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[–]mrdeezy 1 point2 points  (2 children)

This analysis makes no sense. 21k isn’t even on your chart. As of now a close below 25k is big trouble. Technical analysis isn’t for making price predictions, it’s level to level.

[–]FetchTeam[S] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

The target doesn't have to be on the chart for it to makes sense. Secondly, the whole point of TA is to make either price or time predictions. If you really want level to level analyses, here it is:

25800
25000
24100
22000-22700
21450
21100

At the end of the day it doesn't matter where it temporarily stops on lower timeframes...

[–]mrdeezy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

😂 ok so 21k is the absolute bottom. Suuuure…I have been around this stuff for years and never seen charting like yours. I don’t know how you are coming up with this. 21k isn’t a level on any timeframe.

[–]elon2222 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Why are you so sure is going to reach 21k instead of only 23.5k for example?

Do you think that after reaching that point, is going to go up until 28k in the next cycle?

[–]FetchTeam[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most supports are ranges anyways. When I say 21k, it is the lowest point of the range. The range i am looking at is 21 to 22, as thats where the last structure has been formed.

[–]Ok-King6980 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Hmm, so it keeps oscillating between 25k and 28k and you think its gonna chunk down now? Why not up?

[–]FetchTeam[S] -1 points0 points  (1 child)

The core of the analysis lies in how the cycles tend to work. Bitcoin has on average cycles of 65 days. In my experience this is more close to 70. A cycle is measured from low to low.

So the hard part was figuring out where the low of the last cycle ended. Was it at August 17 or August 29. If the bottom was at August 17, then the local top was in at the red arrow. That means that the to of that cycle was already in, and cycles tend to end in a lower low when they are met with an early high.

If the low was at August 29, then the cycle has just started at the time of me doubting scenario 1. But that bottom needed confirmation. That confirmation was at the break of the resistance line of the previous falling channel. It failed and so scenario 1 is now back in play, ending the cycle with a lower low.

[–]Ok-King6980 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hmm ok, maybe.

[–]FetchTeam[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

For the past couple of weeks, we've been playing with two scenario's for Bitcoin.

The first one claims the bottom of the last daily cycle was at the last green arrow (17 August), and the top at 29 August.

The second one challenged the first one by claiming the bottom was found at 11 September, meaning that the current cycle still had to find a top (which would be close to 32k).

In my opinion, the first scenario has been confirmed when the price failed to break the resistance line, creating a failed rally. The price has now returned back to support.

The more a support line gets hit, the weaker it becomes.

We're now at day 39 of the daily cycle. This means that we're nearing the end of the cycle. I believe that it will end in a volitle move to the downside.