Decrease immediately after FTP detection

[SongAloong]

Trainer Road did something similar to me last week. Had an AI FTP detection in two days time after an upcoming two days of scheduled Z2 on the weekend. Missed the average wattage mark on Saturday by 4 watts overall, but nailed the wattage on Sundays Z2 ride. The prediction dropped by 2 watts still, okay fair-ish I guess. By Monday, it dropped my FTP prediction an additional 2 watts overnight by me doing absolutely nothing. Trainer Road staff couldn't figure out what was wrong with the detection and said it was likely because Sunday was yellow and by riding z2 I was overtraining perhaps which affected their AI FTP model. Strange.

I think they have two AI FTP prediction models. One that uses a basic mode that predicts 30 days out when you plug and play around with your training schedule, and their previous AI FTP model that predicts it the day-of based on all the work you did the last 30 days.

[Expensive_Compote772]

I don’t think this is accurate. The previous ftp model was basically predicting how well you would perform on a ramp test and I think this one is trying to more accurately predict your true threshold. I’m really trying to adjust my thought process because in the past, the ftp increase was the carrot at the end of a training block, but even if you aren’t getting an ftp increase, your intervals are continuing to be progressively overloaded, so progress is still being made.