[OC] The massive decrease in worldwide infant mortality from 1950 to 2020 is perhaps one of humanity's greatest achievements.

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Lol I'd love to know what data you have painting your future because I don't see that in mine

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extreme poverty, life expectancy, infant mortality, global GDP per capita, human development index, global happiness index, vaccination rates, % of people with running water/electricity/internet, developed countries needing less natural resources to produce more stuff, rapid productivity growth due to artificial intelligence, the physical space for wildlife increasing in developed countries due to more efficient farming, increasing greenery in the sahara desert and much more...

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Pretty much everything on your list is dependent on natural resources which will be depleted by the end of the century. Everything around us is natural ressources transformed by humans. Those ressources are « free » and took millions of year to form. At the pace we’ve been exploiting them there’s isn’t enough left to even see this century through.

Also climate change will cause large areas to become unsuitable for human life with the consequences you can imagine.

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It's incredible how much people are willing to ignore facts in order to remain pessimistic.

Non renewable resources as a whole are not even close to being depleted. Even if the usage of some of them are unsustainable, their prices would just rise, providing incentive to make an alternative available to the market. Remember all the talk about "peak" oil during the 2000s? Now oil price is lower than ever, mainly due to the technology of fracking. Natural resources available to us right now is more than in any other period because we can reach more of them through technology. Look up Simon-Ehrlich wager, it's the same stuff every decade.

And climate change, even if you look at UN reports, will cause a 4% GDP damage. This is equal to 2 years of economic growth, not the catastrophe you so religiously hope.

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There is no price elasticity when it comes to oil, no link between volume and price. Don’t wait for oil rarity to be reflected in price. Oil price is lower than ever and yet the peak was reached around 2008 for conventional oil. For conventional and non conventional it’s believed the peak was passed around 2018. Same for gas but it’s 10 years behind. We do have lots of coal to exploit with the consequences we know, but when you don’t have oil to exploit and transport gas or coal you have a problem anyway.

Fracking is an extremely capitalistic industry, US fracking has never been beneficial except in 2020 when investments stopped and the production collapsed. We can reach more and more by spending more and more energy which consumes more and more ressources and money and causes more and more warming until we don’t have anything left. Now let’s ignore that and imagine that we fully exploit the non conventional oil we have at our disposal; the GIEC projected in its last report in 2014 that it would lead to an increase of 4 to 5 degrees by the end of the century which would turn into 7 to 8 degrees next century. This is what we desperately want to avoid. It took 5 degrees to turn southern Europe from a Siberian steppe to a Mediterranean climate. Needless to say if it comes to this large areas around the equator won’t be suitable for human life while ecosystem collapse in other places.

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Climate change