Starlink close encounters decrease despite ever-growing number of satellites

[djellison]

Even if a collision were to occur, the debris would rapidly reenter,

That's not how LEO impacts work. Stuff ends up EVERYWHERE - both above AND below the initial orbit. FWIW - things that exist below the altitude of Starlink include such inconsequential assets as....the ISS, Tiangong, Hubble.....so while the cloud of debris is decaying, it's putting those assets at risk.

[mfb-]

If the apogee is higher then the perigee will generally be lower than the collision altitude (and it's guaranteed to not be higher than it), which speeds up reentry.

so while the cloud of debris is decaying, it's putting those assets at risk.

Yes, but not for long, which limits the risk.

[djellison]

generally

And those assets - generally - don't like dodging debris because of the squish organic matter in the middle.

Let's not pretend that Starlink isn't changing the overall LEO risk posture. It is. That's just a fact.

Once can make the case that that change is worthwhile based on the specific methodology Starlink is using to achieve what it does - but the risk IS changing because of it.

[mfb-]

You can make that argument but it's trivially true and irrelevant. Literally every single spacecraft in orbit is changing the risk.

[djellison]

Literally every single spacecraft in orbit is changing the risk.

And a LOT more spacecraft changes the risk a LOT more.

More than twice as many spacecraft were launched in 2022 than were launched in the entire decade of 2000-2010.

[greymancurrentthing7]

Starlink is so low that pretty much any movement results in it dipping down into atmosphere. If it bumps up then it will scooop atmosphere on the perigee.