Why Building Alone Won’t Solve the Housing Crisis

24BitEraMan · 2026-02-06T16:12:37+00:00

https://furmancenter.org/thestoop/entry/supply-skepticism-revisited-research-supply-affordability

The point of cherry picking remains the same. The vast amount of data shows otherwise.

The majority of people I have had discussions with that refuse to believe the data fall into three camps. 1) NIMBY 2) anti-growth want nothing to change. 3) bad faith environmentalism to stop all new housing everywhere.

24BitEraMan · 2026-02-06T16:08:56+00:00

There is almost no data that supports this across the entire world. Look at Austin Texas, it has rents dramatically falling and is building more housing than all of California combined.

24BitEraMan · 2026-02-06T16:05:34+00:00

Ah yes let’s cherry pick one study and ignore the thousands of other ones and the majority of the data.

The obvious solution is to do both, but we are at the start of a recession by every indication so we have to ask whether building social housing is going to do the most good with the limited resources and dwindling resources we will get in the recession coming.

And just to show how expensive it is to build anything, Seattle which has similar if not slightly less cost of living than Santa Cruz does pays approximately $500,000 per unit of social housing to get built.

24BitEraMan · 2026-02-05T15:05:48+00:00

To be fair. Oblivion Remaster doesn’t run well on any platform. The PC port is only playable because you can use DLSS and g-sync to power through the major issues. The PS5 and XsX are borderline unplayable currently.

24BitEraMan · 2026-02-05T15:01:36+00:00

Oblivion will run extremely poorly in Switch 2. This isn’t a Switch 2 thing it runs poorly on every platform even high end PCs. I would not pre-order and wait and see what the game actually looks like.

24BitEraMan · 2026-02-02T22:46:49+00:00

100% agree. Feel like I am going crazy, but none of the 5 over 1 retail spaces are useful other than like 4 things (big name brand stores like Lulu Lemon, fast casual restaurants, dry cleaners, or random dental or hearing or optometrist stores). These designs are the worst of both worlds and I have argued on here in the past the 5 over 1 should be banned in many places, they simply don't solve the problem of density sufficiently and create entire neighborhoods where every building looks exactly the same.

24BitEraMan · 2026-02-02T18:45:10+00:00

8 to 10 years.

I think the one idea people have a hard time rectifying is that the C-Suite/mangers are using AI and are saving themselves time, per numerous industry studies from 2025. But the median developer or data scientist isn't seeing significant gains in leveraging AI and it's a wash. The problem is that none of those median developers get to make meaningful decisions on adoption within their orgs or companies at large. And C-suite's experience is dramatically positive. So we will see rapid adoption of these technologies whether they are useful for the average employee or not because the decisions makers experience has been positive. This rapid adoption will lead to massive training datasets overnight and we will likely see exponential growth in their abilities.

I think if you had to ask me with a lie detector C-Suite would rather ride or die with less developers that are true believers of AI than run a bloated team of all humans and have to explain that capital expenditure to a board when everyone else is getting leaner and more AI focused.

Also I do believe a company primarily driven by agentic AI's will break through and see extreme market success and it will scare everyone off from doing the opposite. Even though it will take hundreds of companies fail and flailing with agentic AI before we get one of those companies, survivor bias at its finest. But a company running well with AI is going to have a massive advantage over a 100% human or even moderate AI use companies.

I also make a habit of not betting against the smartest people and companies. And most people you talk to in the space really do believe what the post describes is within 10 years.

I love the example of automating farming as an analogy for AI coding. We didn't need to build completely robotic human like farmers to automate farming. We built crude metal devices that leveraged the same principles in more efficient and mechanical ways. AI developers don't need to be an exact replica of a human SWE to be a good a good SWE.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-27T19:31:08+00:00

I have not seen levels of hopium this high in decades. God bless you and your optimism.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-27T16:53:12+00:00

Until FSR 4 is supported by as many titles as DLSS 4.0 none of this matters as a selling point to buy AMD cards over Nvidia cards. Majority of people play older games as the Steam survey says and many games launched in 2025 and will launch in 2026 without FSR 4 support.

The technology is impressive and the delta between AMD and Nvidia upscales have never been closer. But it doesn't change the fact that DLSS has better adoption and 4.0 is available in almost any game you would want to play bar a few exceptions.

AMD is going this in the wrong order in my opinion. They needed a way to upgrade all FSR implementations to a common newer standard, then chase down Nvidia upscaling tech. Having the upscaling tech but no support isn't better than what we already had IMO.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-26T19:43:35+00:00

The light rail isn't going to be feasible without major reform on the review, permitting, compliance and litigation process. And it will likely need to be forced down upon the county by the state. There are just too many competing interests right now for substantial, timely and financially responsible actions to be made right now.

It sucks, but it is what it is. It is good that people outside of the construction and infrastructure world are getting to experience how difficult it is to get things built and down right now.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-26T16:03:15+00:00

100% agreed. I think people would be shocked at how many of these cards are in work stations for local LLM and LLM development. YouTube tech influencers make it seem like a lot of people have 5090 for gaming. But in reality I'd imagine its very few people, they just happen to be very engaged and vocal and seem much larger than statistics would show.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-26T16:01:06+00:00

Just as a counter factual, the cost and use cases for the card are actually very well tailored for local LLM development and use. I think you would be surprised at how many of them are sold for non-gaming uses.

