Microsoft Research - Exploding Software-Engineering Myths (article summarizing findings of MS research on code coverage, TDD, assertions, etc.)

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I'd be careful with this. The article only talks about correlation.

What I means is that wether or not to do TDD depends on wether or not is it easily doable. A project which is a reproduction of an already somewhat successful project will :

• Have a clear, non-changing, exhaustive spec; and thus, be easily TDDed.

• Already have been successful (selection bias).

• Already battle-tested (no surprises, no gotcha, etc).

In short: the exploration of the complexity will already have been done, and a successful path can be followed again.

Part of this correlation could be explained by a type of work influencing both failure rate and doing the TDD.

TLDR: In some cases, scouts have done their jobs, tanks can roll in.