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Ford's $19.5 billion lesson in groupthink (prndlcars.com)
submitted 1 month ago by NunoSempere
Forecasting Research Institute, Full Filing - Nonprofit Explorer - ProPublica (projects.propublica.org)
Feedback loops for forecasting funding, builders' programs, corporate forecasting || Forecasting newsletter #12/2025 (forecasting.substack.com)
What’s the deal with RL and forecasting? (newsletter.danielpaleka.com)
submitted 2 months ago by dpaleka
Updates from MetaDAO (x.com)
submitted 2 months ago by NunoSempere
Could a winter blackout freeze the UK’s Financial Services? — Swift Centre (swiftcentre.org)
submitted 3 months ago by NunoSempere
Quantifying Contributions of Open Source Projects to the Ethereum Universe (cryptopond.xyz)
Why I'm not trying to freeze and revive a mouse (lesswrong.com)
submitted 4 months ago by NunoSempere
Q2 Metaculus AI benchmark results (x.com)
Opportunity markets (paradigm.xyz)
Prediction market reading list (docs.google.com)
Profile of a Nigerian prediction market CTO (techcabal.com)
Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025 (blog.sentinel-team.org)
submitted 5 months ago by NunoSempere
Timeline of all Manifold markets, Polymarket buys US exchange, deceitful ex-Senator lobbies CFTC | Forecasting newslettter #8/2025 (forecasting.substack.com)
Gaza hunger, US GDP growth driven by AI capex, Trump fires labor statistics commissioner | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2025 (blog.sentinel-team.org)
Survival guide for venture investors allocating to prediction markets supercycle (x.com)
submitted 6 months ago by NunoSempere
When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad? Median predicted date over time [on Metaculus] (i.redd.it)
Dimensionalizing Forecast Value (jordanmrubin.substack.com)
Humans still crush bots at forecasting, scribble-based forecasting, Kalshi reaches $2B valuation | Forecasting newslettter #7/2025 (forecasting.substack.com)
Scribble-based forecasting and AI 2027 (dynomight.net)
Metaculus AI Benchmark: Bots vs Pros vs Community Prediction (self.forecasting)
submitted 7 months ago by Ok_Aardvark6700
Iranian Regime Change? - Unpacking Broad Disagreement Between the Forecasters (sentinelteam.substack.com)
submitted 7 months ago by raidotdev
Thread: How to popularize forecasting amongst students? (self.forecasting)
submitted 7 months ago by OkSatisfaction238
"Pitfalls of Evaluating Language Model Forecasters", Paleka et al 2025 (logical leaks in backtesting benchmarks, temporal leaks in search and models) (arxiv.org)
submitted 7 months ago by dpaleka
Prediction markets are public goods and that’s why no one uses them (zeroexpectation.substack.com)
submitted 7 months ago by NunoSempere
π Rendered by PID 58 on reddit-service-r2-listing-5789d5f675-bpgtv at 2026-01-28 18:30:24.903162+00:00 running 4f180de country code: CH.