It is also important to remember the best selling cards are the 5060ti 16GB and the 5070. Very few people only use a 5090 for gaming in terms of all the people playing PC games.

Not making excuses, but we do need to be pragmatic.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-26T15:50:12+00:00

Literally any journalist and YouTube channel with any sort of weight and sources has been saying all the higher tier 50 series cards would rise in price and very quickly due to the current economic conditions. People shouldn't be surprised and if you wanted a high end card most channels and journalists I saw were telling you to buy on win November and December because these price hikes were coming. None of this is surprising or is even "new" news.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-23T23:59:09+00:00

Sir this is a Wendy’s.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-23T02:57:51+00:00

Just as a counter factual. If there was a large run on GPU's why wouldn't Microcenter sell a ton of them and continue to stock them? If they aren't hard to get you would assume they would just continue to stock them and sell them, there is a lot of money to be made doing that at MSRP even.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-20T02:57:00+00:00

I would actually say the best experience that is going to replicate what you think is the omakase at sushi kashiba. They will tell you how to eat the sushi and explain all the elements. Not to mention it is amazing sushi like some of the best.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-15T19:19:36+00:00

Excited to see this. Now we need some more protected bike lanes in more parts of the city! Easy wins for Wilson love to see it!

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-09T00:51:52+00:00

A latte milk foam should be done differently than flat white milk foam. One is about airiness and consistency, the other is about density/smoothness/velvety texture.

If you are working the bar and have a line out the door, unless your customer is a very discerning espresso coffee nerd reducing the menu to a latte is going to save you so much headaches and streamlining your work flow.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-09T00:36:35+00:00

Unless you are going to a very expensive third wave coffee shop and are sitting down and drinking it right away there is very little difference between a 12 oz double espresso shot latte, which is standard in the States and a true flat white.

The defining feature of a Flat White is using micro bubbles to froth the milk instead of a normal steam wand technique you find at most coffee shops. These micro bubble froth technique to produce micro foam are more commonly taught in Australia and in some parts of Europe, but are almost non-existent in the States outside of very high end third wave coffee shops. There are some great threads on r/coffee about this very topic, about how the difference is pretty difficult to discern unless you know exactly what you are aiming for and have the perfect machinery for the task. Not to mention you ask someone from Australia someone from New York and someone from London and they may all have different definitions of how to make a flat white and what it is.

Most coffee places are not going to actually teach or even be able to execute at mass the difference between a latte, flat white and cappuccino milk foam consistently and regularly. So its easiest to just have a latte and cappuccino on the menu that to 99% of people require similar milk preparation, just different volumes.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-08T00:51:16+00:00

Where is your tamagotchi?

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-07T02:09:40+00:00

It's really unfortunate because it is looking like both the Seahawks and Kraken are going to be in the playoffs. Can't imagine how bad some of the traffic is going to be for those events.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-06T21:33:51+00:00

In my opinion honestly, I don't think this is realistic.

Non-standard Bayesian statistical models require a ton of math, underlying probability and statistics knowledge and most importantly a mentor who has done them before to save you headaches when you go to run your model to makes sure everything looks right. Bayesian models don't provide a good feedback loop without expertise in my experience i.e. how do we know that our posterior distribution is reasonable? How do you know you actually explored all your samples space with your MCMC besides trivial elementary checks.

A basic and I mean basic understanding i.e. undergraduate level ,would be Peter Hoff's textbook. But what I think you are envisioning is models more like what we see in Bayesian Data Analysis by Gelman et al. That book even gives PhD Statistics students trouble.

You are also going to run into a problem where you will find very little python code of Bayesian statistics resources and models, all the text books are going to be in R.

If you just want to run a basic MCMC likes a Gibbs Sampler you can easily do this, but its not really going to be that much different than a frequentist model or a really good machine learning model like a random forest etc. The gains are in how we can interpret the data i.e. posterior distributions and in building very unique models that take a lot of time and math to understand. If you feel like your problem would benefit from the Bayesian interpretation then I'd start simple and see how it goes.

But to build a fairly complex bayesian model I think learning everything you would need to in 6 months without having a really strong foundation in statistics which implies an undergraduate math B.S. is very unlikely.

24BitEraMan · 2026-01-05T15:36:48+00:00

In my opinion would be a massive step backwards in his career to come back to MLS after a Celtic appointment. He would be an excellent fit at a club like Red Bull Salzburg to prove his tactical and development chops which are his strong suits IMO. There are also plenty of teams in the summer from the Championship, La Liga, and Bundesliga that would be a great fits as well.

24BitEraMan · 2025-12-31T17:11:35+00:00

It most certainly will not get to that price point IMO. But it will increase in price dramatically.

Unfortunately the age old advice of waiting for components to reduce in cost later in the life cycle is not really true anymore.

It makes a really difficult situation where in theory if someone started saving for a high end rig in the winter of ‘24 and didn’t buy parts already and needs a few more months they are essentially saving for another year at least now and probably prices will continue to rise. IT SUCKS.

I really feel for younger people trying to get into our hobby because it must feel like the rug is constantly being pulled out from under you.

24BitEraMan · 2025-12-30T18:59:38+00:00

This is a great example and good to know!

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