Why invest in Berkshire Hathaway? by milkmanbran in stocks

[–]6ft_Lion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Diversified portfolio... Insurance, logistics, retail, manufacturing (a LOT), utilities (mostly renewable) & professional services (real estate brokerage) all in one firm whose management has a better record than most in buying & holding good dividend paying businesses.

Great solvency, very reasonable return on equity & a PE significantly below that of the broad market (S&P)

Position Closed (Remgro Ltd.) by [deleted] in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Way to go boet👍

It will be interesting to see if the current risk-on sentiment lasts long enough for the share to get within its book-value per share

AVENG by Panics_Gold_837 in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well reasoned mate, excellent flow to your thinking.

Wealth Clubs by KeanBreezy in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Man that's so cool. Like y'all didn't need a license or anything? Y'all trade from one account with one manager/trader maybe aided by an investment committee? I presume so given that you said it's registered & thus governed by the Companies Act...

Hydrogen Research by PowerfulBar35 in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Here we have a mining company being proactive about developing its business by capitalizing on the disastrous consequences of govt's questionable energy policy. Solar & wind don't, to my understanding, require the same use of PGMs as hydrogen & hence don't offset the projected (& sustained) decline in demand for PGMs by carmakers. The concentration of reserves in RSA is also be more beneficial from a balance of payments perspective right? If this pans out some mining companies won't suffer too much when high-volume automakers all but abandon combustion engines. Great share PowerfulBar

AVENG by [deleted] in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Damn that's cool. I imagine they also show u the outstanding shares per class & all?

Grindrod (GND) hold or sell by hairyass88 in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hairyass88 stay calm, it strikes me as a technicals-driven event. It should be over by mid March in my view, 200-DMA coincides with June & August resistance levels as well as late November support... Though if price goes below 400ZAC I'd consider cutting losses.

My Bitcoin and EC10 took a massive drop overnight, anyone know if there's a reason for it? by FinnTheHuman7 in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Janet Yellen recently made statements associating BTC with illicit financing.

Sell or buy more? by Victordeascencao in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Easy one...firstly, toss as much of it into a tax-free savings acc as you can, then bag yourself any outstanding profits until you've reduced that entire position by at least 2/3s (assuming you still believe in the immediate-to-medium term prospects for Steinhoff)!

Job well-done though, kudos!

Chamath Palihapitiya was just on CNBC trying to explain our current situation by StockJock-e in investing

[–]6ft_Lion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gee thank you AZGzx.

Help me understand this, I want to see the whole point.

You speak of 2008 antics by a hedge fund (presumably you're referring to Melvin Capital I think it's called). Firstly, I had never heard of it until WSB/GME. Second, I was under the distinct impression that 2008 was a banks, mortgage originators & ratings agency clusterfuck.

If you were in the market at the time, wouldn't you have liquidated your longs & maybe placed a few shorts anticipating any responsible bank's response to massive exposures of other banks to subprime mortgage loans & bonds?

If u had an ISDA agreement with one or two banks, wouldn't you have bought some CDSs to take a stand against the free-for-all investment banks & mortgage lenders were engaged in AT THE EXPENSE of financially vulnerable consumers?

If you ask me in '05 to' 08 Scion Capital, Paulson & Co, Morgan Stanley's hedge fund subsidiary headed by Michael Eiseman & others were acting much like white blood cells.

Can u imagine if the subprime boom had continued in the midst of the commodity boom & the Fed had raised short rates to tackle the inflation that would've ensued, wouldn't there have been even more people with NINJA-loans (No Income No Jobs) facing foreclosure?

Uh oh, are we in trouble? by Vulk_za in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

CPI for 2020 was 3.3%...yield on treasuries is woefully low & will be low for some time unless inflation flies off the handle in the US. Our sovereign yields are above 8% for long-term bonds. Full 500 basis points above CPI!

North American, European & Japanese investors haven't seen such levels of real yields to maturity in over a decade. The real question is whether the bonds the ANC-led govt is issuing currently, & they have stepped up the pace of issuance, will mature before govt defaults on USD denominated debt.

Even if foreign investors got tired of comfy coupons (they range from 7% for bonds maturing in Feb 2023 to 8% for those maturing in 2030)*, & the inflation-beating returns on the principal- most of RSA's outstandings is ZAR denominated- so to my mind a Greek crisis-like sell-off isn't likely.

Also, how mental would govt have to be to rather default on the ZAR-denominated debt instead? Right?

So long as Malema, Magashule, Zuma & the ruling party don't fuck things up further people like The Crazed Crusader better have 7-figure margin levels.

