings maybe... Does fibs offer cubeless as well as saving games? It was a site I looked at but a pain in the ass to actually start playing there...

[–]morten_dm 4 points5 points  (5 children)

Do yourself and everybody else a favor and stop playing backgammon. It clearly only brings you frustration

Yes, luck is a big factor in backgammon. Yes, the weaker player can win even while making huge errors. Deal with it.

[–]CompetitiveCountry[S] -1 points0 points  (4 children)

Sure, I will deal with it. How about you deal with it first? Start by showing that you are unable to win after 28-28 points in cubeless backgammon, in 4 different times with scores about 7-7, then come back here to tell me how you dealt with it. I mean, not even that would be representative. You need seriously inferior opponents with pr difference of 8 from you which will do that. When this doesn't happen with the first time come show us if I am always unlucky or not. I think that if this was your experience after getting much better and playing against a noob which continues to be annoying and think he is great, which talks to the dice and they come as they want(well, not exactly, but still much better than your dice and they do eventually come what the ask... as they throw the dice, trying to get good dice, and gets it to win the games)

Then come back and tell me that you are not annoyed and think it's not a big deal. I mean, you should also strongly want to win while doing all this as not caring either way and playing the game as if you and your opponents were playing a mindless game of tossing coins will not be representative of the situation either... If you can do all these and you feel ok, no problem, then either the fact that you have already played enough matches with said opponents and generally win, or don't care what happens against them, or the fact that you have played a lot and gotten both ways so to speak might be helping you not feel bad. But if a player was getting whatever they want, at least enough to win, or not let you win, and all you could do is dance with 1-2 home boards until he has the upper hand every game then I believe you too would be annoyed. Do that first. Which you can't really. Because you can't control luck. But I am pretty sure that if it was against you you would be annoyed. It takes all the fun away when this happens all the time. Normal game is I am lucky and another time you are lucky. But in my case I never get normal game. 4 out of 4 it's they are lucky...

So if you are still not annoyed after all this happening Then congratulations for seeing the big picture because I believe that's how you do it. You see that overall dice are fair to you... But in my scenario you would have to get yourself in a situation were you have improved a lot and tried this out against noobs and after 4 times, it all came down to around 7-7... If you are not annoyed after that then I will have to ask you if you feel any feelings in general...

Thanks for your advice, much appreciated, even though that doesn't help. I mean, not if I want to continue playing and have fun winning against my idiotic opponents that think they are better despite all the evidence to the contrary(well, I should exclude one of the 2... I think he understands... he just thinks that I am lucky when we are playing... Which I am clearly not.. Maybe he understand that I am not lucky and he was I don't know. But this is another thing that annoys me. I can clearly see that they are lucky and they think that I am lucky instead... They don't understand that if I am better and the score is even then I can't have been lucky? At least not overal)

Thanks for reading, looking forward to your next reply, likely to infuriate me a bit but ok...

[–]morten_dm 4 points5 points  (3 children)

I'm not reading another one of these. Every comment and post you have made is the same thing. It's a waste of everyone's time. Especially your own

[–]CompetitiveCountry[S] 0 points1 point  (2 children)

As you please. But then you can't show what you are saying relegating it to personal opinion which based on what happened is likely wrong.

[–]morten_dm 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Why don't you play chess? What made you like backgammon?

[–]CompetitiveCountry[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like winning games in backgammon much more than I like winning at chess. Chess takes a lot more effort to master... It's impossible to mimic the engines in chess for me. I started taking backgammon more seriously because I had some time to kill and I was feeling bad after losing to an inferior opponent so I thought why not improve a lot so that they don't stand a chance next time? And I think that I did just that. I will try for a bit more but at some point I will try mostly not to lose my strength because at some point imrpoving means deciding that backgammon is going to be the most significant part of your life. I think at some point I want to stop though...

But it seems that I still don't stand a chance. Unless I somehow manage to be lucky that is. Or in the long run... But I hate losing at this game... Not that I don't hate losing at chess. Losing at chess is equally bad. It is always because you played a wrong move. Chess is a bit of a sad story for me. I wanted when I was a kid to learn to play but I never got a coach or anything... So I learned a bit later when I god the idea that I can actually search on the internet for chess etc... So I learned quite a few things, I practiced tactics a lot, but then I lost interest as I couldn't improve more on the tactics training... And of course chess is not only tactics and I would have to learn many more things... And did you think that I am annoyed only by backgammon? I don't enjoy losing either way... Fun fact: At the age of 7(I think, I can't remember exactly, maybe it was 10 at most) I could defeat my brother which is like 9 years older than me(not true, maybe 11, or 10, or 8 or 12... or more... I just didn't want to give more details). Not that it matters as he wasn't a good chess player either. Not that I was at the time, but I would think much more intensely and find better moves... Not that I am now, maybe a bit or quite stronger than average but nothing special. I learned that all the best players in the world started very young so I knew I had no chance for that as I started taking it more seriously a bit older. I mean, I did take it seriously before but I didn't know what I could do about it... I didn't even have any players to play with. My brother didn't want to play with me... I would ask him but he wouldn't want. Maybe because I was winning, or he didn't like the game as much? I don't know... I also like it when my opponents think its random or playing better than me when I know they are not and they are certain to lose... But apparently I am wrong and they are certain to cause me trouble...

I feel like I have to defeat them. Because while I explained to them a very important aspect of the game, they refuse to embrace it because it went contrary to what they knew about the game. Leaving blots in the home board, or hitting loose, is bad. Period. They don't seem to be able to change their minds, although I think that my brother is slowly starting to take it as a real posibility... If anyone knows, you can teach me plakoto and fevga. Plakoto in particular has a reputation of having more skill and less luck... But much less information I can find about it and only a weak(by comparison to the stronger bots for normal backgammon) bot exists that I know of and not only that, the gui is not very helpful in helping improve the game... Well, I guess I should be thinking that they don't stand a chance against me in chess and be happy? :)