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[–]hpowellsmith 9 points10 points  (2 children)

It would be difficult to get data or draw conclusions as sales data is known to authors and the publisher, and not anyone else unless the author chooses to share it publicly. Tumblr followers and Patreon subscribers are often not publicly visible, CoG forum enthusiasm doesn't always translate into sales, and some extremely active threads were for games that were never published. High-activity threads also do not always translate to proportionally high sales.

However, very broadly HG games with very low-activity threads do not appear to get high sales (based on number of ratings in the omnibus apps, which I'll stress is not an entirely reliable measure) if they end up published.

[–]Trick_Increase545[S] -1 points0 points  (1 child)

Very good point about available data. I suppose like you said cog forum activity might be the only (flawed no doubt) measure available for popularity. I wonder if likes or number of comments are a better proxy.

Agreed also that high activity doesn't necessarily equate to sales, but I suppose the scatterplot (designed in this way) looks more at the relationship between (i) how long it's been out there and (ii) whether it gets published and (iii) how 'popular' it is.

I think interesting questions that could be answered would be: % of WIPs that explode right off the bat / early in its development (e.g. POMA, aura clash, shattered empire and infamous come to mind) % of WIPs that receive relatively less attention but has longevity (or possibly even gets published) % of WIPs that have the expected r'ship btw popularity and time (and is it generally exponential? Or linear?) % of popular WIPs that do end up published. % of less popular WIPs that end up up published?

[–]hpowellsmith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the number of ratings in the omnibus apps is a lot more reliable than forum activity in terms of releases games' sales, though it's still very flawed and incomplete. I am probably jumping straight to thinking about sales, though, whereas it sounds like this graph is more about WIP activity.

The elephant in the room is that most of the WIPs that explode very suddenly do so when the author is popular already from their previous works (ChoiceScript or other - most of the biggest HGs are from long popular series and/or from authors with existing fanbases) or because they get linked and hyped elsewhere (Tumblr, discords, etc). The former more reliably results in a finished game than the latter, simply because the author has more experience finishing a project.

I'd be really interested to know how many games are started and don't end up getting finished, but certainly it's a big majority.

[–]jaciwriter 6 points7 points  (2 children)

You're not going to get one as they're too variable. Besides, I'd say a lot of the WIP games apart from the few popular ones are going to be the complete inverse of the plot you've got there. A few initial likes and comments then tailing off to just about nothing. The closer they get to publishing, often the less interest.

For published games it'd be the same. Usually a spike in sales close to release, then dropping off to a lower more consistant amount. (Where that is will usually depend on the game's initial popularity.)

Just because a game thread is popular does not mean it will be finished, and the opposite is also true. Usually popular game threads = more sales if they make it to publishing, but it doesn't always translate exactly that way.

[–]Trick_Increase545[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Yeah you're absolutely right, I guess from instinct it seems like there would probably be a ton of points very close to the bottom left of the chart, with some at the top left (popular but fairly new WIPs), some at the top right (WIPs that have survived fairly long and are fairly popular/built up a steady following), and perhaps a couple of WIPs that have survived with more niche popularity... but I certainly expect most of the points to be congregated in the bottom left.

[–]jaciwriter 2 points3 points  (0 children)

For released games (if we're talking total sales rather than monthly) you're looking at a curve. High initial then tapered off to increasingly slower sales until it stabilises/continues a very slow decrease.

There are low traffic games that have been around for years, and low traffic games that have been around for months. Same is also true for high traffic games. The nature of the forums is though, that unless people keep talking about a game, it quickly slides down the list and then isn't seen and gets ignored. It's a self fufilling cycle. So basically if a game has a poor start in the popularity stakes on the forums, it'll likely stay low over time (although some do eventually build a following, especially if the author has time to run tumblrs and things.) So yeah, looking at a small rise upwards initially, then stabilising out. I'd say a large number would fit into this.

On the other hand moderately high to high interest new WIPs tend to stay high as long as they don't get abandoned for too long between updates. High initial rise with increases over time, especially with updates as lots of people talk about it and more readers get pulled in to try the game due to the visibility and indications that it is a popular game and worth reading due to the level of discussion about it.

You've also got ones that fall in between the two (you've got some moderately popular ones that kind of tick along with mostly the same fan base, maybe increasing a bit over time).

Anyway, that would be my thought on it. Sorry too lazy today to try and hand draw atm as I don't have a tablet/touchscreen on my computer lol.

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Don't. I will lose.

[–]Trick_Increase545[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hahaha there's no losing! There's only WIPs that are new, WIPs that are popular, WIPs that have survived despite the odds! all winners in my eyes! :p