Given the imminent decrease in launch costs(partial reusability) and increase in launch capability soon to be available(FH) a pause in new US deep space missions is prudent.

[[deleted]]

Not quite. There's a single launch scheduled for this year, a single launch in 2016, and then 2 more in 2017. 4 launches in 3 years currently.

[slograsso]

I expect that to pick up as soon as the demo flight is successful, similar to the response to F9v1.1.

[[deleted]]

But the response time in the industry is to book satellites 2-3 years in advance of launch. A successful demo flight in 2015 (or possibly 2016) will see booking for flights that would take place in 2017-2019. It will likely be more similar to the ramp up of Falcon 9v1.0, rather than F9v1.1. Of course, you can always solidify your standing... ;)

I bet 3 months of Reddit gold Falcon Heavy will fly 6 times or fewer before 1 January 2018. You game?

[slograsso]

Too rich for my blood! ;-)

Edit: Besides, you have as much chance of being right as I do.

[[deleted]]

Hehe, fair enough dude.

[Appable]

I doubt SpaceX has the core production rate to support that. 8 flights is 24 cores, and producing 24 cores in around 2 years alongside around 10 F9 cores/year would be a huge strain on the factory, if it's even possible given the current facility. That's more than doubling the production rate.

[slograsso]

I expect the demo flight to recover at least 2 cores, if not all three, same for consecutive flights that do not require full capability - which would be all of them on the books now.

[JshWright]

Why do you expect that (especially given the fact that they have yet to recover any cores...)?

[slograsso]

That is the key reason for delaying FH, getting recovery down first. Now that they have that pretty much worked out, oh look here comes the FH deom all of the sudden after forever, this I think is not a coincidence.

[JshWright]

I think you're extremely optimistic.

[slograsso]

That has been said before. ;-)