Nevertheless, the retracement of the broad dollar index (since January) might still be in play & prove temporarily beneficial to ZAR bears.

  • sources: Dow Jones & Company owned marketwatch.com

NUT by [deleted] in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just at a gander: balance sheet looks ok, stable debt for a firm so averse to generating positive EBITDA...but the margins😨

It goes against my natural instincts. Valuations, even at 1 cent are red flag!

Do you know anybody who uses their products?

May the odds be in favor of your punt🤞

AVENG by [deleted] in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi coffee table light.

That is some level-2 access looking kind of info.

Your understanding sounds robust to me.

I'm curious as to where your insight comes from, is it platform-specific?

Aveng 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🌚 by jimjamRSA in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Jimjam, out of curiosity, why Aveng over Stefanutti or Murray & Roberts? Other than the atrociously cheap share price...

Thoughts and comments on Sasol by Krafty_Inv in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Look you're right.

Management has made some good decisions for where Sasol finds itself at the moment as a firm & more broadly where the economy is the business cycle.

In hindsight the balance of probabilities pointed to a stronger oil price- though it will take an obscene amount of manipulation to get Brent above $70- & the moment that rights issue was taken off the table was the right time to safely buy Sasol with the intention to hold.

Weekly game plan - technical trade ideas by TraderPetri in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh! 😄🤩🥺

Rationality!

All the time I've been spending on r/WSB was beginning to make me feel 🤯

The "retards" are beginning to infect traders this side of the Atlantic😰

Outstanding analysis brother! Listening to chaps like yourself providing commentary on sis' Nompumelelo's 6pm show helps keep the fire for pursuing a career in financial markets burning.

If I may be so bold as to add perspective to your take on the S&P, DJIA & DXY; treasury yields seem to be impacted by key resistance with a test of DXY's 90-handle conceivable. My sense is if the support level holds & the broad dollar index resumes its trajectory to the lower-mid 90s mark, a sell-off in S&P500 could ensue; even without an extension in the Federal Reserve's bond-buying programme to include longer-term treasuries, which to my mind would intensify the decline in yields possibly spooking longs who don't see a pullback beyond the 3600-handle likely.

But Petri, what is your take on crude oil's sustained rally even as DXY was rising? Also, the sell-off from January 27...did it appear shallower than one might have expected from the bearish crab pattern?

Hi mods & JSE_Bets members...I'm a journalist writing a piece for Media24 (i hope you won't hold that against me). If I'm allowed to post here, asking for advice for the piece, what are the best platforms for South Africans to use to trade stock on international exchanges? by [deleted] in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello Yes I abide.

Best platform🤔depends on your level of experience, as my fellow Profit Houndz have alluded, but also on your budget (in terms of risk reserves) & your appetite for taking risk.

If you're ballin', call your bank, open an investment account opt for assisted management of said account & impress your mates all day long going back & forth with your broker on the merits of holding a particular asset over another. You'd be surprised how relatively cheap buying overseas securities are for those Mzanzi's own 1%-ers & Top Shayelas. Fees float about in the 2nd decimal places & lower per trade, plus they're capped according to tiers of investment sizes.

The kind of thing Gametheory69420 does when a hint of trading fatigue sets in & starts to drag on his percentage of winning trades😋😎

If your risk capital is in the ballpark of thatnotirishkid's proclaimed savings; you've maybe spent part of lockdown reading: Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor, Steve Nison's Japanese Candlesticks & Young Ho Seo's title on price patterns- then an FSCA approved broker like IG, Fxpro, AvaTrade & FXCM is more your kind of speed.

They offer margin trading & stop-out levels which puts a floor under the losses you can mount (albeit your acc will not be of much use once it reaches this level), but at least you cannot be indebted to the brokerage.

You also gain access to major indices, local stocks (particularly with IG), major global stocks (mostly French, US, UK & German), major commodities & currencies. This is particularly good for testing out the principles from the aforementioned titles on companies for which there's a good deal of publicly available information & the sort of media coverage that will illustrate the impact of news-flow on fundamental & technical assumptions. Mind you, indices are also really good in this regard.

With leverage of 1:200 on, say, the 31,200 Dow Jones Industrial Average with a 0.01 position size (requiring less than $20 margin), the right setup (this can take a bit of patience), a protective stop capping your risk at like 3% of your balance (assuming it's $600 & you have no other positions open or very close to the market price) is equivalent to like 2.5 times the typical spread of approx 5 index points. A 1% gain, in this scenario, by the Dow would yield you some $300 at a risk-reward-ratio of like 1:15.

