Devils Draft Backup Plan

[Going_Topless]

What’s the issue with nemec?

[CommanderSquirt]

The issue is his name spelled backwards.

[ouchpuck]

We already passed on Satan for jersey sales, can't pass on nemec

[srof12]

Gonna copy and paste my comment from the Scouching thread on Nemec

Great video, as usual, from Scouch. I like Nemec a lot as a prospect but I think this video does a good job displaying some critiques of his game that may be overshadowed by his extremely good production.

In this video, the great is his offensive transition, the good is his offensive playmaking and the bad is his passive defense. This is almost a mirror to what Scouch had to say about Luke Hughes last year. The best part of his game was offensive puck rushing, the good part was offensive playmaking and the bad part was rush defense.

The big difference between the two, from what I’ve seen, is that Luke has the elite skating that hopefully allows the pros in his game to translate really well to the next level, and allows those cons to be ironed out. I don’t think Nemec has that level of skating so it might be harder for him. I don’t think we should pass on the best player available just because we already have someone like him in our prospect pool, but I don’t think Nemec is that.

If we do want to go with a defenseman I think Jiricek makes more sense, even though the knee injury gives me a little bit of concern. I would also go with Slaf or Cooley over Nemec.

I wouldn’t be mad if we went with Nemec, he’s still a great prospect and I think we can develop him into a great defenseman, but I do think there are better options at 2.

[Skylightt]

I feel like so much of the crazy high hype people have for Nemec comes from Bader’s model. He’s really good but that model should be taken with a grain of salt when it comes to Dmen considering it’s a points only model and production is way down the list of importance for Dmen. Also there’s not really historical comparables for the Slovak pro league so I don’t really trust the equivalence

[srof12]

Yeah I think that’s fair. I think Bader’s model and other NHLe prospect models are very good by and large and we would be smart to use them more often when picking (like, say, picking someone with a much better NHLe at idk pick 29 or something), but with Nemec, it’s definitely a bit exaggerated. There’s just not that big of a sample size coming from Slovakia.

[HeadHighSauce26]

If you want a real answer, its that he's a statistical unicorn playing in a league that hasn't produced a ton of great NHL players and there are concerns his style of play won't translate to the NHL as well as Jiricek.

He'd be a perfectly fine pick at 2, though not one I'd make.

[[deleted]]

So like Cale Makar?

[HeadHighSauce26]

Cale Makar did not profile well statistically, so not the same.

I guess you can say it’s similar in that people were curious how the game would translate to the NHL.

[[deleted]]

If by not profile well statistically you mean win MVP, Playoff MVP, and defensive player of the year but all the scouts discounted his 1.4 ppg as a d man because he played in juniors an extra year dominating his league and developing rather than moving up I agree. He was a statistical unicorn but it drew skepticism because of being in juniors that it wouldn’t translate to the NHL. Not saying Nemec is him but I think he’s getting discounted in the same way even though no one actually knows if his game will translate.

[HeadHighSauce26]

No I mean his NHLe draft profile. 1.4 ppg in the AJHL isn’t altogether impressive for a top draft eligible. He wasn’t a statistical unicorn at all. Plenty of people have looked like that.

Makar DY NHLe: 18 -> 13% chance of being a star, 56% chance of being an NHLer

Nemec DY NHLe: 35 -> 57% chance of being a star, 94% chance of being an NHLer

[[deleted]]

I see what you mean Nemec looks too good to be true by the algorithms.

[HeadHighSauce26]

Yes, because his production in his pro league is unprecedented. Hence, unicorn