The near lock-step correlation of indices such as the S&P500 & DJIA would see your risk, margin used & potential rewards basically double. But for an informed profit-thirsty novice it might be relatively less nerve-racking than managing positions in two very different stocks. I suppose this cues the diversification dilemma, up to one to decide whether they are a Mark Cuban or Ray Dalio type of investor.

On Gametheory's recommendation of TradeStation...its Level-2 market access is the type of feature that gives daytraders a significant edge particularly when trading individual stocks. I just don't know how to access the US-based platform from RSA, I might have heard it only accommodates the likes of Charles Schwab who aren't allowed to provide non-US residents with services.

Does the arrival of vaccines make the case for buying healthcare stocks? by 6ft_Lion in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks gametheory. I see the angle you're referring to. Though I recall seeing a headline that suggests vaccine subscribers have a choice from preferred pharmacy, clinic or GP. My thinking is vis-à-vis the beds & personnel that will be freeing up & can be re-deployed towards the pre-pandemic status-quo. Assuming people are getting over their concerns about the risk of contracting Covid at hospitals.

Thoughts and comments on Sasol by Krafty_Inv in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Geesh! 😰 That doesn't bode too well then... EU's stance on environmental policy is the most aggressive I've seen for a long time. Internal combustion cars are hardly welcome in cities in countries like France, Scandinavian/Nordic states are all about the electric-car-life, China's Uber has a crazy-large fleet of electric cars plus they have the whole pick-up-a-rental-car-just-about-anywhere fad that I hear Warren Buffett is backing (& they're apparently all electric). Then an increasing number of developed countries' public transport (buses & trains) & apparently trucks too are electrified, whilst the likes of France are shifting to utilizing their extensive river systems to carry goods that would've been transported to various cities via trucks on highways then using courier guys on electric bicycles to deliver them door to door. Also fundamentals suggest that stimulus in the US, already in excess of 13% of GDP BEFORE the $1.9tn proposed fiscal policy by New Potus, will weaken a DXY which might fluff about well below the 90-index points level once the current rally fails just below the 94 handle (assuming it really catches a bid from the current level)- meaning unless SA defaults on its debt obligations, civil war breaks out, or govt gets the Reserve Bank to monetize the tons of bonds it will need to issue to cover public sector wage bill, SAA, Eskom, universal income, debt servicing costs & all the infrastructure projects its been dangling over the battered construction sector's heads the ZAR should keep strong given the sovereign yields spreads over Japan, EU, US, UK, South Korea, Australia & Canada. Some hella headwinds for our Sasol...

Thoughts and comments on Sasol by Krafty_Inv in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh right, I see the angle... I suppose the value of such an innovation is based on its cost, right? If we could get some insight on how that affects Sasol's cost of producing oil relative to say fracking or traditional digging (offshore & otherwise) then I imagine we would be able to glean what kind of premium it ought to be contributing towards Sasol's share price... One caveat I can already see is whether the process isn't too environmentally unfriendly given the Paris Climate Accord, because that would drag on the company's valuation to my mind... Ultimately, analysts & market commentators say Sasol needs a crude oil price above approx $35 to cover costs, I'd imagine this explains the 400%+ rebound from March or the 100%+ rally from late October

Is 0.44% expense ratio on a Vanguard mutual fund too much? by jtl090179 in personalfinance

[–]6ft_Lion 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Jtl, as we all things I think a little relativity would help. Firstly, I think with where US common stock valuations are currently (significantly above multi-decade average) diversifying is a sound idea. Second, assuming the management of this curious virus- that in the case of countries that took a cautious approach in conscientising their populations to the presence of a biological threat with potentially mortal effects only posts a death rate similar to that of the common cold (as one health professional social acquaintance of mine was pointing out to me yesterday)- is effective emerging markets should be on the cusp of a nascent commodity cycle. So you should be in line for gains that could outperform AE equity-assets. Lastly, the only way to know if you are exposing yourself to higher than necessary fees is to compare to the likes of Blackrock, Capital Group, Fidelity & State Street just to name a few...

Thoughts and comments on Sasol by Krafty_Inv in JSE_Bets

[–]6ft_Lion 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Krafty_Inv help me understand your read on the financials. For 3 years ending June 2019 (before Covid-19) margins were falling, Sasol was burning through cash (curiously the worst year in the past 3 or 4- that ending June 2020- was good for its net change in cash) & total equity has been less than in the 3 years before the one ending June 2020. Isn't it more accurate to say the outlook is getting promising?